Be Careful Out There – Tools You Can Use

1. Be Careful Out There – Tools You Can Use Flight Risk Assessment Tool AC 91-79: Runway Overrun Prevention Dennis Keith – JetSolutions Dave Hewitt – NetJets International

2. What if you had this flight…….?

3. What if you had this flight…..? • KTEB to KPBI • Runway at KPBI is wet • Thunderstorms are forecast at ETA • ETA at KPBI is at night • Captain has less than 200 hours in type • Repositioning flight Is this a safe flight? If so, how do you know?

4. Let’s talk about… • Safety management • The Flight Risk Assessment Tool • A sample flight using FRAT

5. Safety Management • Safety Management Systems (SMS) • Proactive vs. reactive safety • Flight risk assessment it part of SMS • SMS information • NATA Safety 1st Management System • AC 120-92

6. Safety Management • Hazard – any existing or potential condition that can lead to injury, illness, or death to people; damage to or loss of a system, equipment, or property; or damage to the environment. A hazard is a condition that is a prerequisite to an accident or incident. In English: hazards are bad and can get someone injured or killed or something broken.

7. Safety Management • Risk – The composite of predicted severity and likelihood of the potential effect of a hazard in the worst credible system state. In English: severity X likelihood=RISK

8. Flight Risk Assessment Tool • Not a new concept • FRAT developed by TAOS • InFO 07015 • www.faa.gov/other_visit/aviation_industry/airline_operators/airline_safety/info/ • Looks at three areas • Pilot Qualifications and Experience • Operating Environment • Equipment

9. Flight Risk Assessment Tool Risk Value Severity X Likelihood Flight Value IdentifiedHazards

10. Flight Risk Assessment Tool Total Flight Value

11. Flight Risk Assessment Tool Setting Operational Thresholds • Operator specific • Thresholds based on: • Type of operation • Environment • Aircraft type • Pilot training • Operational experience

12. Flight Risk Assessment Tool Setting Operational Thresholds • Be realistic • If the threshold is never exceeded, it is probably not set correctly • Thresholds should trigger another level of review • Director of Operations • Chief Pilot

13. What if you had this flight…..? • KTEB to KPBI • Runway at KPBI is wet • Thunderstorms are forecast at ETA • ETA at KPBI is at night • Captain has less than 200 hours in type • Repositioning flight

14. FRAT Example • Company has set operational threshold • Total Flight Value of 20 or greater requires review by Chief Pilot • No flights with Flight Value of 25 or greater • Risk must be mitigated until total Flight Value is less than 25

15. FRAT Example • Begin at the beginning

16. FRAT Example • KTEB to KPBI • No specific hazard with departure/destination airports • Runway at KPBI is wet • “Operating Environment” section of FRAT • Risk Value: +3

17. FRAT Example • Thunderstorms are forecast at ETA • “Operating Environment” section of FRAT • Risk Value: +4 • ETA at KKPBI is at night • “Operating Environment” section of FRAT • Risk Value: +5

18. FRAT Example • Captain has less than 200 hours in type • “Pilot Qualifications” section of FRAT • Risk Value: +5 • Repositioning flight • “Operating Environment” section of FRAT • Risk Value: +5

19. FRAT Example • Add up the Flight Values from each section

20. FRAT Example

21. FRAT Example

22. FRAT Example • Add up total Risk Values for final score • Is this flight good to go? • Company threshold: ≥ 20 CP approval required • CP approval required • Another option – mitigate a hazard to reduce Flight Value < 20 • Changing ETA to arrive in daylight reduces Flight Value to 17

23. What we talked about…. • Safety management • The Flight Risk Assessment Tool • A sample flight using FRAT

24. Runway Overrun Prevention Advisory Circular 91-79

25. Issue • Frequency of runway overrun accidents • Part 121 and General Aviation • Turbine powered airplanes • FAA proposed operations specification • Landing distance assessment • Add 15% to calculated landing distance • Subsequently withdrawn • SAFO 06012 published August 2006 • Landing Performance Assessment at Time of Arrival • Voluntary compliance

26. AC Development • Turbine Aircraft Operations Subgroup (TAOS) • Part of General Aviation Joint Steering Committee • Reviewed historical data related to overruns • 10 years of data reviewed

27. AC Development • TAOS Conclusions • Nothing new happening – usual suspects • Non-stabilized approaches • Excess airspeed • Landing beyond touchdown point • Failure to re-assess landing distance enroute • Data did not explicitly support 15% additive • Additional education key to mitigation

28. AC 91-79 • Released November, 2007 • Two year TAOS effort • Centralized source of information

29. AC 91-79 Structure • First Part • Background • Hazards • Mitigation strategies • Can U Stop? • Rules of thumb • Landing distance worksheet

30. Can U Stop?

31. Rules of Thumb

32. Sample Worksheet

33. AC 91-79 Structure • Appendix 1 – Additional Information • Definitions • Braking action • Stabilized approach criteria • Standard operating procedures • Factors the pilot can control • Landing weight • Threshold crossing height • Threshold crossing airspeed • Touchdown point • Techniques

34. AC 91-79 Structure • Appendix 2 – Regulatory Considerations • Part 91, 91K, and 135 requirements • 60% / 80% pre-flight planning rules • Appendix 3 • Certification Considerations • Landing Distance Data • Appendix 4 • Certification Considerations • Landing Distance Data – Wet and Contaminated Runways

35. Runway Overrun Prevention • Future activity • Landing Distance Assessment ARC formed by FAA • Part 121, 135, and 91K operators represented

36. Questions? Be Careful Out There Flight Risk Assessment Tool AC 91-79: Runway Overrun Prevention Dennis Keith – JetSolutions Dave Hewitt – NetJets International

37. SMS Decision Tree