BUSINESS B8

1. BUSINESS B8 Emerging Trends and Technologies

2. Learning Outcomes • Identify the trends that will have the greatest impact on future business • Identify the technologies that will have the greatest impact on future business • Explain why understanding trends and new technologies can help an organization prepare for the future

3. Introduction • Obtaining a broad view of emerging trends and new technologies as they relate to business can help an organization anticipate and prepare for the future • Organizations that can most effectively grasp the deep currents of technological evolution can use their knowledge to protect themselves against sudden and fatal technological obsolescence

4. Trends • Trend analysis – the examination of a trend to identify its nature, causes, speed of development, and potential impacts • Trend monitoring – trends viewed as particularly important in a specific community, industry, or sector are carefully monitored, watched, and reported to key decision makers • Trend projection – when numerical data is available a trend can be plotted on graph paper to display changes through time and into the future • Computer simulation – complex systems can be modeled by means of mathematical equations and different scenarios can be run against the model to determine “what if” analysis • Historical analysis – the study of historical events in order to anticipate the outcome of current developments

5. Top reasons organizations should study trends

6. Trends Shaping Our Future • World’s population will double in the next 40 years • Population in developed countries is living longer • Growth in information industries creates a knowledge-dependent global society • The global economy is becoming more integrated • The economy and society are dominated by technology • Pace of technological innovation is increasing • Time is becoming one of the most precious commodities

7. The world’s population will double over the next 40 years Potential business impact: • Global agriculture will be required to supply as much food as has been produced during all of human history to meet needs over the next 40 years • Developed nations will find that retirees will have to remain on the job to remain competitive • Developed nations will begin to increase immigration limits

8. Population in developed countries is living longer Potential business impact: • Global demand for elderly products and services will grow quickly in the coming decades • The cost of health care is destined to skyrocket • Pharmaceutical companies will be pushed for advances in geriatric medicine

9. The growth in information industries is creating a knowledge-dependent global society • 83% of American management personnel will be knowledge workers by 2005 • A typical large organization in 2010 will have fewer than half the management levels of its counterpart in 1990, and about 1/3 the number of managers Potential business impact: • Top managers must be computer-literate to retain their jobs and achieve success • Knowledge workers are generally higher paid and their proliferation is increasing overall prosperity • Entry-level and unskilled positions are requiring a growing level of education • Information now flows from front-office workers to higher management for analysis • Downsizing, restructuring, reorganization, outsourcing, and layoffs will continue

10. The global economy is becoming more integrated • International outsourcing is on the rise • The European Union has relaxed its borders and capital controls • Internet users numbered about 500 million worldwide in 2003, Internet users are growing by 6% monthly Potential business impact: • Demand for personnel in distant countries will increase the need for foreign language training and employee incentives suited to other cultures • E-business and the Internet will reduce the cost of doing business • The Internet will allow small companies to compete with worldwide giants with relatively little investment

11. The economy and society are dominated by technology • Computers are becoming a part of our environment • By 2007, artificial intelligence and expert systems will help most companies and government agencies assimilate data and solve problems beyond the range of today’s computers • Personal robots will appear in the home by 2010 Potential business impact: • New technologies provide dozens of new opportunities to create businesses and jobs • Automation will continue to decrease the cost of products and services, making it possible to reduce prices while improving profits • Demand for scientists, engineers, and technicians will continue to grow

12. Pace of technological innovation is increasing • Medical knowledge is doubling every eight years • 50% of what students learn in their freshman year of college is obsolete, revised, or taken for granted by their senior year • All of today’s technical knowledge will represent only 1 percent of the knowledge that will be available in 2050 Potential business impact: • Shortened time-to-market for products and services • Tighter competition based on new technologies

13. Time is becoming one of the world’s most precious commodities • U.S. workers spend 10% more time on the job than they did a decade ago • European executives and nonunionized workers face the same trend • This high-pressured environment is increasing the need for any product or service that saves time or simplifies life Potential business impact: • Companies must take an active role in helping their employees balance their work and lives • Stress-related problems affecting employee morale and wellness will continue to grow • Use of the Internet will continue to grow as the time to perform activities, such as shopping at a mall, evaporates

14. The following technologies have the potential to change our future • Digital ink • Digital paper • Radio frequency identification (RFID) • Teleliving • Alternative energy sources • Autonomic computing

15. Digital Ink (or Electronic Ink) refers to technology that digitally represents handwriting in its natural form • Digital ink can be used in many applications: • Point-of-sale signs • Next generation displays in mobile devices and PDAs • Thin, portable electronic books and newspapers • RadioPaper – dynamic high-resolution electronic display that combines a paperlike reading experience with the ability to access information anytime, anywhere

16. Digital Paper (or Electronic Paper) any paper that is optimized for any type of digital printing • The major difference between paper produced from a tree and paper produced in a laboratory is that information on a digital paper sheet can be altered thousands of times and not degrade over time Potential business impact: • Paperlike displays will replace newspapers, magazines, and books • Reusable paper is an environmentally sound idea

17. Digital Paper

18. Digital ink and digital paper past, present, and future

19. Radio frequency identification (RFID) • RFID – uses active or passive tags in the form of chips or smart labels that can store unique identifiers and relay this information to electronic readers • RFID systems are automated, reducing the need for manual scanning, such as required with a bar code Potential business impact: • Reduces the labor required to monitor goods movement and inventory flow through a supply chain • Allows manufacturers and retailers to complement existing systems while gathering more information • Provides complete supply chain visibility without the prohibitive labor costs and error rates associated with a manual system • RFID helps enforce security by conducting automatic inventory counts

20. Comparison of bar code labeling to RFID

21. Closing Case One:Mail with PostalOne • United States Postal Service’s (USPS) productivity has grown by only 11 percent over the past three decades • USPS is pursuing several e-business projects to help increase growth including: • NetPost Mailing Online • Post Electronic Courier Service • NetPost.Certified • EBillPay • Do you think the USPS’s steps are far-reaching enough to ensure its relevance in e-business? • What other strategic alliances, akin to its partnership with CheckFree, can the Postal Service develop to stay competitive? • Why would the USPS compete in a market that private companies already serve well?

22. Teleliving • Teleliving – refers to using information devices and the Internet to conduct all aspects of life seamlessly • Includes shopping, working, learning, playing, healing, and even praying • Each year, four billion chips are embedded in everything from coffee makers to Cadillacs Potential business impact • In the future, people will move through a constant stream of information summoned at the touch of a finger • Virtual assistant (VA) – a small program stored on a PC or portable device that monitors e-mails, faxes, messages, and phone calls. VAs will mimic real assistants helping individuals solve problems • Robotic salespeople will take on human appearances and perform all tasks associated with a sales job

23. Alternative Energy Sources • Wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and other alternative energy sources will account for 30 percent of all energy use • By 2010 nuclear plants will supply 16% of Russia and eastern Europe’s energy Potential business impact: • China, India, South America, and Russia are modernizing their economies, which increases their needs for energy • Cost of alternative energy sources is decreasing • Deregulation of the energy industry is expected to increase innovation and foster a wide variety of new energy sources • Oil will remain the world’s most important energy source

24. Autonomic Computing • Autonomic computing – a self-managing computing model named after, and patterned on, the human body’s autonomic nervous system Potential business impact: • Autonomic computing will be used in complex IT infrastructures for security, storage, network management, and redundancy/failover • Computers will monitor components and fine-tune workflows • Autonomic computers will be able to “self-heal” • Autonomic computers will be able to “self-protect”

25. Autonomic Computing