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DNB & IntraFish Seafood Investment Forum 19th November 2013. Dag Sletmo, Investor Relations Manager. Company overview 3Q results Biological outlook Market outlook Regulatory issues and growth. Agenda. Cermaq top 3 farmer by volume, large Chile exposure.
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DNB & IntraFish Seafood Investment Forum 19th November 2013 Dag Sletmo, Investor Relations Manager
Company overview 3Q results Biological outlook Market outlook Regulatory issues and growth Agenda
Cermaq top 3 farmer by volume, large Chile exposure GLOBAL HARVEST OF ATLANTIC SALMON (2013e ) CERMAQ (SOLD VOLUME, LTM per Q3 2013) GLOBAL TOP 20 SALMON FAMRMERS Others Canada Others 0(0%) • 18(12%) • 298(15%) Canada Norway • 107(5%) 53(36%) 1,138(57%) Norway • 468(23%) Chile • 75(51%) Chile
A global leader in sustainable aquacultureCermaq’s value chain • Research & development Research & Development Pelagic fishing • Fish meal and fish oil production • Smolt • production • Secondary • Processing • (VAP) • Salmon farming • Primary • processing • Feed production • Terrestrial farming • Raw material processing
Company overview • 3Q results • Biological outlook • Market outlook • Regulatory issues and growth
Highlights – Cermaq pro forma • Group pro forma EBIT pre fair value NOK 113m • Excludes EWOS results for Q3 • Mainstream EBIT pre fair value NOK 144m from improved salmon prices • Sale of EWOSsuccessfully completed 31 Oct • Classified as discontinued operations from Q313 • NOK 114m gain from saleof Copeinca shares • Proceeds of NOK 929m received in Q3 * EBIT pre fair value adjustments on live inventory and non-recurring items ** Pro forma is exluding EWOS *** Return on capital employed, 12-months rolling average, based on EBIT pre fair value and bargain purchase gain
Mainstream results • Volumes increased by 14% vs Q312 • 3kt below communicated estimate for Q313 • Strong EBIT improvement from Q312 • Substantial increase in salmon prices vs Q312 • Solid contribution from all regions • Positive ROCE 12m - first time in 4 quarters
Sale of EWOS completed Key financial highlights of the transaction Enterprise Value NOK 6.5bn Proceeds of NOK 6.2bn received at closing 31 October 2013 Contingent consideration of NOK 180m to be received at a later stage Final proceeds based on a completion statement before year-end Concluding certain adjustment items, including net working capital (NWC) vs normalized NWC Reported gain estimated at NOK 2.0–2.5bn Extraordinary dividend in the range of NOK 4.5–5.0bn (NOK 48–54/share) Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) expected late December Refinancing of Cermaq to be completed prior to EGM Likely payment date early January 2014 To be paid out as ordinary dividend 3Q results
Cermaq pro forma financials • Pro forma figures for illustrative purposes • The pro forma balance • Includes operational items in Mainstream towards EWOS • Excludes all financial items towards EWOS • Excludes any cash balance in CEQ • NIBD & Equity line only for illustration
Company overview • 3Q results • Biological outlook • Market outlook • Regulatory issues and growth
Current fish health status • MS Canada • MS Norway • No new outbreaks of IHN – All fish in BC vaccinated • Higher than normal sea lice levels, but not alarming • Algae and low Dissolved Oxygen levels (DO) • Overall status is good • Mortality is low • Higher than normal sea lice levels this fall. Resistance in Nordland is causing concerns • PD in Finnmark. All sites in Langfjorden depopulated • MS Chile • Caligus and SRS is challenging, but levels better than last quarter • Increasing use of antibiotics
Preventive measures per country • MS Canada • MS Norway • IHN: Screening, reduced handling and vaccination • Winter Ulcers: Vaccination, vitamin C trials and antibiotics trials • Algae and DO: Close monitoring and preventive measures. Results from R&D promising • Stress reducing measures • Education and competence building • Working on smolt sourcing • MS Chile • Selective use of sites • SRS vaccine trials • Antiparasite treatments
Sanitary situation in Chile – lice level improved • Reduced sea lice levels • More industry coordination • Regulator activity • Winter season • Improved mortality • SRS main challenge but better control of disease • Early harvest of CAD sites* • Seasonality All data are for Mainstream Chile *Category high dissemination site (sites with weekly average of more than 9 total adult caligus per fish)
The cornerstones of Cermaq’s strategy • Diversification • Diversification by geography and species • Optimal feed and nutrition • Smolt quality • Preventive fish health
Company overview 3Q results Biological outlook Market outlook Regulatory issues and growth Market outlook
Harvest and supply Harvest of Atlantic salmon Sales per region of Atlantic salmon Source: Kontali Analyse
Outlook 2014 Annual harvest, kt • Strong Coho season to support improved results in Chile • Reduction of biological challenges and cost improvement in Chile main focus in 2014 • 14% organic volume growth 2014 vs 2013 • Continued tight supply supports strong market during 2014 161 kt 120 kt 109 kt 141 kt +14% +18% +10%
Market prices farmed salmonids Source: Urner Berry
Company overview • 3Q results • Biological outlook • Market outlook • Regulatory issues and growth
Demand for animal proteins increases • Source: UN Population Division, Brookings Institution, FAO • Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation. • Graph courtesy The Economist
Growing income levels drive protein demand Demand: emerging markets a key driver • Growing population drives food demand • Sources: FAO, IMF, Cermaq
Supply: seafood is a small food category • Seafood 2% of world food production • Farmed salmon only 1.5% of seafood production • Plenty room for growth • World food consumption, calories • Sources: FAO
Supply: flat wild catch an opportunity and a threat • Opportunity: wild catch has been flat for 25 years • Aquaculture must provide the growth to satisfy growing demand • Threat: marine content in salmon feed comes from wild catch • Sources: FAO
Salmon farming is efficient, low on carbon footprint and fresh water usage – and tastes good!
Growth has been massive – can it continue? • Volume 10.1% CAGR last 20 years, 6.5% CAGR last 10 years • Source: Kontali
Prerequisites for continued growth • Regulatory issues • Norway • Chile • Canada • Access to raw materials for feed • Potential from discards and trimmings
Feed raw material availabilitySo far so good, but there is a limit MT, feed sold vs marine ingredients used. EWOS • Millions of tonnes
Future (new) sources globally: Animal plankton (krill, raudåte) Macro algae Onecell biomass Agricultural waste from plants and animals Genetically modified plants Feed resources for the futureDiscards and trimmings are very interesting Partially used (known resources globally) • Harvest from fishing which is not used for human consumption (20-30 mill tonnes) • Discards from fishing fleet and processing • From fleet 7 mill tonnes • From processing 26 mill tonnes • Agricultural products and waste • Important to create an economic incentive for the fishing fleet to deliver discards and trimmings to the aquafeed industry. The physical product is there, the buyers are there and willing to pay – but the logistics chain must be built