6GEO3 Unit 3 Contested Planet Energy Security

1. 6GEO3 Unit 3 Contested Planet Energy Security

2. What is this topic about? • Energy is fundamental to our lives, and we often take it for granted • This topic explores our energy supply, and asks challenging questions about it • Can we continue to rely on fossil fuels, or do we need a radical switch in energy sources? • Energy is very closely linked to climate change as fossil fuels (our main energy source) are the main source of greenhouse gas emissions.

3. CONTENTS • Energy supply, demand and security • The impacts of energy insecurity • Energy security and the future Click on the information icon to jump to that section. Click on the home button to return to this contents page

4. 1. Energy supply, demand and security

5. Life cycle analysis • Comparing the environmental impact of different energy sources is a challenge • Life cycle greenhouse emissions is one approach • Even this does not account for NIMBY issues (e.g. windfarms), or the loss of ecosystems and biodiversity linked to extraction of fossil fuels • Some sources, such as nuclear and biomass are highly controversial and there is intense debate over their ‘green’ credentials. Life cycle analysis accounts for C02 emissions at all stages of the energy supply chain, not simply during use 

6. Access to energy • Direct access to fossil fuel reserves is a coincidence of geological history and international boundaries. • Some countries find themselves with more fossil fuel sources than their needs • Others have none • Reserves run down over time, as is the gas with the UK’s once abundant North Sea oil and gas • Remaining oil and gas will increasingly concentrate in the Middle East over the next 30 years. Top 15 countries by oil, gas and coal reserves in 2008

7. Access to renewables UK renewable potential • Most renewable energy is constrained by physical geography, and especially climate • This means its availability is place specific • The UK has significant renewable potential, especially wind, although it is a small country with limited land area; most HEP sites are already used. • Many renewables are intermittent energy sources, so energy must be stored (very costly and technically difficult) or backed up by another source

8. Access to energy • Which energy sources are used is not simply a matter of which fossil fuels or renewable forms are available in a country • Other factors influence choice of energy sources • Cost is critical, as people are sensitive to energy sources • Nuclear power station construction ground to a standstill after the 1986 Chernobyl accident.

9. Energy poverty • Lack of access to energy resources is common in the developing world • Reliance of fuel wood, farm waste and dung is high and fossil fuel consumption low • Up to 40% of the world’s population rely on these sources as their primary cooking and heating fuel • Close to 2 billion people have no access to electricity • Access to cheap, reliable energy is strongly related to development as so much of ‘modern’ life and industry depends on it.

10. Demand • Global demand for energy has risen dramatically, especially since the 1960s • Demand doubled between 1960 and 1980 • Growth in demand has been slower since 1980, but is projected to rise by up to 60% between 2002 and 2030 and continue upward. • The BRIC countries, as well as other large developing nations (Mexico, Indonesia) have contributed to much to recent increases in demand and are likely to do so in the future. • Further industrialisation inevitably brings demands for cars and consumer goods, all of which need power.

11. Security • Energy security depends on a number of factors (see table) • Countries with a diverse energy ‘mix’ are less at risk than those relying on 1 or 2 sources • Renewable potential could be used to offset declining fossil fuel reserves or supply interruptions • Reliance on long distance international trade in fossil fuels may be risky • Demand and dependency are important too, as it is difficult to replace a large amount of oil with another energy source for instance

12. 2. The impacts of energy insecurity • Fossil fuel supply regions are poorly matched with areas of largest demand • This is especially true for oil and gas • Energy must flow along internationalpathways from producer to consumer • These are either pipelines (oil and gas), bulk carriers (coal, uranium), LNG tankers (gas) or oil tankers. Electricity is also exported / imported. • Pathways could be disrupted, increasing energy insecurity.

13. Risks of disruption • Gas pipeline disruption has already occurred, as disputes between Russia and Ukraine disrupted European gas supplies in 2006 and 2009 • Russia holds 25% of world gas reserves, the Middle East 40% (and 56% of oil) • Disruption to narrow ocean choke points (see map) could seriously affect the flow of oil • Countries close to some choke points are unstable (Iran, Somalia, Yemen)

14. Risks of disruption • There are real risks if oil and gas supplies are disrupted. • Any potential disruption is headline news • So dependent are we on cheap, uninterrupted energy supplies that disruption could lead to: • Soaring energy costs and rising energy poverty • Pressure on politicians to act; possibly rationing energy • Civil disruption • Rising costs for industry, job losses and recession • Unsound decisions (economically and environmentally) to rapidly develop alternative sources • Diplomatic conflict

15. Supply: new sources • As oil prices remain high, and fears of ‘peak oil and gas’ increase the search is on for new sources:

16. Viable alternatives? • The chart below shows the estimates oil price required for each energy resource to be competitive with oil and gas without any form of State support or subsidy Source: the FT 2009

17. Players • The diagram below summarises the role of some key players in the energy supply

18. Big oil: TNCs and OPEC • Supermajor and other oil and gas TNCs control most oil and gas extraction, refining and distribution. • State owned oil companies own / control access to 95% of world oil and gas reserves • OPEC is effectively a price control cartel, with considerable power.

19. 3. Energy security and the future • There are several key uncertainties relating to energy futures: • Future demand is uncertain – it partly depends on future population and economic growth • The lifespan of fossil fuel reserves, especially oil, is unknown • The extent to which we exploit unconventional oil (see image) • The extent and timing of switching from fossil fuel to renewables is uncertain. • Peak oil and gas are important; after peak production prices can only rise.

20. The nuclear option? • Opinion is divided over whether nuclear power is the answer • It provides about 15% of the world’s electricity, but only 2% of all energy needs • There are over 400 reactors in 30 countries, but few currently being built

21. Biofuels? • Biofuels have the advantage of being flexible liquids • As such they can replace diesel (biodiesel) and petrol (bio-ethanol) • However, they require food crops as feedstocks (sugar cane, maize etc) • This means land that could be used for food. • In 2007-08 explosive growth of biofuel crop area was blamed for pushing up global food prices • Biofuels are not carbon neutral, because of the energy used in farming, transport and refining. Future biofuels might not use food crops: 1st generation – food crops 2nd generation – crop wastes 3rd generation – algae

22. Geopolitics • There are a number of sources of tension, both present and future, related to energy security and the threat of insecurity:

23. Future challenges • What are our energy challenges in 2010? There are some that are obvious: • Reduce dependency on fossil fuels to increase energy security • Increase renewable energy use as fossil fuels become more expensive / peak • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions • Increase access to energy in developing nations