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Reflections on the need for seeing beyond risk assessments and decision analysis tools in decision-making situations inv

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Reflections on the need for seeing beyond risk assessments and decision analysis tools in decision-making situations inv

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    1. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond risk assessments and decision analysis tools in decision-making situations involving high risks Terje Aven University of Stavanger, Norway

    2. What is Risk?

    3. What is Risk?

    5. Risk

    9. ------ P =1 x 10-4

    10. Expected utility theory

    15. Cost-benefit analysis

    16.

    17. Law of large numbers The average converges to the expected value (X1 + X2 + … + Xn)/n

    19. Expected utility theory E[u(X)]

    20. Decision problem

    21. Decision problem

    22. Probability

    23. Knowledge-based probability P(A|K) =0.1 The assessor compares his/her uncertainty (degree og belief) about the occurrence of the event A with drawing a specific ball from an urn that contains 10 balls (Lindley, 2000).

    24. The probability of an event is the price at which the person assigning the probability is neutral between buying and selling a ticket that is worth one unit of payment if the event occurs, and worthless if not

    25. Knowledge-based probability P(A|K) =0.1 The assessor compares his/her uncertainty (degree og belief) about the occurrence of the event A with drawing a specific ball from an urn that contains 10 balls (Lindley, 2000).

    26. The need for seeing beyond P

    27. John offers you a game: throwing a die ”1,2,3,4,5”: 6 ”6”: -24

    28. Risk Expected value 24 x 1/6 + 6 x 5/6 = 1 (C,P): 6 5/6 -24 1/6 Is based on an important assumption – the die is fair

    29. While probabilities can always be assigned, the origin and amount of information supporting the assignments are not reflected by the numbers produced

    30. Approaches reflecting the need for seeing beyond P Interval probabilities 0.1 = P(A) = 0.5

    31. An adjusted approach

    32. Uncertainty factors How important are they? - sensitivity - uncertainties

    33. Uncertainty factor importance

    35. Decision problem

    38. Analysis informs, nothing more Always needs to see beyond the analyses Improvements of the analyses

    39. Progress, development, industry friendly, protectionProgress, development, industry friendly, protection

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