Greenhouse Gases, Cosmic Rays and Mathematical Models

1. Greenhouse Gases, Cosmic Rays and Mathematical Models What Science Really Tells Us About Climate Change Dr. Terry Flower, ICCC9, July 2014

2. What I will tell you • What Science is capable of telling us

3. What I will tell you • What Science is capable of telling us • Greenhouse Gases

4. What I will tell you • What Science is capable of telling us • Greenhouse Gases • Cosmic Rays and the Sun

5. What I will tell you • What Science is capable of telling us • Greenhouse Gases • Cosmic Rays and the Sun • Mathematical Modeling

6. What I will tell you • What Science is capable of telling us • Greenhouse Gases • Cosmic Rays and the Sun • Mathematical Modeling • What I predict will be the future trend

7. Science has been successful • We got to the moon

8. Science has been successful • We got to the moon • We’ve made medical advances

9. Science has been successful • We got to the moon • We’ve made medical advances • Look at computers

10. Science has been successful • We got to the moon • We’ve made medical advances • Look at computers • The digital age

11. Science has been successful • We got to the moon • We’ve made medical advances • Look at computers • The digital age • Hubble Space Telescope

12. Science has been successful • We got to the moon • We’ve made medical advances • Look at computers • The digital age • Hubble Space Telescope • Missions to the Solar System

13. Science vs. Pseudo-Science TV Commercials make connections between science and their product

14. Department Names at Universities • Mathematical Science • Family, Consumer and Nutrition Science • Exercise Science • Social Science • Political Science

15. The Structure of Scientific RevolutionsThomas Kuhn, 1962 • How Science is done • Scientists perform experiments to reenforce the existing “Paradigm” • Existing “Paradigm” leads to crisis • New “Paradigm” • Vast differences between political and scientific revolutions but both have a common metaphor

16. Parallelism in Science and Politics • Both cease to meet needs of (at least) a segment of both communities that they themselves created • The sense of malfunction leads to crisis • Choice of a paradigm cannot be settled by logic and experiment alone – it depends on what works rather than truth itself

17. Water Vapor - the Main Greenhouse Gas • Eric Fetzer, an atmospheric scientist who works with AIRS data at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "Water vapor is the big player in the atmosphere as far as climate is concerned.“ • If we don’t understand water vapor contributions we don’t understand the climate.

18. Clouds are not well understood

19. Clouds • Cover 65% of the Earth, on the average • Can have a net cooling effect of 30 W/m2 • Anthropogenic sources are 1.6 W/m2total • Need to include cooling effect of clouds

20. Solar Activity and Climate Connection Inactive sun (low sunspot peak, long cycle length) > cold climate Active sun (high sunspot peak, short cycle length) > warm climate Solar magnetic field deflects galactic cosmic rays.

21. Lower B field → increased GCR → increased monsoon intensity • HenrikSvensmark – The Chilling Stars an explanation of the physical mechanism, not yet confirmed

22. Cloud – GCR Effects • Original GCR-cloud correlation made by Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, 1997 • Many studies since then supporting or disputing solar/GCR - cloud correlation • Not independent - most use the same ISCCP satellite cloud dataset • No firm conclusion yet - requires more data - but, if there is an effect, it is likely to be restricted to certain regions of globe and at certain altitudes & conditions • •Eg. correlation (>90% sig.) of low cloud amount and solar UV/GCR,1984-2004:

24. • Aerosol chamber + state-of-the-art analyzing instruments in CERN PS beamline • Laboratory expts. under precisely controlled conditions (T, trace gases, aerosols, ions) • Study aerosol nucleation & growth; and cloud droplet & ice particle microphysics

25. Orbiting Carbon Observatory Launched July 2

26. Satellites in “A-Train” • Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), which launched July 2, will be the A-Train's sixth member. Its mission is to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide • Information on aerosols and clouds from CALIPSO and CloudSat, we can use that information to estimate the amount of absorption of sunlight by these airborne particles, which is something we cannot currently do, • MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), an instrument on the Aqua satellite, tracks cloud cover. AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder), another Aqua instrument, measures air temperature and the amount of water content in the atmosphere. To accurately measure carbon dioxide

27. Poincare’ (1854-1912) • New Methods of Celestial Mechanics, 1892

28. Poincare’ (1854-1912) • New Methods of Celestial Mechanics, 1892 • Nonlinear dynamical equations are subject to

29. Poincare’ (1854-1912) • New Methods of Celestial Mechanics, 1892 • Nonlinear dynamical equations are subject to • Sensitivity to initial conditions

30. Poincare’ (1854-1912) • New Methods of Celestial Mechanics, 1892 • Nonlinear dynamical equations are subject to • Sensitivity to initial conditions • Unpredictably chaotic outcomes

33. Ocean Levels

34. Summary and Forecast • Climate has continually varied in the past, and the causes are not well understood - especially on the 100 year timescale relevant for today’s climate change

35. Summary and Forecast • Climate has continually varied in the past, and the causes are not well understood - especially on the 100 year timescale relevant for today’s climate change • Space satellites will show water vapor’s dominant role as a greenhouse gas

36. Summary and Forecast • Climate has continually varied in the past, and the causes are not well understood - especially on the 100 year timescale relevant for today’s climate change • Space satellites will show water vapor’s dominant role as a greenhouse gas • Strong evidence for solar-climate variability, but no established mechanism. A cosmic ray influence on clouds is a leading candidate. Research will confirm this mechanism in a controlled laboratory experiment; satellites can help our understanding

37. Summary and Forecast • Climate has continually varied in the past, and the causes are not well understood - especially on the 100 year timescale relevant for today’s climate change • Space satellites will show water vapor’s dominant role as a greenhouse gas • Strong evidence for solar-climate variability, but no established mechanism. A cosmic ray influence on clouds is a leading candidate. Research will confirm this mechanism in a controlled laboratory experiment; satellites can help our understanding • The question of whether - and to what extent - the climate is influenced by solar/cosmic ray variability remains central to our understanding of anthropogenic climate change

38. Summary and Forecast • Climate has continually varied in the past, and the causes are not well understood - especially on the 100 year timescale relevant for today’s climate change • Space satellites will show water vapor’s dominant role as a greenhouse gas • Strong evidence for solar-climate variability, but no established mechanism. A cosmic ray influence on clouds is a leading candidate. Research will confirm this mechanism in a controlled laboratory experiment; satellites can help our understanding • The question of whether - and to what extent - the climate is influenced by solar/cosmic ray variability remains central to our understanding of anthropogenic climate change • Crisis of conformity; Political Correctness will continue to be problematic