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Population Statistics: Forward Research Plan

Population Statistics: Forward Research Plan . Alison Whitworth April 2013. Work strands – Population estimates. Migration International emigration (LA) Internal migration E- borders Quality assurance for population estimates Conceptual framework. International emigration.

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Population Statistics: Forward Research Plan

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  1. Population Statistics: Forward Research Plan Alison Whitworth April 2013

  2. Work strands – Population estimates • Migration • International emigration (LA) • Internal migration • E- borders • Quality assurance for population estimates • Conceptual framework

  3. International emigration • Review of model • Variable selection • Administrative sources • Geographical effects • Cannot use improved methods as adopted for immigration

  4. Internal migration • Lessons learnt from reconciliation with Census data • Work to assess the improved student adjustment

  5. E-borders Potential uses for migration estimates • Improved understanding of migration patterns: • Analysis of travel histories • Improving IPS estimates through: • Enhanced weighting of IPS • Efficiency of IPS sampling • Targeted sampling

  6. Quality assurance • Previous quality work: • Plausibility ranges • Measures of uncertainty • Successful 2011 Census QA • Systematic mechanism for making adjustments to implausible estimates

  7. Conceptual framework

  8. Data Censuses, Surveys, Administrative Registers Postcodes, address registers, centroids, boundaries Location i Countries, Regions, Local Authority Districts, Wards Concepts Entries between t-n and t Births International moves Internal (within UK) moves Actual population at time t Usual residents Migrants Temporary workers Business travellers Visitors Exits between t-n and t Deaths International moves Internal (within UK) moves Characteristics Age, Sex, Other Characteristics Age, Sex, Other Characteristics Age, Sex, Other Processing and estimation Outputs

  9. Work strands – Other outputs • Marital status estimates • Population estimates by ethnic group • Estimates of the very old • Small area population estimates

  10. Questions • Have we got this right? • Thoughts/suggestions on work strands mentioned? • Other areas of research we should consider?

  11. Research plan • Migration • International emigration (LA) • Internal migration • E- borders • Quality assurance for population estimates • Conceptual framework • Marital status estimates • Population estimates by ethnic group • Estimates of the very old • Small area population estimates

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