Smart Solutions for Multi-Agent Resource Management in Aerospace Projects

1. Smart Solutions Multi-Agent Technology for Resource Management Smart Projects: Multi-Agent Solution for Aerospace Applications Dr. Petr Skobelev, Founder of Smart Solution / Prof. of Samara Aerospace University & Technical University smartsolutions-123.ru

2. Motivation: Challenges of Modern Economy Growing complexity of decision-making in business management (*) Uncertainty Hard to predict change in demand and supply Dynamics Disruptive events, which totally change the plan Contextuality Decisions made depending on the current situation Multicriteriality Multiple criteria, preferences and constraints Conflicts More and more players with contradicting interests Labour intensity Too many options to be able to predict consequences Individuality Customers want a customized approach Interdependence Making one decision can change the others New approaches are required for decision-making support in project management * IBM Research on Global Management 2014

3. Aerospace Projects: Examples of RSC “Energy” • Design the New Piloted Transport System «Federation» • 10 project stages, 500 sub-projects per stage, each sub-projects contains apr. 1000-4000 task for project teams • Over 2000 specialists involved in project • International Space Stations mission support and modernizations • Project Plan based on ISS Flight Program, Science Research Program, Service and Modernization Program • Over 2000 interdependent sub-projects per year • Over 1000 specialists involved in projects • Cooperation with over the 100 organizations • Design a new and prospective piloted modules for International Space Stations • Over 1 000 elements in Product Tree (Project Management Level) with own sub-project • Over 2000 specialists involved in project • Design and Production Automatic Space Systems (satellites) • Design and Production Spacecraft“Soyuz” and “Progress”

4. Evolution of Management Models in Aerospace Industry

5. Concept of Reforms in Project Management Traditional Approach Networking Approach СД Президент Центр знаний M (Тематические центры) Центр знаний 2 (Тематические центры) Центр знаний 1 (Тематические центры) Руководство корпорации как «мозговой штаб» - центр стратегического развития Вице-президенты Службы Центры Общая шина управления корпорацией Отделения Отделы I have an idea! Сектора Сервисные службы предприятия I can do this work faster! Бизнес-центр N (Проектный офис) Бизнес-центр 2 (Проектный офис) Бизнес-центр 1 (Проектный офис) Бюро Boss always right! I know how to implement the idea We are not able!! Сотрудники Eager to work days and nights Кто хотел бы попробовать? We are not educated enough! What are the reasons for me? We don’t have resources!

6. Reforms in Project Management

7. Problems of Project Management Projects and Products • More than 50 large projects in parallel • All projects are fighting for one single "pool" of resources • Different deadlines, requirements, competencies, types of specialists, budgetary constraints • Projects are R&D and have high uncertainty • The projects need for detailed "horizontal" planning • Monitoring and control of thousands of tasks by project offices Employees and Departments • The departments simultaneously works on a variety of projects • The departments need to keep knowledge base with tasks, results, competencies, etc • The project plan are decomposed to employees • All tasks are interdependent - need for coordination of actions with other teams • The departments need to provide growth of productivity • Projects need to be accomplished within the given timeframes, budgets and the required level of quality • By definition projects are in conflicts – the solution need to find a balance of interests between thematic centers and project offices • Plans of projects must be adaptive because of high dynamics of the events

8. Multi-Level Plans in Project Management 1 Projects/Stages • Program Management: • Portfolio of Projects 2 Project with delaines, budgets and high level tasks • Project Office: • Project Plans Management 1.3 1.1 1.2 Project Plans 2.3 2.2 2.1 Capacity of Teams and Divisions Planning • Teams / Departments • Teams / Departments D1 Teams and Divisions plans D2 E1 Employee Plans E2 Employees personal plan • Employees personal plan Task per each Employee with relations, dates and amounts

9. Solution for Multi-Level Project Management • Input data (transmitted down): • Projects and stages of work • Contract cost, terms • Output data (return to top): • Economics of project plans • Realization statuses of project plans • Plan/Fact/Forecast for project plans • Forecast of risks Program Office • Program Management: • Portfolio of Projects • Input data (transmitted down): • Work on project plans for implementation in the divisions • Limits on labor and finance • Requirements for performers • Output data (return to top): • Facts and reports • Tasks of employees on the project plans • Forecast of risks Project Office • Project Office: • Project Plans Management • Features: • Project program scheduling • Accounting the list of required results to the customers • Accounting the projects and their details • Accounting of the project budget • Plan vs Fact analysis • KPIs of projects, managers and divisions • Analysis of problem situations and risks • Input data (transmitted down): • Individual tasks for the implementation of project plans, assignments • Output data (return to top): • The facts of accomplishing tasks • Progress Reports • Results of work • Forecast of risks • Teams & Divisions • Department Plan Management • Features: • Development of project plans • The estimation of labor intensity of works and required resources • Project team management and schedule of specialist recruitment • Conducting the facts of the performed and recording the results of work • Computation of the economy by projects: plan, fact by norms • Monitoring and monitoring the realization of plans • Dashboards and summary reports on project plans • Automatic calculation of the project schedule is carried out in the mode of the plan, forecast and the recalculation on the events • Analysis of risks and problems Employees • Features: • Planning work units • Detailing the tasks of the project plans to the tasks of the employees • The facts of accomplishing the tasks are introduced. • Planning of all the work of the units to the final employees, taking into account terms and competencies • Automatic calculation of the unit schedule in the mode of the plan and forecast and recounting by events • Employee Plan Management • Features: • Progress and statuses for tasks • Results of work • Risk analysis

10. System-of-System Architecture • Program Management Scheduler: • Portfolio of Projects Integration withERP systems Knowledge Base • Scheduler for Project Office #1: Plan Management Integration with Scheduler for PLM systems Intellectual ESB (The enterprise service bus for the coordination and control of plans) • Scheduler for Department Management #1 • Scheduler for Department • Management #2 • Scheduler for Department Management #N

11. Single Scheduler - System Architecture Tasks Employees Gantt-Chart Projects Dashboards Web-UI Resources Reports Departments Pert-Chart Artifacts Kanban-Board Users and Roles Pivot-Charts Project Plans Integration Intellectual Modules Knowledge Base Real-time Situation Analyze Strategic Planner (Capacity) Talend ESB Predictotors Operative planner (Operations) ETL-Procedures Storage and Processing Data OLTP OLAP Data Access (Entity Framework) AsyncComputing Services Schema and Data Migrations (Entity Framework) Object Security System

12. Multi-Agent Technology TraditionalSystems Multi-agent Systems Large networks of small agents; Parallel Processing; Negotiations and Trade-Offs; Distributed decisions; Knowledge-driven; Self-organization; Evolution; Thrive with Complexity; Managing growth. Hierarchies of large software products; Sequential Processing; Top-down instructions; Centralized decisions; Data-driven; Predictability; Stability; Aim to reduce complexity; Full control.

13. Multi-Agent Demand and Supply Networks Virtual Market Engine S S Demand-Supply Match D S D S MatchContract D S S D D S D Demand Agent SupplyAgent S S S D S D D D Demand and Supply Matching on Virtual Market Engine - is the Core Part of Real-Time Multi-Agent Solutions for Complex Problems

14. Model of decision making • Depending on the value of the current KPI the components of the objective function of agent have different characteristics (may vary in shape for different vector components) with a maximum at the optimum value. The sharper the peak, the greater the sensitivity of the KPI to deviations from the optimum. The broader the base, the less dependence on the function of the sub-optimal values and the schedule is less dependent on the details of the solution in the context of this component. • Varying through the user interface form and function parameters it is possible to increase or decrease the mobility of agents. • In every act of agents interaction (negotiations), the agent determines the value of its objective function and the budget for the current state. The budget is known as the inversion of the objective function (credit) and spent for rescheduling. The closer optimum condition, the higher the score, and simultaneously, the smaller the loan. Because the agent does not require virtual money to improve and its activity in this sense less. The further KPI away from the optimum, the smaller the objective function is, but the higher the loan, which he can use for payment. Therefore, the activity of this agent is higher and it has "energy = virtual money" that allows him to spend more on improving the KPI. Thus, each act of interaction would be an act of sale or purchase of agent’s resources. Interdependence between components of the objective function and the agent KPI values Interdependence between components of the objective function and the agent KPI values

15. Agents and Protocols of Interaction

16. Ontologies for Project Management Base ontology classes Organization Unit Working in Working in Leader Working in Design Project Management Is Responsible Product Contains of Team Manage Sub Product Part Project Is a member of Is an input for Design by Specialist Technologies Require Has Task Требуют Skill Output Produce Result object Artifact

17. Ontology of Projects: Sematic Descriptor of Task Group Task Whole->Part Next Task Previous Task 6 3 Follower Predecessor • Task Classification • Regular Task Name • Task Super Class • Task Subclass • Properties • Time estimations 1 Object1 Object4 Object3 5 2 Output Objects Input Objects Object3 4 Has Employee requirements Employee(Full Name-1) 7 Result 1 • Employee requirements : • Experience in system engineering • Standing more then 3 years Employee(Full Name-2) Result 2 Who make it last time?

18. Using Knowledge Base for Project Management Created Project Plan Classes of Projects, Types of Tasks, Types of Docs, etc

19. System Workflow 1.The leader creates a new hi level draft project plan or new tasks or approves urgent execution of a task created by one of the employees; 2. Parameters of the task and duration of its execution time and statistical data are stored in knowledge base; 3. The agent of the task finds the proper employees using its ontological description and competencies profiles; 4. The agent of task comes to the Developer Workstation and asks him to consider the possibility to execute it; 5. The developer selects one of the tasks form the list and sends a confirmation that he is ready to execute it but also can adjust execution schedule, specify the required time; 6. If the user enters suggestion that seriously differ from the initial schedule, the agent of the task tries to find out the reasons and new employee; 7. Then the process is repeated the same way until schedules will not be assigned to the developer; 8. Based on the results of the job completion, the calculation of employees wages is done according to the agreed rate,; 9. The developer can see, how much he has earned during the day or other period and can select the tasks from the pool of unallocated but recommended project tasks to receive additional fee.

20. Program Management: Portfolio of Projects Purpose Increase the efficiency of decision-making leadership of the Organization's key financial and economic project management Users Top management, managers (project offices managers, projects managers, divisions leaders), economists Features • Support of decision-making on financial and economic problems of projects • Calculation of key performance indicators for managers, projects, divisions • Calculation of financial and economic indicators of projects by events • Automatic identification of problems in terms of financial and economic activities • Monitoring and control of the Organization's projects • Monitoring and control of the implementation of project schedules • Monitoring and monitoring the progress of projects with related organizations • View the register of projects and contracts of the Organization • Viewing of primary documents (acts, contracts, invoices, payments) Exploitation • The system operates in a test mode in the Energia • Key meetings on project management at the management level of the Corporation are conducted through the system • Program Office monitors and controls over 152 projects on this system

21. Project Offices: Project Plans Management Purpose The system is designed to develop and monitor the implementation of project plans with the ability to anticipate in advance possible deadlines for implementation and identify resource conflicts Users Head of Project Offices, Project Managers, Leading Designers, Responsible from Division Features • Development of multi-level schedules • Fixing and tracking changes according to schedule • Developing changes to project plans • Calculation of labor intensity of work based on standards • Calculation of estimates of the cost of work (plan, fact, standard) • Execution of works (input of fact by performers) • Execution control (plan-fact analysis, notification of project events) • Adaptive scheduling planning • Import / export of GHG to Windchill, MS Project Exploitation • The system works in a test mode in one of the project officesEnergia • Total active 10 leading designers (subproject managers) • The system has more than 4000 subprojects and 65 thousand tasks

22. Team, Division and Employee Plans Management Purpose It is intended for informational support of decision making when managing departmental work plans in the integrated information environment of the Corporation. Users Division Managers, Team Leaders, Executors Features • Formation of the department work plan on the basis of the Corporation's work program and technical plans • Dynamic planning and control tasks of employees • Forecasting the timing of work on the tasks of employees • Specialized workstation for performer • Unit Results Database • Support for execution of the work plan • Exchange of data with the information systems of the Corporation Exploitation • Test operation in one department • A total of 11554 tasks, 7500 results

23. Examples of User Interfaces Milestones Current plan VS actual plan Critical Path

24. Plans of Many Projects in One Department

25. Results of Experiments Comparing IBM CPLEXи MAS scheduling for benchmarking on300 Job Shop Scheduling Problem (for 500 tasks). Quality of solution is about 80% vs CPLEX. Time of computation is about 10-20 more in MAS comparing with CPLEX. NOTE: the comparing was in batch mode which is not the case for MAS – which has main benefits in real time mode.

26. Results of Delivery for “Energia”: First Estimates • increase of the employees work efficiency - by 10-15%; • reduction of the efforts on tasks allocation, scheduling, coordination and monitoring for running project - by 3-4 times; • increase of the reusability of the existing resources (documents, components, etc.) - from 50% and more; • reduction of the time of response to unexpected events - by 2-3 times; • increase of the percentage of the enterprise projects completed within the required budget and timeframe - by 15-30%; • increase in employee motivation and growth – significant; • the platform for increasing the number of projects without increasing the number of managers.

27. Thank you! Dr. Petr Skobelev Founder/ Chairman of Directors Board Software Engineering Company “Smart Solutions” Office +7 (846) 279 37 79 Mob. +7 (929) 702 22 00 E-mail: skobelev@smartsolutions-123.ru