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NEW CLASSICAL ECONOMICS

NEW CLASSICAL ECONOMICS. By : TAJIDAN. The new classical vission. Classical doctrine. Walras Model. fully employment optimally allocated . Failed to explain the business cycle. Walras law. Demand = supply ( keseimbangan )—market clearing Ekses demand = 0

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NEW CLASSICAL ECONOMICS

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  1. NEW CLASSICAL ECONOMICS By : TAJIDAN

  2. The new classical vission Classical doctrine Walras Model • fully employment • optimally allocated Failed to explain the business cycle

  3. Walras law • Demand = supply (keseimbangan)—market clearing • Ekses demand = 0 • Keseimbanganparsial : hrs memasukkanwalras model • Input optimal • Produsen : makskeuntungan…fs supply • (alokasi input optimal) • Konsumen : maks utility –fs demand • (anggarandialokasikan optimal) • Dlm model : tdkadaresesi, dll (business cicle,…gagalmenjelaskansiklusbisnis/ekonomi

  4. Keynes • Keynes : tdkada full emplyment • Tdkadakeseimbangan • Adaeksesdemand,Ekses supply • Peransertamasyarakat • Klasik • Pelakuekonomirasional • Ramalanharga (adaekspektasirasional),

  5. Klasik • Ekspektasirasional • Pe = E (pt) + E (ee) • Menentukanpesesuairasionalnya • ApabilaPe = E (pt) maka E (ee)= 0 • E(pt) = a = bpt-1 + bpt-2 +… • Efiensipasar…mampumenentukanhargadengantepat • Hargasangatfleksbel • Kenyataan : ekspektasi modal tdksempurna

  6. The new classical vission Walras Model Capitalism economic • fully employment • optimally allocated Failed to explain the business cycle

  7. 3 Distinctiness argument Fundamental group Infer the uselessness of Walras Model and the Classical theory as a whole Imperfectionists group Imperfectionists group Explain business cycle by some imperfectionists of Classical Model The New Classical Economic The New Classical Economic ?

  8. The New Classical Economic Mengkritikkonsep “imperfectionists” Keynes Disequilibrium phenomena Dimanapasaradalahberadadalamkondisipersaingansempurnadanekspektasinyaadalahrasional Equilibrium phenomena

  9. The New Classical Model Characteristic • Hargasecarasempurnafleksible • Gangguandalamsistemperekonomianmenyebabkanexpectasitidakterbuktisehinggadapatmeningkatkanfluktuasi • Semuaorangberhati-hatidalammenentukan Rational expectation

  10. The New Classical Model Aggregate Commodity Demand :john mutt Yᵈt = At + b . (mt – pt ) + ut Keterangan : Yᵈ = permintaanbarang A = permintaanpemerintahan b = konstanta m = nominal cash balance / jumlahuangberedar p = tingkatharga

  11. Klasik • Dalamklasik: tdkadadikotomipasarbarang, pasaruang, dll • Money supply naik…kenaikanharga

  12. Aggregate Commodity Supply Keterangan : Ys = persediaanbarang yang ditawarkan Y* = tingkatproduksi yang berhubungandengantingkatpengangguran c = konstanta pt = tingkatharga pt* = harga yang diinginkan vt = disturbances Ys = Y* + c . ( pt – pt* ) + vt

  13. Pt = pt* === menujukkanekspektasirasional • Pt –pt* • Pe* = E (pt) + E (ee) • E (ee) = 0 • MakaPe* = E (pt) • Pe* = Pe • Ys = Y* ====employment (agregat supply = Agregate demand) • Unemployment ygdimaksud …voluntary (menganggurkrninginmemaks leisure = Oppurtunitycostnyalebihbesar leisure

  14. Kondisiinilah yang diharapkanoleh sector swasta Ys = Y* + c . ( pt – pt* ) + vt Ys = Y* Unemployment prevails

  15. Yᵈt = At + b . (mt – pt ) + ut Ytᵉ = Atᵉ + b . (mtᵉ – ptᵉ ) Ys = Y* + c . ( pt – pt* ) + vt Ys = Y* + c . ( pt – pt* ) + vt Ytᵉ = Y*

  16. Based on the formulas • Tingkat produksiriildapatdiketahuijikatidakterdapatgangguanataupuntindakanpemerintah yang tidakterduga • Kenaikanhargadanproduksidipengaruhiolehkenaikanpengeluaranpemerintah • Supply shock dipengaruhioleh variable vt (stochastic disturbance)

  17. Phillips-curve? In New Classical Economics, it has negative relation Output Unemployment

  18. Kurvaphilipsdrkeynes • Dikritikolehklasik: tdkada hub inflation dgnpengangguran • Berapuninflasi, penganggurantetap (vertikal, lurus)

  19. Political Inference

  20. moneter • TeoriAkselerasimonetertdkberlakudiklasik • Pertumbmoneterygdidesain • KebijakanMoneter : anticipated …mengikuti model klasik • Unanticipated ..mengikutimoneteris ..memberikan real effect ---adaptifekspectation(keterlambatan) • Kebijakanmoneteryglangsungdiantisipasiolehmasy ( misal :turunsukubungalangsungdirespondenganmenariktabungan)

  21. Klasik • Tingkat bunga • Money supply naik..sukubungaturun (kalautdkdiantisipasi) • Kalaumasymengatisipasimakapenurunansukubungaakanmenarik tab ..sehinggaakankembalikeatas (sukubungaakannaiklagi) • Investasi --- menhghendakisukubungarendah,

  22. The core of new classical “bahwakebijakanpertumbuhanmoneterdapatmempengaruhikenetralanuang, merupakansesuatu yang sangattidak relevant, meskipunaturan Friedman melekatpadanya” Kebijakanmoneter, tidakefektif

  23. Monetary policy

  24. Fiscal policy • Pemerintahmenurunkanpajakdanmenjualsurat-suratberharga • Masyarakatakanmembeliobligasidan bond • Masyarakatmerasakaya • Tingkat konsumsimeningkat • Saatpemerintahharusmembayar bond danobligasikepadamasyarakat, makapemerintahmenaikkanpajak Keynesian Theory Theory of Portfolio Selection The New Classical Theory

  25. Neo klasikal • Kebijakanfisal : penrunanpajak … C naik..Y perushnaik…Demand uangnaik..sukubunganaik (fiskalilussion) • AT = AB ..fiskaltdkadadampak • Moneterjugatdk • Moneteraris : moneterbolehdaneffektifkalautdkadaantisipasi

  26. jelaskan : BOP • Mundellfleming

  27. New classical theory (klasik)

  28. Terimakasih Durrotulain

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