Understanding International Security and Conflict

1. WHAT IS “SECURITY”; WHAT IS CONFLICT? Why does “intl.” security matter to us?... Why is the big picture anything we should worry about? What is “world peace”? Maybe about more than war. Should we always prefer peace? “War isn’t the answer” WHAT IS WAR (Some definitions) Measurement matters… number of people killed over time ranges from between roughly 150 million to over 1 billion, with the key variation being whether internal war by states is counted. Defn’s also matter because they trigger different intl. responses Mingst et al.: War is deliberate, organized, and undertaken by an identifiable political authority (ISIS counts, but a loan terrorist does not). Also, for many scholars, two or more sides must have enough capacity to inflict severe damage. Presently, scholars use 1000K deaths in a year to “count” as war. Genocide and state-organized terrorism do not meet the “two sides” agreement.

2. TYPES OF WAR (Some definitions) Hegemonic war – conflict among two or more great powers Total war vs. limited war. WMD’s are a game changer. Conventional vs. unconventional war: The former has armies and outcomes (i.e., capture the capital and national leader, you win), while the latter doesn’t. Unconvenational war is often asymmetric Think ISIS… Civil wars and coup d’ états (coups). The former are often fought for greater autonomy or secession Guerilla/insurgencies wars and counterinsurgencies Terrorism (low intensity, non-state violence against civilians for a political purpose). It has become more leathal Genocide vs. mass civilian deaths caused by states (the latter is Preemptive war (can be legal as an extension of self defense) vs. preventative (not legal without Sec. Council approval)

23. THE CAUSES OF WAR: INDIVIDUALS? Are we innately violent? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtCgquOsXeo A key fact from the previous charts: War has been a constant Another key fact in the same charts: Most people aren’t fighting most of the time The western tradition holds that humans are evil: Natural law, Hobbes, James Madison Humans and the curse of the thumb. Most mammals do not kill each other, but Chimpanzees and humans do quite a lot of this (But, but, but… the dual human impulses) More biological evidence that we are born to be violent: Gender, age, and fighting… The share of young males is a key factor in which states fight Why do we things in groups that we wouldn’t do as individuals ? Primordialism: Identity /Tribal instincts Nationalism and elite mobilization of identity Misperceptions by leaders lead to war What kinds of problems do all leaders have that are related to the start of war? Wishful thinking, attribution error, in-group bias

24. STATE AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURES Place matters: Landlocked; # of dyads Why might it be better to sometimes let wars wage until settlement? Notice where most conflict in the world is today. Resources matter: Three in particular: % of unemployed young males; Presence of lootable assets Karl Marx vs. Thomas Friedman: Dell theory of conflict (advanced capitalism and war) Regime types and war The democratic peace thesis – Immanuel Kant (liberalism)… Actually it turns out that democracies are pretty violent Checks and balances help; group think/ narcissism vary by selectorate Information flow is better in free societies: Democracies don’t start wars they lose Professionalization of the military, its culture, and SOPs (US vs Europe) Non democracies vary in accountability to the selectorate: One party oligarchies much safer than most new democracies or tyrant-led Diversionary war – more likely in non-democsbc of information control Culture matters: Nationalism, and war. American except. Vs. Canada. What does constructivism suggest about this (i.e., cultures change)?

25. THE CAUSES OF WAR: THE INTL. SYSTEM (Realism) Key fact: The members of the UN Security Council have been involved in a lot more wars than other states (except for China up to the present) Key fact: Some distributions of power in the intl system cause more conflict than others… multipolar systems with complex alliances vs. unipolar systems Cycle theories: human memory and the nature of empire/hegemony (power transition theory). Anarchy, self-help, the security dilemma: still encourages war Even with modern norms, collective security still doesn’t work well The limits of international institutions are still severe

26. HOW IS WAR CHANGING? SOME OF THE BIG QUESTIONS SOCIAL SCIENTISTS ARE LOOKING AT There are a lot fewer wars about resources than there used to be…why is this so (population/demographic changes, new norms, the contact thesis)? Is this pattern likely to persist? Will the proliferation of nuclear weapons change everything? How could changes in war technology (drones, AI) change war? For example what a civilian is? There seem to be more civil wars and wars over nationalism and religion lately. Why? (Globalization) Are wars over ideology gone or just awaiting competition among multiple hegemons to heat up again? Can we expect more wars in the future in the name of humanity (R2P)? Biosphere stress (think global warming) may cause more conflict over time