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Analysis of Common and Independent Suit Designs

Analysis of Common and Independent Suit Designs. Richard Rhodes. Background. Vision for Space Exploration Lower Earth Orbit (LEO) for 2014 Man on the moon by 2020 Space Suit Needs Suit for Launch, Entry, and Abort (LEA) Light suit that is mobile and comfortable

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Analysis of Common and Independent Suit Designs

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  1. Analysis of Common and Independent Suit Designs Richard Rhodes

  2. Background • Vision for Space Exploration • Lower Earth Orbit (LEO) for 2014 • Man on the moon by 2020 • Space Suit Needs • Suit for Launch, Entry, and Abort (LEA) • Light suit that is mobile and comfortable • Suit for microgravity and surface extravehicular activities (EVA) • Life support, thermal regulation, control, and surface mobility LEA Development LEA production and operations EVA production and operations EVA Development 2024 2030 2023 ….. 2022 2020 2021 2013 2012 2011 2018 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2008

  3. Opportunity to Reduce Lifecycle Costs • Opportunity • Common Components - Any components that are reused or shared between the two suits. Provides benefits to development, production, and operations • Affects of Commonality on Development • Penalty of common development on LEA suit • Penalty of component integration on EVA suit Penalty of Common Development (25%) 50% Common Independent Cost Penalty of Common Integration (10%) Unique A Unique B

  4. Opportunity to Reduce Lifecycle Costs • Affects of Commonality on Production • Penalty of excess capability (10%) • Economies of scale • Learning curve • Operations Cost • Reduced 30%

  5. Political Uncertainty • Resources could be pulled away from exploration • Space Shuttle Extension (0, 2, 4 year extensions) • 109th Congress voted on NASA programs 83 times, of those 47 failed (56%) same percentage is used for possibility of shuttle not being extended • Exponential curve for extension of 2 and 4 years • International Space Station Extension/Exploration Cancellation (0, 2, 14 year extension) • Vision for space exploration passed by 81%, last ISS funding bill passed by 61%. Possibility of ISS extension/Exploration cancellation is in between • Exponential curve for extension of 2 and 14 years

  6. Decision Tree Lifecycle Cost

  7. Decision Tree Cost/Suit

  8. Lattice Development • Uncertainty • Demand of EVA suits • Assumptions • Demand would start at 32 per year with no expected growth • EVA suits have a benefit of $2.5 million, LEA of $640,000 • Development of EVA suits will begin at the end of year 5 • Common LEA suits are more expensive to produce, but EVA suits have cheaper fixed costs and production costs

  9. Lattice Development Options • Contractor Options • Opt out of EVA suit production • To begin production of EVA suit early • Independent • NPV=-$82million • Common • NPV=-$26million

  10. Option to Start EVA Production Early • Independent • NPV = -$24 million • Value = $58 million • Common • NPV = -$12 million • Value =$15 million

  11. Option to Opt out of EVA Production • The VARG for the option to opt out is biased against the Common option because the VARG only covers the first 6 years and you do not begin getting benefits of commonality until year 6

  12. Option to Start EVA Production Early • Independent • NPV = -$82 million • Benefit = $0 • Common • NPV = -$17 million • Benefit = $10 million

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