A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida

1. A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist – Associate Professor Engineering and Atmospheric Sciences The University of Georgia stooks@engr.uga.edu 706-583-0156

2. Drought in the Southeast

3. Drought in the Southeast • Is a normal component of the climate system

4. Drought in the Southeast • Is a normal component of the climate system • Has occurred in the past and will in the future

5. Drought in the Southeast • Is a normal component of the climate system • Has occurred in the past and will in the future • No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity

6. Drought in the Southeast • Is a normal component of the climate system • Has occurred in the past and will in the future • No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity • At least from a climatic view

7. Drought in the Southeast • Is a normal component of the climate system • Has occurred in the past and will in the future • No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity • Societal Changes change our vulnerability to drought – both increasing and decreasing our vulnerability

8. Societal Changes in the Southeast

9. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II

10. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980

11. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980 • 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1,000,000

12. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980 • 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million • 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million

13. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980 • 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million • 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million • 2008 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million

14. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980 • 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million • 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million • 2009 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million • 2009 – State of Georgia over 9 million

15. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980 • Growth has be unevenly distributed

16. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980 • Growth has be unevenly distributed • Along the coast • Northern Piedmont – top of the water shed

17. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes

18. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes • Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed flow patterns

19. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes • Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed flow patterns • Conversion of row crop fields to forest (started in 1920s)

20. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes • Agricultural Changes

21. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes • Agricultural Changes • Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees

22. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes • Agricultural Changes • Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees • Increase in irrigation

23. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes • Agricultural Changes • Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees • Increase in irrigation • Increase in urban agriculture – the “green” industry

24. Climate Trends Across the Southeast

25. Climate Trends Across the Southeast • Since 1900 – No trend in yearly precipitation • Since 1900 – No trend to slight cooling in yearly average temperatures

26. The Drivers Location, Location, Location El Niño and La Niña

27. Coupled Air-Sea Interactions The El Nino/La Nina cycle is the predominant mode of year to year climate variability. “The CPC seasonal forecasts lack useful skill in the absence of a strong El Niño/La Niña event” - Bob Livezey

28. Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle • Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean • Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise

29. Winter Jet Stream Patterns During El Niño and La Niña El Niño La Niña

30. El Niño Effects on Precipitation

31. La Niña Effects on Precipitation

32. Alabama Droughts

33. Georgia Droughts

35. Annual North Central Georgia

36. Annual West Central Georgia

37. Annual Alabama Piedmont Plateau

38. Annual Southwest Georgia

39. Annual Coastal Plain Alabama

40. Annual Northwest Florida

41. The Seasonal Distribution is IMPORTANT

42. Typical Recharge in North Georgia - Courtesy SERFC

43. Response of Hydrologic SystemsApalachicola River at Chattahoochee, Florida

44. ENSO and Flow RatesApalachicola River at Chattahoochee, Florida

45. Rainfall By Seasons

46. Winter North Central Georgia

47. Spring North Central Georgia

48. Summer North Central Georgia

49. Fall North Central Georgia

50. Winter West Central Georgia