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csee.wvu/~jalali

www.csee.wvu.edu/~jalali. October 23, 2002. Overview. Introduction Where we are? Where we go? What is the fourth wave? What is education for the fourth wave? Conclusions. PART 1 Introduction?. SCIENCE FICTION. “IMAGINATION,” said Albert Einstein, “is more important than knowledge.”.

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csee.wvu/~jalali

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  1. www.csee.wvu.edu/~jalali October 23, 2002

  2. Overview • Introduction • Where we are? • Where we go? • What is the fourth wave? • What is education for the fourth wave? • Conclusions

  3. PART 1 Introduction?

  4. SCIENCE FICTION “IMAGINATION,” said Albert Einstein, “is more important than knowledge.” Imagination and fantasy often point the way to real-world developments. Many inventions, such as airplanes, radio, robots, the laser, and television, were first described in science fiction.

  5. 1st Wave: Agricultural Age (29,500 Years) Goal Produce Food 2nd wave: Industrial Age (500 Years) Goal ProduceMaterial 3rd wave: Information Age ( 25 Years) Goal Produce Information 4th wave:?Age ( 20 Years ahead!) What is the 4th wave of change?

  6. Alvin Toffler and the Third Wave • He has written about society, culture, the media, organizations, science, computers, politics, and economics. • Third wave, based not on muscle but on mind. It is what we variously call the information or the knowledge age. ARE THESE CATEGORIES STILL RELEVANT?

  7. Why Subject is Important • During periods of great change (like now), we must know about the future. • We must be able to prepare for what’s ahead. • We should know the function of each age. • We should know the role of breakthrough technologies in that process.

  8. Simple workers will be reduced to 2% in the USA by year 2030 33% 17% 2% 1960 1995 2030 Today, only %17 of the workfource is directly involved in the material production of physical goods

  9. What is the Fourth Wave? Education for the Fourth Wave Space Age

  10. What is the Fourth Wave? Education for the Fourth Wave Genetic Engineering Age

  11. Education for the Fourth Wave

  12. What is the Fourth Wave? Education for the Fourth Wave Nanotechnology Age

  13. PART 2 Where we are? Home Management Internet Refrigerator Internet Smell Detector Internet Car

  14. EDUCATION WORKING FOR PEACE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SCIENCES CULTURE COMMUNICATION UNESCO’S unique contribution: mobilizing the major intellectual sectors to prevent and solve problems, through coordinated action.

  15. World Population from -1600 to 2000

  16. World Population 1000-2000 6.1 1.5 1 0.72 Reduction of natural resources 0.5 0.42 0.33 Population (in billion)

  17. World Population 1900-2000 50% of the W. P. are under 25 years old. 6.1 The W. P. will be increased one billion each 12 years till the year 2050. 5 3 2 The land used for farming has been reduced by 50% from 50 years ago. 1.6 Population (in billion)

  18. Inventions from 1900-1980 lamp radio 1906 laser 1960 plastic 1909 industrial robot 1961 refrigerator 1913 microscope 1970 lamp television 1923 video recorder 1971 radar 1940 scanner 1972 atomic bomb 1945 GPS 1973 transistor 1947 genetic engineering 1974 computer 1948 high speed train 1978 optic fiber 1955 walk-man 1979

  19. COMPUTERS WILL BE MORE HUMAN

  20. SOFTWARE WILL GET SMARTER

  21. WORLD WIDE WEB THE WEB WILL BE SMART

  22. Life Sciences - Re-Engineering of Life Itself • Tele-diagnostics Technologies • Implantable Integrated Biodevices • Recombinant DNA – Genopharmacology • Bio-engineered Organisms, Tissue Systems, Organs

  23. PART 2 Where we go?

  24. Primary Elements of The Emergent Operational Ecology • Infotech • Biotech • Nanotech

  25. THE THREE MOST IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGICAL ELEMENTS IN CHANGING THE WORLD High Speed CPU’s Large Capacity Memories High Speed Media

  26. Transistor Count Versus Year for Microprocessors 1000 1000 200 200 Production of Transistors are 5000 billion for a day! Million High Speed CPU’s 9.5 7.5 5.5 3.1 1.2 0.029 Year

  27. THE FOUR CRUCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL COMPONENTS IN CHANGING THE WORLD High Speed CPU’s Large Capacity Memories High Speed Media High Speed Media

  28. Transistor Count Versus Year for Microprocessors 1000 1000 200 200 Production of Transistors are 5000 billion for a day! Million High Speed CPU’s 9.5 7.5 5.5 3.1 1.2 0.029 Year

  29. Transistor Count Versus Year for Microprocessors Year Introduced Approximate Number of Transistors Version 29,000 1.2 Million 3.1 Million 5.5 Million 7.5 Million 9.5 Million 200 Million 1 Billion 1980 1990 1993 1995 1997 1999 2005 2011 8086 80486 Pentium Pentium Pro Pentium II Pentium III ULSI ?

  30. The ULSI chip in the year 2005 Minimum feature size of process technology 0.1 micro m Total number of transistors 200 million Chip size 550 mm^2 Clock frequency 2-3.5 GHz Number of I/O connections 4000 Number of wiring levels 7-8 Supply voltage 0.9-1.2 V By the year 2011 there will be one billion transistor on a single chip.

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