Retail Change 1971-2000: A Time Sequence

1. Retail Change 1971-2000: A Time Sequence Miles Davis, CASA 24th October 2007 NATIONAL RETAIL PLANNING FORUM

2. The question • What statistics are available for town centre retail activity in England & Wales since 1971? • What can we infer from them about the changing spatial pattern of retail activity?

3. Why the interest? • 1 in 9 UK businesses are retailers • 1 in 9 of total workforce is employed in retail (this is rising) • 6% of Gross Domestic Product • More than a third of consumer spending goes through shops - most of us have daily contact • Public and policymakers concerned about impact of retail change, especially interaction with land use planning • But relatively little data to inform decisions Source: British Retail Consortium

4. Retail change since 1971: a quick tour • after Schiller 1986, 2001; Lowe 2005

5. A brief history of retail statistics: changing reasons for collection & use • 1930s interest from trade bodies in UK – chambers of commerce; official censuses in US, Ireland, Canada etc • Post-war government interested for economic and employment planning purposes, so legislated for a Census of Distribution:

6. The Dark Age of Retail Statistics • Complaints about slow release of Census results; vicious circle where businesses saw little value and were slow to respond • Inflation and local government changes rendered data obsolete • 1976 Business Inquiry used VAT data to give quick national stats • 1981 Shops Inquiry was meant to give local data – cancelled before wider curtailment of government statistics: • “we’re all too adult to need such things” • Did anticipated private sector replacements materialise? • No legal force, so hard to collect • Partial coverage or ad-hoc local surveys • At mercy of external factors, e.g. take over of URPI by MapInfo

7. CASA Town Centre Statistics project • By mid-1990’s, parliamentary concern over lack of data to measure health of town centres • No new census – how to use data already being collected by government • Predecessors of DCLG commissioned CASA • First problem is agreeing definition of town centres: • using ONS Annual Business Enquiry and VOA floorspace databases at address level • created surfaces for economy, property and diversity • combined to give Index of Town Centre Activity • Use a threshold level of town centre activity to define boundaries Source: www.geofutures.com

8. CASA Town Centre Statistics project • Pilot for 12 towns, then Greater London - found to be remarkably robust • Floorspace and employment stats produced – turnover data in pilot proved problematic • NB not just retail but several town centre activities for over 1000 locations, although 46 specific retail cores • Slow process – data released for England & Wales 2000 and 2002 by 2005, but plans to produce annually from 1998 and turnover data still not fully realised

9. Two slices of bread… • Finally have comprehensive retail statistics at local level for England & Wales, but comparison of 1971 Census and Town Centre Statistics not straightforward • Logistical issues: obtaining and digitising the 1971 Census • Different datasets, collected for different purposes • Different places: local authority areas v computed • Different areal definitions of matching places: poorly defined for 1971 • Different statistical definitions

10. Comparing 1971 Census data with Town Centre Statistics • Work on Greater London (Thurstain-Goodwin & Gong 2005; CASA Working Paper 91): • centres and LA areas had not changed much - matched 100 out of 104 centres • Assumptions in reclassifying business categories, estimating disclosive values, converting floorspace • National comparisons using the same process – matching much fuzzier (e.g. polycentric centres); picture complex

11. …filling the sandwich • Turnover data – the most robust economic measure? • Available for 1971, but not for modern centres, and certainly not in between • Employment data – in both 1971 Census and Town Centre Statistics • local data available for late 1980s and 1990s, but not broken down by industry, and vice versa • Floorspace – some national data available from property industry • e.g. Hillier Parker retail property database

12. Hillier Parker Shopping Centre Master Lists • Now part of global firm CBRE; database sold off to another supplier and not freely available • Shopping centre location, size and type published in paper form for 1978, 1982, 1986, 1992, 1994 & 2000; some update supplements • Also 1990 version through John Lewis, showing opening dates • Definitions change over time, vague: • Developments over 50000sq ft with at least 3 retail units • Retail parks included until 1992, when one-off separate list published • New forms by 2000: hybrid retail parks, speciality centres, outlet parks • Apparent inconsistencies – opening dates, disappearances; what of floorspace lost to the new developments, demolition?

13. Constructing a basic time series • Start with 1971 total floorspace from Census of Distribution • Post-1971 developments from Hillier Parker • Compare total of 1971 + development up to 2000 with 2000 data from Town Centre Statistics • Town Centres Stats data is adjusted A1 floorspace, itself an estimate • 420 matching centres – some new since 1971 (e.g. Brent Cross, Milton Keynes, Metro Centre)

14. Town centre retail floorspace in 1978 compared with 1971

15. Town centre retail floorspace in 1978 compared with 1971

16. Town centre retail floorspace in 1982 compared with 1978

17. Town centre retail floorspace in 1982 compared with 1978

18. Town centre retail floorspace in 1986 compared with 1982

19. Town centre retail floorspace in 1986 compared with 1982

20. Town centre retail floorspace in 1990 compared with 1986

21. Town centre retail floorspace in 1990 compared with 1986

22. Town centre retail floorspace in 1992 compared with 1990

23. Town centre retail floorspace in 1992 compared with 1990

24. Town centre retail floorspace in 1994 compared with 1992

25. Town centre retail floorspace in 1994 compared with 1992

26. Town centre retail floorspace in 2000 compared with 1994

27. Town centre retail floorspace in 2000 compared with 1994

28. 2000 retail floorspace from Town Centre Statistics compared with Census of Distribution/Hillier Parker

29. 2000 retail floorspace from Town Centre Statistics compared with Census of Distribution/Hillier Parker

30. Trajectories for individual towns

31. Discussion • Separating general trends from specifics (e.g. large centre growth) and exceptions • Which are real differences - extra floorspace not captured in Hillier Parker data (e.g Victoria), or floorspace lost during redevelopment or from closures? • Differences due to different places being considered – not just the difference between 1971 towns (often a whole LA area) and defined 2000 centres, but also Hiller Parker definitions of towns e.g. • York: centre constrained, but out-of-town developments captured by HP • Stockport: edge of centre retail park included in Town Centre Statistics • Also temporal fuzziness – what exactly does ‘2000’ mean? • Southampton: new West Quay included in HP, but not Town Centre Stats • Retail parks and supermarkets – how big are these elephants in the room?

32. Conclusion and next steps • This is a crude first analysis – iterative process • Fuzziness in spatial, temporal and statistical definitions • Need to refine to enable real trends to be separated from these effects • Areas to explore: • Visualisation • GWR and other spatial statistical methods • Other possible data sources, specific towns • Analogies with Historical GIS work

33. Retail Change 1971-2000: A Time Sequence • Thanks & acknowledgements: • NRPF, members of the board & Research Group • David Thorpe Fund • Mike Batty, Mark Thurstain-Goodwin, David Thorpe, Yi Gong m.davis@ucl.ac.uk NATIONAL RETAIL PLANNING FORUM