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Impacts de la crise mondiale sur les enfants en Afrique de l’Ouest et du Centre

Impacts de la crise mondiale sur les enfants en Afrique de l’Ouest et du Centre. Burkina Faso : Lacina Balma and Samuel Kabore Cameroon : Christian Emini and Paul Ningaye Ghana : Theodore Antwi-Asare, Edgar Cooke and Daniel Twerefou

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Impacts de la crise mondiale sur les enfants en Afrique de l’Ouest et du Centre

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  1. Impacts de la crise mondiale sur les enfants en Afrique de l’Ouest et du Centre Burkina Faso: Lacina Balma and Samuel Kabore Cameroon: Christian Emini and Paul Ningaye Ghana: Theodore Antwi-Asare, Edgar Cooke and Daniel Twerefou Regional: Sami Bibi, John Cockburn, Massa Coulibaly, Ismaël Fofana and Luca Tiberti Commissioned by UNICEF’s West and Central Africa Regional Office The global economic crisis – Including children in the policy response ODI-UNICEF, London, November 9-10, 2009

  2. The Poverty and Economic Policy (PEP) Research network • Capacity building, research funding and promotion of developing country researchers • Research grants (and scientific support)to conduct policy research on poverty issues. • Open and competitive global call for proposals (deadline: Jan. 6, 2010) • 150 projects in Africa, Asia and Latin America (45.7% female; 22.5% under 30): Since 2002 • Activities: training workshops, study visits, distance support, general meetings, national and international policy conferences, working papers, journal articles, policy briefs, presentations in international conferences, newsletters. • Child welfare topics: Policy impact evaluation, community-based poverty monitoring, macro-micro shock and policy simulations, multidimensional poverty analysis, implementing the capabilities approach, incidence analysis… • Offices: Africa (Dakar), Asia (Manila), Latin America (Lima) and Quebec. • Funding: AusAID, CIDA and IDRC www.pep-net.org

  3. Objective: Simulate child welfare impacts of the global crisis and policy responses in Burkina Faso, Cameroon and Ghana (and S. Africa) Impacts Export prices/demand National economy (CGE model) Import prices Input prices Employ-ment Producer prices Consumer prices FDI Foreign aid Household (micro models) Child welfare: monetary poverty, hunger, schooling, labor, health Remittances

  4. Methodology Macro impacts: CGE model capturing main channels of impact of the global crisis on the national economy, notably prices, wages and employment. Child welfare impacts Monetary poverty: Based on changes in prices, wages, employment and remittances Hunger (caloric adequacy): Consumption behavior + nutritional tables School/child labor participation: Econometric estimation: f(real income) Health access/choice of supplier: Econometric estimation: f(real income) Simulations Business as usual (no crisis): historic trends (6-8 years) Crisis 2009: Various sources (IMF, UNCTAD, national, etc.) 2010: Stagnation, except import prices 2011: Back to historic growth trends Policy response (financed by foreign aid equal to 1% of 2008 GDP) Food subsidies Child cash transfers: proxy means, no administrative costs, sharing

  5. Impacts on monetary poverty and hunger in BF

  6. Education and Child Labour: 6 to 10 years

  7. Education and Child Labour: 11 to 14 years

  8. Health: 0 to 14 years

  9. Targetting (proxy means) Cash transfers target predicted poor children = f(demographics, housing conditions, durable goods, region): easily observable and non-manipulable characteristics Exclusion errors Inclusion errors Cash transfer amount Burkina Faso 12340 CFA francs per child Cameroon: 21065 CFA francs per child Ghana: 23.10 cedis per child

  10. Impact of the global crisis on child povertyin West and Central Africa Take-home lessons Crisis brings many shocks: imports, exports, FDI, aid, remittances Complex impacts: wages, employment, self-employment income, consumer prices Strongly increases monetarypoverty and hunger (up to 10 percentage points) Mildly reduces schooling and recourse to (modern) health services (up to 1 percentage point), while increasing child labor Food subsidies marginally offset the impacts of the crisis (Well-) targeted cash transfers are far more effective (Pursuit of fiscal balance further (slightly) worsens the impacts) Future work: focus subsidies on poor child foods, focus CTs on youngest children, other financing (domestic taxes, deficit, other cuts), other dimensions (mortality, morbidity, nutritional status, etc.)

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