1 / 12

World Energy Outlook: Key Trends

World Energy Outlook: Key Trends. Pawel Olejarnik Research Analyst IEA Economic Analysis Division. The Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand. 18 000. Other renewables. Nuclear. 16 000. Biomass. 14 000. Gas. 12 000. 10 000. Mtoe. Coal. 8 000. 6 000. 4 000. Oil. 2 000.

waldemar
Download Presentation

World Energy Outlook: Key Trends

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. World Energy Outlook: Key Trends Pawel Olejarnik Research Analyst IEA Economic Analysis Division

  2. The Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand 18 000 Other renewables Nuclear 16 000 Biomass 14 000 Gas 12 000 10 000 Mtoe Coal 8 000 6 000 4 000 Oil 2 000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms

  3. Reference Scenario:Increase in World Oil Supply, 2004-2030 25 20 Other 15 mb/d Iran 10 Iraq 5 S.Arabia 0 OPEC conventional Non-conventional Non-OPEC conventional The share of OPEC in world oil supply increases sharply as conventional non-OPEC production peaks towards the middle of next decade

  4. Proven Natural Gas Reserves Gas reserves are concentrated in FSU and MENA regions – Russia and Iran together account almost half of global gas reserves

  5. Reference Scenario:World Incremental Electricity Generation by Fuel 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 TWh 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 - 500 2004-2015 2015-2030 Oil Nuclear Other renewables Hydro Gas Coal Most of the additional demand for electricity is expected to be met by coal, which remains the world’s largest source of electricity to 2030

  6. 50 40 Increase of 14.3 Gt (55%) 30 billion tonnes 20 10 0 1990 2004 2010 2015 2030 Coal Oil Gas Reference Scenario:Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Fuel Half of the projected increase in emissions comes from new power stations, mainly using coal & mainly located in China & India

  7. Reference Scenario:Cumulative Investment, 2005-2030 $20.2 trillion (in $2005) Electricity 56% Oil 21% $11.3 trillion $4.3 trillion Biofuels 1% $0.6 trillion $3.9 trillion Gas 19% Coal 3% Investment needs exceed $20 trillion – $3 trillion more than previously projected, mainly because of higher unit costs

  8. Alternative Policy Scenario

  9. The Alternative Policy Scenario:Key Policies for CO2 Reduction 42 Increased nuclear (10%) Increased renewables (12%) Power sector efficiency & fuel (13%) 38 Electricity end-use efficiency (29%) Reference Scenario Fossil-fuel end-use efficiency (36%) 34 Gt of CO2 Alternative Policy Scenario 30 26 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Improved end-use efficiency accounts for over two-thirds of avoided emissions in 2030 in the APS

  10. Summing Up • The Reference Scenario projects a vulnerable, dirty and expensive global energy system • The WEO maps out a cleaner, cleverer and more competitive energy future based on alternative policies • Action within next ten years is crucial. • Strong political will and urgent government action is needed to create clear incentives to change existing investment patterns

  11. China Energy demand India Rest of the world Coal demand Oil demand Oil imports CO2 emissions 0% 0% 20% 20% 40% 40% 60% 60% 80% 80% 100% 100% WEO 2007: Why Focus on China & India? Increase in World Primary Energy Demand, Imports & Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in the Reference Scenario, 2000-2006 China & India contributed more than half of the increase in global demand for energy and over 80% for coal

  12. Thank you pawel.olejarnik@iea.org www.worldenergyoutlook.org

More Related