Heather Auld Adaptation and Impacts Research Division Environment Canada Toronto, Canada

1. Disaster Risk Reduction Under Current and Changing Climate Conditions:Important Roles for the NMHSs Heather Auld Adaptation and Impacts Research Division Environment Canada Toronto, Canada

2. Economic losses (2006 values) Insured losses (2006 values) Trend economic losses Trend insured losses Rising Disaster Losses Globally Great Natural Disasters Worldwide 1950 – 2006Economic and insured losses US $Billions Adaptation Deficit Year

3. Causes of Rising Natural Disasters Number of Disasters in EMDAT, 1900 – 2005 Increasing trends have been most dramatic for weather-related events Adaptation Deficit Global Trends in Frequency of Major Natural Disasters Biological Hydrometeorological Geological Source: EM-DAT : The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. http://www.em-dat.net, UCL - Brussels, Belgium

4. Disasters and the Growing “Adaptation Deficit” • Factors driving the “adaptation deficit”: • Developed/developing countries have different drivers • Increased wealth; More insured property; Greater populations • Poverty; Development in higher risk locations • Aging infrastructure; Sub-standard infrastructure • Urbanization – dependence on infrastructure services Nil or poor adaptation = Rising losses from hydro-meteorological hazards

5. Vulnerability is also linked to the Quality of the Environment Unhealthy ecosystems can exacerbate some hazards to the point that “by degrading forests, engineering rivers, filling in wetlands, and destabilizing the climate, we are unraveling the strands of a complex ecological safety net.” J. Abramovitz (2001)

6. Environmental Degradation and Disasters Trends in number of counties with mud and rock slides in Western China (1800-2000)

7. Encouraging Signs… Disaster Risk Management Because the costs of cleaning up and restoring communities after disasters is so high, some countries are closely looking as all aspects of disaster risk-management planning NMHSs have important products and services to contribute to disaster risk management.

8. Disaster/Emergency Management Systems Hazards: Emergency Planning RISK MANAGEMENT Hazards, Climatic design values Special forecasts; Risk guidance Forecasts & Warnings; improved Warning systems CRISES MANAGEMENT

9. Before the Disaster: Risk Management Proactive – Reducing Vulnerabilities: Forewarned is Forearmed • Mitigation/Prevention of Risks • Hydrometeorological information for Design & Planning • Learning from past failures and disasters • Preparedness • Emergency and risk reduction planning • Improving warning and emergency response systems

10. During and After the Disaster: Crises Management Reactive –Moving from Weather Prediction to Risk Prediction • Emergency Response • Timely and accurate weather warnings leading to action • Monitoring and detection of hazards • Recovery • Hazards risk guidance to rebuild communities

11. Before the Disaster: Risk Management Proactive– Reducing Vulnerabilities: Forewarned is forearmed • Reduction/Mitigation of Risks • Climatic and hydrological design values for codes & standards • Atmospheric and hydrological Hazards information • Monitoring; Detection of changing climate/weather extremes • Forensic studies--learning from disasters Emergency Preparedness • Hazards information for emergency and risk reduction planning • Science to identify the most significant events, impacts • Improved weather warning criteria; sensitive to responders • Vigilance; Warnings linked to “Impacts Thresholds”

12. Proactive Design: Extremes and Infrastructure Design Warnings are a last line of defense… after other prevention solutions, such as engineering design practices, are applied to reduce the risk of an event below an acceptable level. Ideally, infrastructure is designed for selected return period climate extremes …

13. Design Hourly Wind Speeds(km/hr) National Building Code of Canada and various CSA standards 50 year return period Design Wind Speeds (km/hr) Proactive: Climatic Design Information

14. Disasters, Warnings and Impacts Thresholds… Small Increases = Escalating Damages above Critical Thresholds “small increases in weather and climate extremes have the potential to bring large increases in damages to existing infrastructure”… beyond critical thresholds Climate Change could significantly impact infrastructure, depending on robustness of existing climatic design values

15. Quality of Structures and Weather Impacts Thresholds Some structure are more vulnerable than others: The quality of construction and maintenance of structures will strongly influence community vulnerability to hazards

16. Engineering codes and standards need updated climatic design values EM-DAT International Database – Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) Trends in Windstorm Disasters

17. 2090 2050 2090 ~ 75 mm 1985 2050 1985 80 year returnperiod 40 year return period GCM Projected Changes in 24-hour Return Period Rainfalls Projections of changes in average Canadian extreme 24-hour rainfall events that can be expected to recur once every 10, 20, 40, or 80 years.

18. Proactive Emergency Response Planning Although natural disasters are not always predictable, they are most often generally foreseeable … Planning for risks… Risk planning requires understanding offrequencies of hydrometeorological events and their expected changes (Hurricane Katrina damages)

19. This website presents background material and map data for atmospheric hazards in Ontario. It has been created by the Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, in cooperation with Emergency Management Ontario, to assist municipalities in conducting their hazard identification and risk assessments as required by Ontario's Emergency Management Act. www.hazards.ca What is it? What data is in it? How can I use it? Look for many places Look for a place by name This website is under continuous development.Please visit us again, often. Important Notices and Disclaimers

20. Ontario’s Emergency Management Act (Bill 148) • Part of assessment involves assessment of risks to weather hazards: • Fog Lightning • Heavy Rain Heavy Snow • Hurricanes Wind Storms • Extreme Heat/Cold Ice Storms • Drought Tornadoes • Extreme Air Quality Events Weather Hazard Risk Assessment

21. Hazard and Impact Risk Assessment (HIRA) Community Risk Assessment Grid Source: EMO, 2003

22. Severe Thunderstorms: Hail

23. Extreme Snowfall Days/Year Exceeding 25cm (1971-2000)

24. Observed Tornadoes in Southern Ontario 1981-2003

25. Atmospheric Hazards - Selection Results Map: .Ontario South Boreal (2300) Selected 586 places on this map Hail Frequency in Ontario between 0.50 and 2.00 # Days/Year andTornado Frequency in Ontario between 0.80 and 2.40 # Events/Year • Moderate-High Hail Frequencies • AND • Moderate-High Tornado Frequencies Parameters:

26. Health issues: Heat Waves and Air Quality Ozone & Hot Days Ontario MOE, 2004

27. Projected Number of“Extreme Heat Alert”Daysfrom the Hottest Weather Type 2050s, 2080s ADAPTATION: Heat Alert and Response systems help protect vulnerable populations

28. During and After the Disaster: Crises Management • Reactive – During and After the Disaster • Moving from Weather Prediction to Risk Prediction • Warnings Seek Actions • Emergency Response • (Special) Forecast support for emergency response • Consideration of cumulative and sequential events • Vigilance or Tiered Warning systems – link to impacts • Timely and accurate weather warnings; dissemination • Warnings that imply actions • Recovery • Forecast support • Hazards risk guidance to rebuild communities

29. Failures of Early Warning Programs • failure of forecasting • ignorance of prevailing vulnerability • failure to communicate threat accurately or in sufficient time • failure by the recipients to understand or believe the warning or to take suitable action.

30. Planning Effective Early Warning Systems The success of a Warning is measured by what actions people take. • Warnings need terminology relevant to the decision-maker and messages that suggest appropriate actions. • People are more likely to heed and act upon warnings when they have been educated about their risks and have prepared warning-reaction plans.

31. Warnings and Clear Communications Warnings need to have a meaning that is shared between those who issue the forecasts and the decision-makers that they are intended to inform. This requires an appreciation of local and indigenous knowledge (e.g. Bangladesh Warning System). Some NMHS are investing in research to better translate the intensity of forecast meteorological parameters into impacts and risk levels for communities.

32. Warning Thresholds and Vigilance: Often Linked to Infrastructure Failure Thresholds Work is needed to identify the most dangerous impacts, the contribution of cumulative and sequential events to risks and thresholds for failures/disaster. Information on thresholds for infrastructure failure could significantly contribute to weather and flood warning criteria… environmental prediction

33. Vigilance… Reducing the Impacts of Hazards “meteorological vigilance” (e.g. weather watch map systems). Colour-coded map, with each region assigned a colour according to the seriousness of the predicted risk (vulnerability) Green, yellow, orange, red, Highlights the most dangerous events…. beginning to integrate vulnerability analysis. China (CMA): colour coded warnings for 11 extreme weather conditions – blue, yellow, orange,red,black

34. Cumulative + Sequential Hazards = Growing Risk Warning systems need to include suddenevents and “creeping” and combination hazards… Sequential or cumulative events impact vulnerability and need to be considered in monitoring and Warnings. e.g. antecedent rainfall and increasing risks from storm rainfall e.g. drought

35. The Special Needs of Emergency Responders… Lead times are very important … for the activation of emergency response plans and to identify the most significant risks. e.g. UK Met Office Early Alerts • Escalating messages for the public • Special needs, advance warnings for emergency responders (includes training)?

36. RECOVERY from the DISASTER: REBUILD and REDUCE VULNERABILITIES Forecast and Warning support, including additional information to protect vulnerable populations Hazards risk guidance for rebuilding communities Forensics studies (science) -in partnership with others

37. Learning from Failures… Value of Forensic Studies “forensic investigations” of high impact events yield valuable insights (continuous improvement) into: • critical thresholds for disasters and infrastructure failure • improvements to emergency response plans • improved and new products, services

38. Climate Change and Disaster Management

39. Climate Change and Disasters The global cost of natural disasters may exceed $300 billion annually by the year 2050 if the likely impact of climate change is not countered with aggressive disaster reduction measures… Disaster risk reduction…a “no regrets” approach that reduces vulnerability to near-term hazards today will become an even more effective strategy for reducing future risks.

40. The Future… Disaster Management UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) The aim of the ISDR is to mobilize governments, UN agencies, regional bodies, the private sector and civil society to unite efforts in building resilient societies by developing a culture of prevention and preparedness.

41. WMO and Disaster Management Target: Half the loss of life associated with natural disasters (hydro-meteorological) over the next 15 years Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme WMO and national meteorological/hydrological services have the capability to develop and deliver critical products and services to the disaster risk management decision process.

42. Successful Disaster Management:Risk and Crises Management • Risk Management: Proactive • Climatic & hydrological design information • Hazards for emergency management planning • Development of vigilance warning systems • Crises Management: Reactive • Warnings & emergency response • Environmental prediction • Hazards and risk information to rebuild

43. T h a n k Y o u