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On Theories, Hypotheses, Variables, Validity, and Reliability

On Theories, Hypotheses, Variables, Validity, and Reliability. Theories and Hypotheses. What is (a) “theory”? On Hypotheses: They usually concern connections among “variables”; Concern causal relationships , attributes , and comparisons ; Should be testable and falsifiable.

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On Theories, Hypotheses, Variables, Validity, and Reliability

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  1. On Theories, Hypotheses, Variables, Validity, and Reliability

  2. Theories and Hypotheses • What is (a) “theory”? • On Hypotheses: • They usually concern connections among “variables”; • Concern causal relationships, attributes, andcomparisons; • Should be testable and falsifiable

  3. Testing a Hypothesis • Step 1: A One-Off Test: X➔Y? • Step 2: Make Multiple Observations in the same setting: • X➔Y1? • X➔Y2? • X➔Y3? …and so on.

  4. Testing a Hypothesis • Step 3: Multiple Observations in Dissimilar Settings • Step 4: Multiple Observations in Dissimilar Settings, Testing Competing Hypotheses • Step 5: Performing a “Crucial Experiment” to decide among Competing Hypotheses

  5. Testing a Hypothesis • An additional issue is the possible role of third (or other) variables in the posited relationship. • The “Spurious” Relationship: A Third Variable is really the Explanatory One: Z ↓ X →Y • The Intervening Variable: X precedes Y but does not cause Y directly: X→Z→Y

  6. Validity and Reliability • Validity: Are you measuring/studying what you CLAIM to be? • Face: Does the measure seem reasonable? • Construct: Is the construct used appropriate for addressing the concept that you want to measure? • Predictive: Does the measure have predictive capacity, if that’s desired? • Content: Does the measure include all relevant content that defines it? • Internal: Has you study been designed with enough control to ensure that the causal relationships discovered are real? • External: Has your study been designed to allow its findings to have relevance outside of the study site? • The problem with maintaining internal and external validity concurrently: control versus “realness.” • Reliability: Are your findings repeatable? • Some valid studies are not very reliable; some reliable measures are not very valid.

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