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State of the Future Index

State of the Future Index. Millennium Project February 13, 2003. The Process . Event/ Variable Matrix 58 x 20. 20 TIA Forecasts. 1. Probability vs. Time for all 58 events 2. Impact of the events, if they were to occur on the variables. SOFI Computation.

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State of the Future Index

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  1. State of the Future Index Millennium Project February 13, 2003

  2. The Process Event/ Variable Matrix 58 x 20 20 TIA Forecasts 1. Probability vs. Time for all 58 events 2. Impact of the events, if they were to occur on the variables SOFI Computation 1. Constructed hyperlink 2. Upgraded all historical data 3 Checked all data sources 4. New baseline forecasts 5. Upgraded historical data Analysis 1. Maintained the S-Shape weighting 2. Maintained the best and worst estimates 1. Compared with earlier SOFIs 2. Introduced new variable and events 3. Considered reasons for spread and policies

  3. For the SOFI • Recalculated all variable baseline forecasts 1982-2012 • Updated historical data • Selected a few new data sources • For the TIA's: • Eliminated future developments that seemed to have low impacts • Added a few new future developments • 110. Human cloning widely accepted and used • 112. Developed countries support massive debt forgiveness programs • 114. Legalization of some currently outlawed drugs • 116. Hydrogen economy: 5% of hydrocarbon fuels replaced with H2 combustion. • 130. Marshaling of resources by developed nations to end AIDS and treat HIV carriers • 180. Widespread practice of telemedicine, increasing health care access by 5% • Provided a modified run: • Higher baseline for AIDs Deaths • New event: 179. Weapons of mass destruction are used by terrorists • New variable: Proliferation: Number of Countries Having or Thought to Have Nuclear Capacity • Raised upper bound of possible casualties for Terrorism Changes From 2001 SOFI

  4. 1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 2 Food availability Cal/cp Developing Countries 3 GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US) 4 Percentage of Households w/ Access to Safe Water (15 Most Populated Countries) 6 CO2 atmospheric, ppm 7 Annual population additions millions 9 Percent unemployed 10 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above) 14 Annual AIDS deaths (millions) 15 Life Expectancy (World) 23 Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr) 24 Debt/GNP; Developing Countries (%) 25 Forest Lands (Million Hectares) 26 Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day 27 Terrorist Attacks 28 Violent Crime, 17 Countries (per 100,000 population) 30 Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free 38 School Enrollment, secondary (% school age) 39 Percentage of population w access to local health care (15 most populated countries) 50 (Modified Run) Number of Countries Having or Thought to Have Nuclear Capacity The Variables

  5. Events Considered 1. Gender selection, prenatal 2. Microbial resistance to antibiotics , 5% increased mortality 4. Mono-culture agriculture proves susceptible to attack 5. Biotech in agriculture: improved food availability. 7. Democracy: acceleration of trend toward democracy 8. Water: many political water issues resolved 9. Social marketing by governments 11. Cheaper drugs (25% on the average). 13. Convergence of info/ communication technologies 15. Solar power, possibly from solar satellites, wind or other alternate sources provides 5% of global power 17. Global political order:; more aspects of national sovereignty are subject to international decisions 18. Cars with low CO2: 19. Anti-aging therapy: low cost, life expectancy up 20% 20. Conflict resolution: effective techniques for non-violent conflict resolution 21. Gene therapy: 22. Inexpensive very long term contraceptives 23 Mideast and Gulf wars settled 24. Sustainability: pervasive environmental consciousness 25. Environmental security: important national security issue 26. Genetic design: control of genetics and biochemical processes of all living organisms. 27. Establishment of international police institutions and methods leading to a 25% reduction in violent crime. 29. Global economic drop of GDP per capita by 15%. 32. Internet use by dissidents, criminals, terrorists 33. HIV placed into a dormant state through the use of inexpensive and widely available drugs. 34. The number of nuclear warheads diminished by half. 35. New diseases: 2% diminished life expectancy 36. Elderly labor force. 37. Further industrialization of China, India.

  6. Events Considered (con't) 39. Desalination: 40. Economic participation of women in most poor countries 41. Mideast war escalates, Iraq war and its consequences interminable, or Chinese- Taiwan wars 42. Miniaturization of machines and electronics 43. NATO remaining strong and growing 45. Organized crime groups becoming sophisticated global enterprises: money laundering equals 5-10 % global GNP. 46. Standing UN peacekeeping 47. Rejection of free markets and return to communism 50. Oil prices climb to 75 dollars per barrel 53. Tele-citizens; people from poorer nations who live in richer nations help develop their original countries via volunteer telecommuting. 54. Religious leaders promote harmony among religions, 55. The reserves of natural resources continue to expand 56. UN reform 58. Increasing decision failures of governments 62. Development of the EU; extension to the East 68 Gangs prone to violence double in membership 70. Corruption in government causes governments to fall and new morality to exist 71. International corporations help build national infrastructures 73. Trade wars and protectionism become the norm 75. Decision making: effective systems for augmenting human intelligence 76. International Criminal Court, becomes effective deterrent 81. Large familles gain favor in most developed countries, raising over all annual population additions 5%. 82. Precision guided missiles for developing countries and terrorists 110. Human cloning widely accepted and used 112. Developed countries support massive debt forgiveness 114. Legalization of some currently outlawed drugs 116. Hydrogen economy: 5% of hydrocarbon fuels replaced with H2 combustion. 130. Marshaling of resources by developed nations to end AIDS and treat HIV carriers 179. (Modified Run) Weapons of mass destruction are used by terrorists 180. Widespread practice of telemedicine, increasing health care access by 5%

  7. Matrix Example (One Event, 6 Variables) 13. Convergence of information/ communication technologies (Including Internet) lead to improved education, employment, environment, health, and production. Event Probability Variables Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Year Probability Varbl>>> 1 2 3 4 6 7 2003 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 04 0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 05 0.5 -0.6 0.4 0.6 2.0 0.0 0.0 06 1.6 -0.9 0.6 0.9 3.0 0.0 0.0 07 2.9 -1.5 1.0 1.5 5.0 0.0 0.0 08 5.8 -2.1 1.4 2.1 7.0 0.0 0.0 09 11.5 -2.7 1.8 2.7 9.0 0.0 0.0 10 23.0 -3.0 2.0 3.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 11 46.1 -3.0 2.0 3.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 2012 92.2 -3.0 2.0 3.0 10.0 0.0

  8. TIA Forecasts of Variables

  9. TIA Forecasts of Variables

  10. TIA Forecasts of Variables

  11. TIA Forecasts of Variables

  12. Proliferation (Number of countries having or thought to have nuclear capacity)

  13. 2002 SOFI

  14. Comparison of 2000, 2001 and 2002 SOFI Baselines

  15. Top Developments Considered 179. Weapons of mass destruction are used by terrorists 41. Mideast war escalates, Iraq war and its consequences interminable 50,000 casualties over 4 years 32. Internet use by dissidents, criminals, terrorists for communications 17. Global political order: more aspects of national sovereignty are subject to international decisions (e.g. weapon of mass destruction, human rights) 45. Organized crime groups becoming sophisticated global enterprises 23. Mideast and Gulf wars settled 20. Conflict resolution: effective non-violent conflict resolution drop wars by 10% 82. Precision guided missiles for developing countries and terrorists 54. Religious leaders promote harmony among religions, discourage racial hatred 8. Water: many political water issues resolved (e.g. 50% of current disputes) 56. UN reform; first steps to global governance (not government). 76. International Criminal Court, becomes effective deterrent 58. Increasing decision failures of governments; inability to manage complex systems

  16. Changes Made to The Modified Forecast • Added: • Higher baseline for AIDs Deaths • New event: 179. Weapons of mass destruction are used by terrorists; raising upper bound of possible casualties for Terrorism • New variable: Proliferation: Number of Countries Having or Thought to Have Nuclear Capacity • Increased "worst" weight of Terrorist Attacks and Number of Armed Conflicts

  17. 2002 SOFI Modified Changes: High AIDs forecast Terrorist WMD introduced Proliferation variable introduced

  18. Number of People Killed or Wounded in Terrorist Attacks

  19. Annual AIDs Deaths

  20. Where From Here? • Further analysis of the 2002 SOFI: • explain the uncertainty • what stimulates change • what policies may be effective? • Develop interactive software (SV Node) • Repeat questionnaire to collect judgments about variables, weights, norms, and expectations • Produce SOFI's for and compare countries • Develop the techniques for organizations' planning and policy applications

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