How To Avoid Abrupt Climate Change

1. How To Avoid Abrupt Climate Change Stephen Halsey - 20th August 2019 - London CodeNode (Skills Matter)

2. Point Of This Talk Look at abrupt climate change and a couple of ways of helping us to avoid it - by providing information that is easy to make sense of, and a way of helping people help other people they know emotionally come to terms with and act on it. Caveat: Still trying to work out whether it really will be very “abrupt”! (include apology re original talk description)

3. Quick Survey Before Starting... Who here:- • Lives in a world where they feels they are fighting for their own survival (not the planets!) in the next decade or two? (I do) • Feels they know a reasonable amount about climate change • Thinks the climate could change in a way that could endanger you or your family in the next:- • 5 years • 10 years • 20 years • 50 years • 100 years • Knows roughly what % of Arctic ice has gone in the last 30 years

4. Tonight’s Talk • About Me • What is Abrupt Climate Change? • What info is available about it + timescales? • What is current response to this info? • What to do? • Improve information • Help people you know emotionally absorb and act on that information • Questions + drinks at bar. (Video + Slides + References e.g. (12) available at http://abruptclimatechange.earth ) - Questions - come back to at end.

5. (Section 1) About Me • Software Engineer • Father of two young children • 10 years ago - 4 books on climate change (1) + internet research • Started work in spare time • Multiple climate projects • Not much achieved, but learnt a lot on way • Now - two new approaches that could be useful

6. (Section 2) What Is Abrupt Climate Change?

7. Definitions Of Abrupt Climate Change Wikipedia - “sudden climate change that is detectable over the time-scale of a human lifetime, possibly as the result of feedback loops within the climate system.” Earth Institute At Columbia University (2):- • “In terms of physics, it is a transition of the climate system into a different mode on a time scale that is faster than the responsible forcing.” • “In terms of impacts, "an abrupt change is one that takes place so rapidly and unexpectedly that human or natural systems have difficulty adapting to it".

8. Key Aspects • Feedback loops • Unexpected • So fast that could cause difficulty adapting

9. Feedback Loops Without feedback loops: warming + effects gradual and give us time to react/adapt With feedback loops: warming + effects could switch significantly in short time span, leaving us with not enough time to react/adapt.

10. Feedback Loop Example - Arctic Albedo • Arctic sea at North Pole has big cap of ice on it. • Warming has decreased area of ice cap in summer from 7m to 4.5m sq km in last 40 years (3 - NASA) • 2.5m sq km new dark blue sea exposed to sun • Ice reflects 50 - 70% sun’s energy, ocean reflects only 6% (4 - NSIDC) • More energy absorbed than previously • Increased warming This is a “vicious circle” which can quickly accelerate its own speed once it gets going.

11. Lots Of Climate Feedback Loops • Methane release in Siberia and NSAS as frost/ice melts • Forest fires in Siberia + Alaska + California + Europe as forests dry • Amazon + other forests CO2 absorption reducing as it dries out or dies off. • Water vapour in atmosphere increases as warms (5 - WRI) • Others (maybe 20?)

12. Is It Happening / Going To Happen Soon? Answer: Hard to tell. Why?:- • Information ranges from very alarming (6 - Jem Bendell's Deep Adaptation paper)to less alarming (7 - James Hansen’s “Saving Earth” Communication) - all from credible sources. My personal take: does look likely is happening and will progress quicker than expected over next 2 -> 20 years, with outcome likely to profoundly affect (or end?) my life. Still want better and less contradictory information though!

13. (3) What Info Is Available?

14. The Good... • Mainstream media - gradually getting less “good”:- • Events - Temperature records, forest fires, UN “climate disaster every week” • Opinion - varies, although some now talking in terms of “game over” • Books - can be scary e.g. “Uninhabitable Earth”, but author still talking in terms of doing things by 2050 and effects on next generation by 2100. • Government - talking of aiming for “net zero” by 2050 in the UK. Comforting as in terms of long term actions. • Scientists - Jim Hansen (7) “Saving Earth is a century-time-scale problem”... and, relax (a bit)! • Hothouse Earth paper (21) - alarming, but talks a lot about “end of the century”, which is reassuring.

15. The Good (continued)... • The IPCC 2018 reports gave us 12 years to act to avoid future catastrophic climate change (8 - The Guardian) • Problem = IPCC reports have so far not included feedback loops in the computer models they use, because it is impossible to model these kind of chaotic systems (9 - The Guardian) + (10 - What Lies Beneath report) • Summaries of reports are known to be toned down due to political pressure. • So… very likely to be over optimistic.

16. The Bad...

17. The Bad...(continued) • Arctic Sea Ice Volume - down from 15 to 5 in 30 years. Did you know? • When will probably be gone (given rate of melting is increasing)? (11) • Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University gives it only few years (12) • Wrong estimate in 2010, but look at graph to see why... • Graph and knowledge of feedbacks makes his estimate credible. • What effects of disappearance on weather and us? • Wavy Jetstream causing weather that affects crop yields (20) • Increased droughts and heavy rainfall -> affect on crop production (18) (19) • Extinction Rebellion website - food insecurity by 2040 or 2 degrees (13)

18. The Ugly... • Jem Bendell (Professor of Sustainability Leadership, Uni Of Cumbria) Deep Adaptation paper (6) “"When I say starvation, destruction, migration, disease and war, I mean in your own life. With the power down, soon you won't have water coming out of your tap. You will depend on your neighbours for food and some warmth. You will become malnourished. You won't know whether to stay or go. You will fear being violently killed before starving to death."” • Gail Bradbrook of XR - in few years may not have food on shelves -> riots+facsism (17) • Arctic News Blog (approach with caution!) - “Arctic Sea Ice Gone By September 2019?” + “"a 10°C temperature rise could eventuate within a matter of years" (14) - (hard to tell who authors site.)

19. The Ugly… Forests In California (24)

20. The Ugly… Forests In California (Sierra Nevada) 80% Dead (24) 66 million dead trees in 2016 (26)

21. The Ugly... Dying Trees You Can See (In Hertford) • ItalianAlps

22. Two Minutes Silence Idea from Gail Bradbrook of Extinction Rebellion talk (15) “Grief is welcome here” + “The only cure for grief is to grieve” (also my personal experience).

23. Summary IPCC reports - looks like can’t be trusted as leave out crucial feedback loops. Mainstream media + politicians - can’t be fully trusted as politically/financially constrained Wide range of info from many credible sources -> confusing + disturbing.

24. (Section 3) Current Response To This Info Public:- • IPCC + Bad news + XR + Greta having impact on public opinion :-) • ...but most public not doing anything new/different (e.g. researching, telling, fund raising, marching, reducing flights etc) Govt:- • Declared “Climate Emergency” but not backed up with concrete, immediate and radical policies. • Why? Public opinion dictates govt action.

25. Scariest Part For Me • Not that this is happening (that is already pretty scary) • But that almost everyone I see and speak to is actively denying this:- • People I know - I say stuff and often gets ignored or pushed back • Politicians - doesn’t register properly, they start talking about 5p charge on carrier bags • Climate scientists - one at talk re IPCC feedback loops, one on bird programme, Jim Hansen This is scary enough, without everyone around you sleepwalking into it!

26. Closed Vicious Circle Of Information Public (mainly) base opinions on:- Govt policy, mainstream media, scientists and opinions of friends. But…. Government can only base policy on public opinion in order to stay electable. Mainstream media can only publish content that will not reduce readership by overly alarming them. Scientists pressured not to be too alarmist, or will lose funding from govts. Friends base opinion on other friends.

27. Extinction Rebellion’s First Demand Without breaking previous vicious cycle of information, seems very hard for govt to meet… Tell The Truth (16):- • Politicians mostly don’t know basic facts, so need to learn first. • They (correctly) concerned too much “truth” and voters will be scared off and stop voting for their party. • “The Truth” covers a wide range of levels of alarm depending on what you look at. • Can definitely be more honest and supply more information though. • Public need encouragement and the ability to find their own personal “Climate Reality” based on doing their own investigation of the information available.

28. Extinction Rebellion’s Second Demand Act Now - net zero by 2025 (15) … but public will think:- • Why the urgency? All my usual sources give less urgent impression. • How? Not much good information on how this could be achieved, so public will dismiss. And govt must (due to democratic process) mainly follow wishes of public.

29. Extinction Rebellion’s Problem XR = brilliant, inspiring, amazing and vital.... … but attempted political solution relies on politicians being able to act radically and quickly, which relies on strong public support, which is not there. Root of problems is deeper than politics:- • Information - vicious cycle means mainly over optimistic. Researching internet -> hard to assess and come to understanding of level of urgency. • Emotions - information from papers, TV, internet is hard to process emotionally and so gets blocked. Possible destruction of your world needs much more than your TV or computer can ever do - to be absorbed and dealt with. We need a Personal Revolution, not just Political!

30. (Section 5) What Can You/We Do? Two things:- • Help make information on abrupt climate change easier to access and make sense of http://abruptclimatechange.earth • Help develop and try a way of encouraging and emotionally supporting people to find and act on their own climate reality. http://theidea.earth

31. (a) Making Sense Of Info On Abrupt Climate Change http://abruptclimatechange.earth • Will help you answers question: “What is the available information on abrupt climate change and how/when it could directly affect me + what can I do about it?” • Group project. Mainly volunteer. Collaborate with XR + all others. • Easy to understand summaries of information, with links to more detailed info and all sources. • School + young people resource area. • Assessment of credibility of sources. • EPACC - also maybe start new Expert Panel on Abrupt Climate Change?

32. TheIdea.Earth http://theidea.earth Personal, emotional way of helping people you know learn about + act on abrupt climate change. Situation:- • Abrupt Climate Change = very scary, so avoided by:- • Post truth argument • Look around, no one else panicking and media/govt still OK about it. • Poor will be worse off (so I’ll probably be OK).....“That is illogical, captain”

33. Scary Information Overload As more scary information is coming through media, lots of people are taking it on, but lots more are strengthening their psychological defenses and carrying on as usual. • Deeply emotional and personal issue • Maybe deeply emotional and personal approach will help?...

34. Details Talk to people you already know (not strangers):- • Ask if can have quick chat about CC • 5 min chat to explain idea (from http://theidea.earth ) • Meet for hour or so to talk about coping + anxiety techniques to help face difficult information. Also +ve things like actions, and possible climate repair. • Meet again later for hour or two to provide emotional support as person does their own research online about current and possible future climate situation. • Support them emotionally after their research. • If they now want to act, work with them in small supportive group doing things (see website for list of possible things you can do, not just “write MP and reduce consumption”)

35. Success Rate So Far? • Zero out of One! - after talking to my brother. • Going to be talking to other people I know. • Every failure I learn more about why people can’t/won’t face up to this -> Film. • Would be good if you could try this, and let me know how it went. Needs to become your idea, not mine, and needs to constantly improve... and fast.

36. Facing Up To Climate Reality = Not All Bad • Finally stop feel anxious about things and not knowing why • Finally face up to reality and do something about it, with other like minded people. • You’ll be in a group who are doing something amazing - fighting for survival! • Think can use culture, creativity and groups to make it a positive thing, you may even wish you’d done it earlier! Once you get over the initial shock, think it can be OK, if you have the right techniques and support.

37. Summary Problem 1: Information on Abrupt Climate Change limited + hard to assess. Solution 1: Create and work together on resource that make it clear + easy. Problem 2: Accepting and acting on info is v hard emotionally. Public = blocked. Solution 2: Personal and emotional approach with people you know already.

38. Main Take Home If we don’t start managing to help individuals to discover and face up to climate reality we are not going to prevent this and we are not even going to be ready for it when it hits us, which could be soon and fast. => Likely very chaotic situation (societal breakdown?), if we are not prepared. At least if we are aware we can get prepared and things will be less chaotic and maybe we’ll manage...

39. Quick Survey Before Ending... Who here:- • Feels they really did know a reasonable amount about climate change • Lives in a world where they feels they are fighting for their own survival (not the planets!) in the next decade or two? • Was surprised at the % of Arctic ice has gone in the last 30 years • Will help me or do something else to help based on what you’ve heard tonight

40. Climate Repair Talks • Institute Of Mechanical Engineers • https://events.imeche.org/ViewEvent?code=TDB6974(22) • “New tools for Climate Repair: an introduction for engineers” • 11th September 2019 - 6pm • Free • Sir David King FRS, former Chief Scientific Adviser to the Prime Minister (2000 -2007) who is setting up new Centre For Climate Repair (23) • Includes talks on Iron Salt Aerosol

41. Thank You + Questions

42. Cultural Effects • Songs - escaping,knowing,ending,saving,planet (25) • Childhood anxiety • Adult anxiety/depression • Constant need to be on phone/computer/TV to distract? + “Keep Calm And Carry On…” • Sudden popularity of fantasy films, TV in last 20 years for adults (need to escape) • Politics - rise of fascism in Italy, France, US, Eastern Europe. People vote for “strong” leaders when scared. • Car fascinations/meets - staring into the flame that burns you?