Next Generation Services and User Needs

1. Next Generation Services and User Needs Martin Potts Martel martin.potts@martel-consulting.ch

2. The Dangers of Predicting the Future “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home” Ken Olsen, President of DEC (1977) “640K ought to be enough for anybody” Bill Gates Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

3. www.ngni.org Topic Working Groups Results IST Collective Awareness & Dissemination Benchmarking Reports Roadmaps Mini- Projects NGNI members Standards Input & Feedback Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

4. Roadmap: The Evolution of Telecommunications Networks • What do we want networks to do ? • What are the factors that influence how networks evolve ? • What trends can be identified ? Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

5. What do we want networks to do ? Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

6. There are many suggestions of what future networks should do better than they do today (eg. from ETSI, ITU, companies, individuals, ...). There is no common definition of a “Next Generation Network”, but there is some general agreement that they should support the following service models: - support an increasingly networked society: -> communication anywhere, anytime, using any medium that is always online -> seamless interoperability (devices and services are platform-independent: eg. fixed / mobile, and telephone / PDA / PC / Television) …… need for standards Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

7. Accessing the Internet - Today’s options POTS ISDN Internet Backbone xDSL Internet Access Points (IAP) IAP Cable TV Optical Wireless ISP Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

8. - bring services to customers in a way that is: -> in accordance with the trend to separate the roles of the various stakeholders involved, eg. Service Providers, Network Providers, Content Providers -> future-proof (the easy incorporation of new services and network technologies) - support levels of QoS (in terms of delay, jitter, loss, reliability, availability) - support security - faster Internet access(where is the bottleneck? … and is the problem really speed or prioritisation?) - be simpler/cheaper to operate/maintain/manage Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

9. What are the factors that influence how networks evolve ? Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

10. Evolution Factors User behaviour and usage trends General technology Society advancements Visions & Evolution of core Economic Scenarios and access networks trends Evolution of terminals Business Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical challenges …….. Individual Architecture and topology Protocols evolution Technology technical Management development aspects Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

11. Evolution Factors User behaviour and usage trends General technology Society advancements Visions & Evolution of core Economic Scenarios and access networks trends Evolution of terminals Business Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical challenges …….. Individual Architecture and topology Protocols evolution Technology technical Management development aspects Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

12. User Behaviour and Usage Trends - Telecommunications Service Evolution: Telex Broadband data Packet switching Circuit switching Telemetry Teletext Fax Internet Web E-mail Telenewspaper Telephony Teleconference Videoconference Videotelephony Mobile videophone GSM, GPRS, UMTS Mobile text (SMS) MMS Mobile fax WAP Mobile data Mobile videotext Paging Stereo hi-fi sound Colour television Stereo television HDTV Digital networks: Packet switching Circuit switching Optical fibre Telex Data: low speed high speed Telegraphy Telephony Fax Videoconference Radio Mobile telephony Paging Television Colour Television 1847 1877 1920 1930 1960 1975 1984 2003 Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

13. User Behaviour and Usage Trends - Increasing use of Internet-based services, but demanding more than just Internet access - Increasing emphasis on mobility and roaming - Increasing use of peer-to-peer applications and group communication - End-user content creation - Less-obtrusive hardware, that exploits the existence of more embedded sensors and communication between embedded devices Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

14. User Behaviour and Usage Trends - Flexibility: - same data to be available on different devices - terminals and services to be transportable between networks - a “one-stop shop” for billing - Services that are integrated, interactive, cost effective (SMS!), easy to use and with filtering features (Ambient Intelligence) - Higher bandwidths (eg. for entertainment services, gaming, …) - QoS (availability, reliability, speed, synchronisation, …) - Security Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

15. Broadband and Mobility • Broadband: • - Internet access capability is doubling every 2 years for no increase in real cost to the end user • - A downstream throughput of 1 Mbit/s is now common for many residential users – a rate which was unimaginable for most people 10 years ago • A similar increase over the next 10 years is expected (predicted 70% broadband penetration in Western Europe by 2010, up from 10% today) • … however, in parallel to wanting more bandwidth, users are wanting to communicate without being physically wired to the network Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

16. Broadband and Mobility Mobility: - Public GSM access networks have been installed to handle the huge demand for mobile telephony and Internet access, but the bandwidth is low compared with that available from a fixed access line - GPRS and UMTS promise improvements, and the addition of data to traditional voice services (convergence ?) which is expected to lead to a range of new services - Ultra Wideband (155Mbit/s) - Ad-hoc networks WLAN is already emerging as a serious contender: Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

17. Broadband and Mobility • Mobility: • - Developed for the private LAN area, WLAN is a simple and cheap technology that offers a bandwidth that even exceeds what is available on many wireline connections • WLANs are being installed by network operators to satisfy Internet access in public “hot spots”, thereby blurring the boundary between public and private networks • WLANs are expected to generate about 10% of the revenue of 2.5/3G systems (Analysys) Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

18. QoS • - The debate on QoS in the Internet has been running for more than 10 years, but only the “easy” solutions are implemented. 3 Overprovisioning (only a solution for the backbone) 3 Exploiting the capabilities of the lower layers (MPLS) ? Priorities (DiffServ) ? Explicit signalling (RSVP) ? NSIS • Is there a business model ? • Who is willing to pay for it ? • What services do we expect the Internet to carry ? • The same service used on a different terminal, or transmitted over a different access network, will require different QoS values • Can it be solved with adaptive applications ? Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

19. Ambient Intelligence - Users are interested in ever more sophisticated devices that inter-communicate, independent of the current network to which they are attached, but the complexity must be hidden - NGNs should provide the basis for the transparent provision and discovery of services that can be made available in an ad-hoc manner locally or remote to a dynamic group of customers. The criteria for service discovery can be the physical or network position (Location-Based Services), and can also exploit User Profiling technology in order to allow for subjective and community oriented discovery criteria Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

20. Ambient Intelligence - Elaborate (composite) services can be provided to the user via an intelligent service location and configuration mechanism. A single query is translated automatically into a range of service location requests which are in turn resolved. This mechanism will further support the need for context computing and stronger focus on the needs of the customer by resolving service related complexity automatically. Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

21. User Behaviour and Usage Trends Where is the intelligence nowadays ? - Intelligence at the core is giving way to intelligence at the edge, due to the performance capabilities of network elements - enables new services to be added quickly by “anyone” (Internet Model) Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

22. User Behaviour and Usage Trends Gradual transformation from vertically to horizontally integrated networks and services - the traditional “one-operator-does-it-all” is giving way to specialist service providers operating on specific network functionality layers (eg. dark fibre providers, local access providers, content providers, roaming brokers, …) Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

23. User Behaviour and Usage Trends ACTORS SERVICES FUNCTIONS End Usage Service User Applications Network Customer Advanced/complementary services Service Brokerage / Value-added Service provision Service Provider Basic services Network Provider Network supply and operation Bearer services Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

24. User Behaviour and Usage Trends For more details of the separation of the roles of Service Providers and Network Providers, and how the interaction can be formalised through SLAs, see: www.cadenus.org Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

25. Service Authority Service Directory Service Types Service Provider Service SLA Mediator Services Access Service SLA Mediator Mediator Services . AAA . Presentation SLS . AAA . Subscription . Directory/yellow pages . Preferences lists . Services menu Resource Resource . User profile Resource Mediator SLS Mediator . Terminal types Mediator ( per administrative domain) ( per administrative domain) per administrative domain) Network Controller . Traffic engineering ( per technology domain) . Terminal localisation Network Controller . Terminal capability ( per technology domain) . Network capability Network Controller ( per technology domain) Access Network Backbone Network Provider Provider Next Administrative Domain Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

26. User Behaviour and Usage Trends Service Providers are also “users”. They require: - a fast and open service creation platform - the capability to inform end-users of the services that are available - QoS guarantees from the network regarding availability, throughput, delay, delay variation (jitter), loss - security - the ability to adapt services according to the available network QoS or device type/capabilities Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

27. Evolution Factors User behaviour and usage trends General technology Society advancements Visions & Evolution of core Economic Scenarios and access networks trends Evolution of terminals Business Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical challenges …….. Individual Architecture and topology Protocols evolution Technology technical Management development aspects Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

28. Wireless Market Trends • Europe: 2000-2001 • Overall ARPU decreased by 30% • Voice ARPUdecreasingOverstocked market • Data ARPU increased by 93% • Europe: 2002-2005 • With voice ARPU diminishing, operators will rely on VAS deployment strategies in order to keep growth ARPU = Average Revenue Per User Source: “Mobile@Ovum”, July 2002 Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

29. Business Models, Societal andEconomic/ PoliticalFactors The Value Network for Mobile Services Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

30. Evolution Factors User behaviour and usage trends General technology Society advancements Visions & Evolution of core Economic Scenarios and access networks trends Evolution of terminals Business Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical challenges …….. Individual Architecture and topology Protocols evolution Technology technical Management development aspects Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

31. IP: Some Open Issues Customer Perspective Telephony, VoD, IP-VPN Audio/video, broadcast, e-commerce WWW, File transfer, Games, On-line shopping, E-mail, etc Convergence Mobility QoS (especially inter-domain) Terminal proliferation IP “Always on” Security Encapsulation / Integration FTTx, xDSL Broadband access IP over ? PSTN/ISDN, MPLS, IP-net, etc Encapsulation / Convergence Optical network (DWDM) Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

32. Evolution Factors User behaviour and usage trends General technology Society advancements Visions & Evolution of core Economic Scenarios and access networks trends Evolution of terminals Business Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical challenges …….. Individual Architecture and topology Protocols evolution Technology technical Management development aspects Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

33. Conclusions Some user behaviour and usage trends have been identified by the EU IST project NGN-Initiative Some key requirements are for: Interoperability Convergence (onto the same terminals) More sophistication (but hiding the complexity) Broadband Mobility Peer-to-peer (user-generated content) QoS Security Service and network separation will encourage innovative services, but requires standards (see CADENUS project) Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

34. Thank you for your attention Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?