1 / 0

Household Debt-to-Asset Ratio

Household Debt-to-Asset Ratio. 2011 Q2 HH Assets: $72.3 Trillion. 18%. $4.7 Trillion Decline in Assets Necessary to reach Pre-Tech Bubble Ratio of 15%. 15%. Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. Impact on Household Asset Values.

virote
Download Presentation

Household Debt-to-Asset Ratio

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Household Debt-to-Asset Ratio 2011 Q2 HH Assets: $72.3 Trillion 18% $4.7 Trillion Decline in Assets Necessary to reach Pre-Tech Bubble Ratio of 15% 15% Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
  2. Impact on Household Asset Values
  3. Ways to Reduce Household Assets Sell vacation homes, boats and RVs Sell cars and used stuff Sell investments (stocks, bonds) Withdraw money from retirement accounts Sell primary residence Foreclosure sale Bankruptcy sale Home prices & financial asset values fall Due to reduced return expectations
  4. Household Mortgage Debt to GDP Ratio 2011 Q2 GDP: $14.99 Trillion 66% $3.3 Trillion decline in mortgage debt required to reach Pre-Tech Bubble ratio of 44% 22% Drop 44% Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
  5. Source: Lender Processing Services
  6. Source: Lender Processing Services
  7. The Future!
  8. SOMETHING UP?
  9. SOMETHING DOWN?

  10. Cranes

  11. Cement

  12. Shipping

  13. Semiconductors

  14. ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute
  15. ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute
  16. WHAT’S NOT DOWN? Farmland Values to Rent Ratio Ratio Calculations based on Iowa State University and University of Nebraska data Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha Branch
  17. Commodity Prices 24 X Income = 4.17 % 15 X Income = 6.67 % Implies 39 % Value Drop
  18. 2011Estimated Source: Real Estate Center Mays Business School Texas A&M University
  19. Number of Acres SoldTexas Statewide Thousands of Acres
  20. What next?
  21. TRUST ME! I’M A DOCTOR QE III?
  22. US Personal Income in Billions of Dollars
  23. Consumer Confidence Index Source: Conference Board
  24. Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
  25. US Unemployment Rate
  26. PERCENT CHANGE IN GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  27. US Savings Rate (New and Really Really Improved)Savings as a Percent of Disposable Income

  28. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

    Aftermath! Standard economic models calibrated to statistically “normal” growth may be of little use. Source: Carmen M. Reinhart (U of Maryland) and Kenneth S. Rogoff (Harvard U) This Time Is Different : Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
  29. ARM RESET SCHEDULE
  30. US and Texas Population 1910-2010 US grew 235% while Texas grew 545% US (left scale) Texas (right scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  31. Fastest Growing States, 2000-2010 55% Texas growth Natural, 45% Immigration 21% Growth not that uncommon for Texas 15.7% of numerical change in U.S. Source: 2010 U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  32. > 34 states > 32 states Source: 2010 U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  33. NAHB HOUSING STARTS FORECAST Number of Units Source: National Association of Home Builders
  34. NAHB SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES FORECAST Number of Units Source: National Association of Home Builders
  35. Mixed Emotions
More Related