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Breaking the Link between Growth and Impact: The Challenge of this Decade

Breaking the Link between Growth and Impact: The Challenge of this Decade . Peter Young Strategy Director SKM Enviros & Chairman, Aldersgate Group IEMA Conference Tuesday 15 th November 2011. The next 25 minutes we will:. Remind ourselves where we are heading, it’s getting really urgent.

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Breaking the Link between Growth and Impact: The Challenge of this Decade

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  1. Breaking the Link between Growth and Impact:The Challenge of this Decade

    Peter Young Strategy Director SKM Enviros & Chairman, Aldersgate Group IEMA Conference Tuesday 15th November 2011
  2. The next 25 minutes we will: Remind ourselves where we are heading, it’s getting really urgent. Introduce the three key components to give us economic prosperity whilst changing course for a sustainable future Electricity Energy efficiency Resource efficiency Ask what are the UK’s Policy Priorities? Hear my top 4 actions Keep up, breaking the link between growth and impact is a big ask!
  3. Where are we heading?Global Population in Billions.... What do you think we can cope with re: Carbon Dioxide? Water? Food?
  4. .....Observed Global Temperatures and Carbon Dioxide + ...
  5. .... Future Carbon Dioxide Emissions to 2100 +6oC? +2oC?
  6. UK GHG emissions since 1990: Production down by c15% but Consumption up by c20% DE-Coupling Growth and IMPACT: A CALL TO ACTION
  7. Cities: Design for eg Carbon Intensity
  8. Food Supply and Security Food now 23% of global ecological footprint with 2.5bn more to feed in next 30 years Eg in UK we need 5.2gha, when 1.7gha is available capacity/capita Water use, sustainable nutrients and food supply chain must all be reformed Taxation, regulation, procurement and consumer behaviour change are all required - urgently
  9. Carbon - The UK’s statutory targets 34% cut in emissions on 1990 levels by 2020 – Energy/resource efficiency is the quickest gain GHG reduction: illustrative contribution from different sectors
  10. By 2050 UK carbon targets require transformation of whole economy – and transformation means electrification Not only de-carbonising electricity generation But also to facilitate savings in other energy use emissions categories Most sectors rely on more electricity and efficiency
  11. DE-Coupling Growth and IMPACT:1. Electricity SUPPLY
  12. Around 25GW will need to be replaced in next 10 years – but...
  13. ...Changing Demand means we need more Demand doubles by 2030 Peak in 2010 = ~45GW Peak in 2030 = ~85GW New loads heat pumps / plug in vehicles Better storage vital Potential cost £110 billion over decade: £75bn on generation £35bn on distribution (>double last 10 years) Figure taken from Energy White Paper
  14. UK renewables – lots to do
  15. Incentives for renewables Feed in Tariffs - most successful financial incentive for renewable electricity - real growth in capacity But regular revisions in quickly changing market (though changes not dramatic enough to destabilise the market) Need to be economically sustainable Need clear long term targets
  16. Policies: Feed-in tariffs: a track record of driving investment Feed-in tariffs (FiTs) are in place in ~28 countries; designs and impact vary widely FiTs supported: 75% of global PV capacity and 45% of global wind capacity through 2008
  17. 2009EU newCapacity26 GW
  18. PV - European success story Source: EPIA Global Market outlook for PV until 2015
  19. EU – installed PV as at 2010 Success Reflects FiTs not Sunshine! Source: EPIA Global Market outlook for PV until 2015
  20. DE-Coupling Growth and IMPACT:2. ENERGY EFFICIENCY
  21. Global Energy Demand
  22. ..... Global Energy Inefficiency.... 7
  23. DE-Coupling Growth and IMPACT:3. Resource EFFICIENCY(materials + WATER)
  24. The True Cost of Wastage Defra: £27bn/year Visible costs 10% Direct use 10% Energy Bill Waste Bill Water Bill Productivity Transportation Other Utilities Raw Materials Maintenance Handling & Storage Labour Hidden costs 90%! Indirect use 90%!
  25. Waste Prevention Waste Management
  26. Prevention vs Recycling Multiplier (CO2e)
  27. One Case Study: Process Efficiency Toiletries manufacturer £16m turnover £20k waste bill, but .... 3% mixing and filling losses 5% product never sold!
  28. Build on a great platform, UK has led in long term policies – Climate Change Act, Statutory Carbon Budgets Deliver on promising new initiatives of Green Investment Bank, Green Deal, Natural Environment White Paper (Natural Capital Accounts) and Electricity Market Reform Remove uncertainty; and clarify and simplify wherever possible Build credibility to encourage bold international decisions at Durban, Rio +20 Demonstrate that green growth and sustainability is at the core of all future UK economic policy and support What are the UK policy Priorities?
  29. Example - Decarbonisation of Energy Supply and Use.... Clear enough yet? Domestic Energy Users Industrial Energy Users Commercial Energy Users Utility Energy Supplies Decarbonise Electricity Supplies Renewable Obligation FITS Electricity Market Reform EUETS Decarbonise Heat Supplies RHI CCL Exemption for CHP CCAs EUETS Energy Efficiency CRC Building Regulations Green Deal
  30. Electricity Market Reform - Timeline Secondary Leg. Primary Leg. *First CfD signed *possible first payments *Capacity procured as required *CFP rising incrementally (£16 to £30) *EPS in force RO open to new gen. Choice RO or CfD. RO vintaged FiTs - Feed in Tariffs;CfD- Contracts for Difference; CFP- Carbon Floor Price; EPS - Emissions Performance Standard; RO - Renewable Obligation
  31. Electricity Market Reform – don’t forget energy efficiency DECC to have new office “to drive a step change in national energy efficiency in autumn of 2011” DECC will “work with leading industrial experts to drive further carbon abatement across the economy” DECC focus – heating and cooling Incentives for Energy Efficiency will be assessed by Government over coming year
  32. Aldersgate Group’s ‘Growth Statement’ Streamline climate change & energy policy to raise ambition; reduce complexity; drive more investment in energy efficiency. Clear rationale and objectives to meet the commitment to increase the proportion of tax revenue from environmental taxes. Ensure the sectoral growth reviews and enterprise zones are driving forces for a green economy. Put the Green Investment Bank at the forefront of the growth strategy by ensuring it can borrow on inception and pass legislation by 2012. Following publication of Skills for a Green Economy, work with business to develop a comprehensive action plan to address green skills gaps. Enhance public procurement role and increase support for research, development and demonstration (RD&D) to drive innovation.
  33. In Conclusion: My top 4 actions to De-Couple Growth and Impact: Recognition that sustainable growth is the only growth that is ..err... sustainable Clear long term policies and frameworks that tell investors there will be no U turns – evolution not revolution Relentless pricing of the environment and taxing ‘bads’ (carbon, pollution) not ‘goods’ (jobs, income) so the greener businesses will thrive and drive growth Me and you! Individual responsibility and behaviour change
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