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Presented at the American Evaluation Association/Canadian Evaluation Society Joint Conference

Crossing Methodological Borders to Develop and Implement an Approach for Determining the Value of Energy Efficiency R&D Programs. Presented at the American Evaluation Association/Canadian Evaluation Society Joint Conference Toronto, Canada October 28, 2005 Scott Albert, GDS Associates

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Presented at the American Evaluation Association/Canadian Evaluation Society Joint Conference

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  1. Crossing Methodological Borders to Develop and Implement an Approach for Determining the Value of Energy Efficiency R&D Programs Presented at the American Evaluation Association/Canadian Evaluation Society Joint Conference Toronto, Canada October 28, 2005 Scott Albert, GDS Associates Helen Kim, NYSERDA Rick Ridge, Ridge & Associates Gretchen B. Jordan, Sandia National Laboratory

  2. The NYSERDA Portfolio

  3. R&D Budget Through 12/31/04

  4. Objective • Develop and pilot-test an evaluation model for NYSERDA’s R&D program area covering 1998 through 2004 that recognizes: • R&D programs and their societal impacts are difficult to evaluate by their nature. • The outcomes are subject to multiple and uncontrollable influences that are difficult to foresee. • The cycle for product development is 5 to 15 or 20 years and many of the energy and economic impacts of R&D projects may not be fully realized and measured for many years. • Given the multiple and compounding effects that happen along the way, it is also very difficult to be exact about the attribution of impacts to any one particular effort. • When evaluating an entire portfolio of R&D projects, objectives and outcomes vary by project.

  5. R&D Portfolio Logic Model

  6. Six Stages of the R&D Model • Information for policy makers and R&D community • Product development stage 1 – study and prove concepts • Product development stage 2 – develop new or improved products • Product development stage 3 – product testing • Demonstration • Pre-deployment

  7. The Value/Cost MethodCombines Two Approaches • Aggregate approach • Analyzed data collected for each of NYSERDA’s 638 R&D projects (since 1998) in the portfolio. • Basic statistics, such as the number of projects, expenditures by technology type, leveraged funds, and the stage of development were calculated to describe the entire R&D portfolio. • Peer Review • Analyzed using an adaptation of the Composite Performance Rating System (CPRS) used to evaluate the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Advanced Technologies Program (ATP). • Peer review approach was applied to a small sample of successful R&D projects, covering each of the six R&D stages (project types).

  8. ATP: Composite Performance Rating System Constructed Bottom-up; Used Top-down Performance Distribution for the Portfolio Distribution by Tech Area Distribution by Firm Size Distribution by Location etc. CPRS 1 CPRS 2 CPRS 3 CPRS 4 CPRS n ... Project 1 Case Study Project 2 Case Study Project 3 Case Study Project 4 Case Study Project n Case Study • Unique cases • Aggregate statistics • Composite scores • Performance distributions • Minimum net portfolio benefits ATP Method R.Ruegg, Nov. 2002

  9. AGGREGATE ANALYSIS • Expanded and updated R&D database in order to carry out a comprehensive descriptive analysis of the entire R&D portfolio. • Variables Considered • Funding • Technology Area • Co-Funding Entity • Project Status • Expected Benefits from R&D Projects

  10. Questions Addressed by Aggregate Analysis • How does NYSERDA funding per project vary by project type? • How does NYSERDA funding per project vary by program? • What is the frequency of the various project types? • What goals are being served by the various project types? • What are the primary goals served by the portfolio? • What are the sources of funding, by project type? • What is the funding share contributed by partners? • How does NYSERDA funding and co-funding vary by project type over time? • How does the mix of technologies and issues examined change over time?

  11. Results:Aggregate Analysis

  12. NYSERDA Funding, by Project Type

  13. Funding by Goals

  14. Co-Funding Sources

  15. Percent of Projects by Technology and Year

  16. Peer Review Focused on Six Success Stories as a Pilot Test

  17. Indicator Variables • Choice of indicator variables for the R&D portfolio guided by the R&D portfolio logic model. • Six categories of outcomes, identified in the logic model were selected: • Knowledge creation, • Knowledge dissemination, • Commercialization progress, • Energy benefits, • Economic benefits, and • Environmental benefits.

  18. Accomplishment Packets • Project-specific accomplishment packets were then developed to document objective evidence regarding the six outcomes: • Knowledge creation • Knowledge dissemination • Commercialization progress • Realized and potential energy benefits • Realized and potential economic benefits • Realized and potential environmental benefits • Value versus cost (not a specific outcome, but this item was also included in the peer-reviewer response packet for 0 to 4 rating)

  19. Review Process • Reviewers willing to participate were sent: • Peer Review Instructions, • Conflict of Interest Form • Peer Review Assessment Form, and • the Peer Review Information Packet for their specific project. • Over a period of five weeks, the reviewers completed their assessment and returned them for data entry.

  20. Results:Peer Review

  21. Weighted Rating By Project

  22. Overall Ratings by Outcome

  23. Overall Ratings, by Project, by Outcomes

  24. Conclusions: Aggregate Analysis • Assumes more risk than the commercial sector in the earlier stages of technology development, while in the latter stages, the reverse is true. • Covers a wide range of technologies that are aimed at achieving potentially significant energy, economic and environmental benefits. • Leverages funds on a 4.3 to 1 ratio. • Partners with a wide range of public and private organizations and institutions. • Evolves over time in response to the societal needs and opportunities to address them (i.e., the technologies and issues addressed in the R&D portfolio are not static).

  25. Conclusions: Peer Review • Peer review scores from the pilot test averaged 3.34 (on a 0-to-4 scale) across all assessment categories. • There are substantial benefits across all documented accomplishment areas for the five projects assessed. • Significant progress is being made toward the eventual achievement of measurable 3-E benefits.

  26. Conclusions: Peer Review Process • The information provided in the review packets for the five selected projects was adequate • The instructions provided were clear • The criteria used in the assessments were clearly defined • The criteria used in the assessments were the right ones • It is very important for NYSERDA to assess the value of its R&D programs • The results of the peer review process should be useful for NYSERDA decision-makers • Reviewers can assess a fair amount of information if the information is presented in a clear and organized format. • Statistical analyses revealed that the ratings provided by the peer reviewers were reliable.

  27. Next Steps • Routinize the collection of key indicator data for all R&D projects. • Perform aggregate analysis on all projects • Focus significant effort on a more representative sample of projects

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