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AIACC Regional Study AS07

AIACC Regional Study AS07. Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resources and Extreme Hydrological due to Climate Change. AIACC Regional Study AS07. Part 1: Introduction to AIACC regional study AS07 Part 2: What decision will you influence with the result of your project?

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AIACC Regional Study AS07

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  1. AIACC Regional Study AS07 Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resources and Extreme Hydrological due to Climate Change

  2. AIACC Regional Study AS07 • Part 1: Introduction to AIACC regional study AS07 • Part 2: What decision will you influence with the result of your project? • What are the key analyses that you will undertake to achieve this and what methods will you use? • What will you incorporate into your project from the workshop that will add to the value of your project for the decision makers that you intend to influence? • Part 3: Incorporate into framework

  3. AIACC Regional Study AS07 Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resources and Extreme Hydrological due to Climate Change Area of study: Mekong River Basin

  4. AIACC Regional Study AS07 Climate Change Hydrological effects • Temperatures • Precipitation • Windspeed/direction • River flows, runoff • Frequency/magnitude of floods • frequency/magnitude of droughts Possible effects on the study area • altered water temperatures • altered water quality, modified nutrient content, increased salinity • altered water levels, water table • altered water availability, water storage capacity • flood patterns : reduced/increased flooding, altered flood timing • modified habitats, obstruction of migration routes

  5. AIACC Regional Study AS07 Potential Impact Adaptation Options Adaptability Vulnerability* Sector Agriculture • reduced productivity • management and policy changes Low Highly Vulnerable • rural / urban water supply constraints • saltwater intrusion • eutrophication • alternative water supplies • water allocation and pricing • reduce nutrient flows Water resources Low Highly Vulnerable

  6. AIACC Regional Study AS07 Potential Impact Adaptation Options Adaptability Vulnerability* Sector Aquatic ecosystems • river and inland wetland ecosystem changes • wetland and biodiversity loss • physical interventions • increased protected areas and wildlife refuge Low Highly Vulnerable Human settlements • increased impacts of flood, storm surge, sea level rise • relief aids • zoning and disaster planning • warning system Low Highly Vulnerable

  7. AIACC Regional Study AS07 Potential Impact Adaptation Options Adaptability Vulnerability* Sector Human Health • increased spread of vector-borne diseases • quarantine, eradication, control Medium to Low Moderately Vulnerable * A Report of Working Group II of the IPCC.

  8. AIACC Regional Study AS07 • What decision will you influence with the result of your project? • Extending the length of policy planning to cope with the climate change • Broaden the aspect of the policy development • Various possibilities and frame of thought in policy development process • Stakeholders involvement in the policy making process • Multi-level and multi sector awareness on the impact from climate change • Water Governance concept

  9. AIACC Regional Study AS07 • What are the key analyses that you will undertake to achieve this and what methods will you use? • Matching the timescale of the climate change study onto the policy planning process • Using of various socio-economic scenarios from the study of the impact from climate change into the adaptation planning activities • Engage all possible stakeholders into the policy development process • Participatory method for vulnerability assessment • Using the concept of the “Policy community” • Vulnerability mapping as well as other scientific tools/analytical tools and methods • Resource management under climatic and hydrological variability

  10. AIACC Regional Study AS07 • What will you incorporate into your project from the workshop that will add to the value of your project for the decision makers that you intend to influence? • Various tools and methods • Scenario generating tools • Water management software • GIS based vulnerability map • Adaptation method/measurement • Etc. • Frame of thought • Constructive way of building up socio-economic scenarios • Development of the framework for the future study in V&A • Necessity of the stakeholders involvement in the policy making process – stakeholder analysis and “Policy Community” • Linking the scientific finding to the policy making

  11. AIACC Regional Study AS07 • Incorporate into framework

  12. AIACC Regional Study AS07 Climate Modeling Technique Climate scenarios Precipitation Hydrology Modeling Technique Land use/cover scenarios Runoff profiles Runoff profiles Runoff profiles

  13. AIACC Regional Study AS07 Water profile maps GIS tools Remote sensing tools Vulnerability potential maps • Policy maker & stakeholders engagement • Stakeholders analysis • Build awareness of impact from CC • Capacity building • Vulnerability map • Hot spot/Hot issues selection • Possible vulnerable areas: • Flood in the lower Mekong basin • Impact on the rain fed agriculture • Impact on the wetland – human livelihood/biodiversity • Impact on water utilization • Possible outbreak of certain decease • Etc.

  14. AIACC Regional Study AS07 Risk analysis: sample case of flood – GIS tools, Scenario generator tools, Stakeholders analysis, Participatory method - Stakeholders participation, etc. Agriculture 2020 2040 2060 Demographic Infrastructure Etc. Different scenarios at different time Overlay on Flood Risk Map/Inundation map

  15. AIACC Regional Study AS07 • Historical data analysis • Participatory method Coping range/ Adaptive capacity assessment Vulnerability Assessment • Participatory method • Multi-criteria analysis Vulnerability Maps GIS tools

  16. AIACC Regional Study AS07 Adaptation Plan Development Participatory method “Policy Community” • Long term policy • Multi-criteria analysis • Cost-benefit analysis • Etc. Adaptation Options

  17. AIACC Regional Study AS07 • Expected Products and Outputs (preliminary plan): • 14-km resolution monthly climate scenario (e.g., temperature, barometric pressure, rainfall) for the Mekong River Basin; • 2. 1-km resolution monthly runoff, routed water discharge, water level and soil moisture for the Mekong Basin under different climate and land cover scenarios; • 3. Hydrological simulation tool to enhance local capacity to develop local adaptation strategies and policies; • 4. Regional maps of vulnerabilities of different water related aspects to climate and land cover changes;

  18. AIACC Regional Study AS07 Expected Products and Outputs (preliminary plan): 5. Adaptation strategies and options for some communities and economic sectors will be affected by global climate change in Mekong River Basin; 6. Generalized adaptation strategies and options for countries in the Mekong River Basin to cope with Changing Water Resource and Extreme Hydrological Events due to Climate Change

  19. Discussion Session Thank You

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