Making Democratic Governance Work: The consequences for prosperity

1. Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Mongolia Making Democratic Governance Work: The consequences for prosperity Pippa Norris www.pippanorris.com April 5, 2012 Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

2. Structure • Theoretical framework and debate • Does democratic governance expand wealth? • Four theories: skeptics, state-building, democratic promoters and unified perspectives • Concepts, evidence and research design • Large N cross-national time series data 1984-2004 (country-year) • Paired cases: Haiti and Dominican Republic • Analysis, results and cases • Conclusions and implications

4. I. Debate: What causes growth and human development?

5. Unified theory • False choices: • Need for simultaneous balance in strengthening both democracy and governance • Liberal democracy: • Channel for public demands and state accountability • Bureaucratic governance: • Capacity to respond to these demands with provision of public goods and services (health care, schools, etc)

6. 2. Concepts, evidence and research design

7. Governance capacity • Governance: • The capacity of regime authorities to perform functions essential for collective well-being. • Weber: • The capacity of the state to protect citizens living within its territory and to manage the delivery of public goods and services • Measured: • PRSG’s Quality of Government index combines three components: (1) Bureaucratic Quality; (2) Corruption, and; (3) Law and Order. • 100 pt standardized scale 1984-2004 • Dichotomized into patronage and bureaucratic states

8. Liberal democracy • Liberal democracy: • The capacity of people to influence regime authorities within their nation-state • Measured: • Freedom House index of political rights and civil liberties (from 1972-date) 100pt standardized scale • Dichotomized into autocracies and democracies • Classify power-sharing institutions • Federalism • PR elections • Size largest party in legislature

10. Bureaucratic democracies Bureaucratic autocracies Regime typology Patronage democracies Patronage autocracies

11. 3. Results and analysis

12. Mean income growth by type of regime Note: Mean annual growth of income per capita in purchasing power parity from the chain series index of the Penn World Tables,1984-2007. For the regime typology, see Appendix A.

13. Trends in growth

14. Growth by stable regimes

15. Variables

19. Cases: Haiti v. Dominican Republic

20. Bureaucratic democracies Bureaucratic autocracies Regime typology Patronage democracies Patronage autocracies

21. Economic growth

22. Trends in democracy

23. Trends in governance

25. Challenges • Reciprocal causation • Omitted variable bias • Poor conceptualization and measurement error • Missing data and systematic bias • Mixed design: • Large N panel with OLS regression and panel corrected standard errors • Case studies

26. 4. Conclusions • Bureaucratic Democracy generates growth, while Patronage Autocracies worst performers • Need to reintegrate into a unified theory which understands that democratic accountability needs to be linked with governance capacity, within structural constraints

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