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Market forecasts and business case modeling for 3G and wireless services in Europe

Dimitris V AROUTAS University of Athens, GR. Giovanni G ASBARONNE. Dimitris K ATSIANIS University of Athens, GR. Evangelos K ARATHANOS University of Athens, GR. Market forecasts and business case modeling for 3G and wireless services in Europe.

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Market forecasts and business case modeling for 3G and wireless services in Europe

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  1. Dimitris VAROUTAS University of Athens, GR Giovanni GASBARONNE Dimitris KATSIANIS University of Athens, GR Evangelos KARATHANOS University of Athens, GR Market forecasts and business case modeling for 3G and wireless services in Europe Report from the 4th Workshop on Telecommunications Technoeconomics

  2. The challenge

  3. W- Next generation technologies

  4. Technoeconomic Methodologies and Tools

  5. IST-TONIC Methodology

  6. Marketing Forecasting Model

  7. The results

  8. Market Sizing: demand forecast

  9. 3G financial perspectives in Europe D. Katsianis et al, “The financial perspective of the mobile networks in Europe”, IEEE Personal Commun. Mag., Dec. 2001 Vol 8, No 6, pp 58-64.

  10. NPV- IRR for L-arge and S-mall European countries

  11. Α Case study in Greece

  12. Current Situation • 3 + 1 GSM-GPRS Operators • Almost equal market shares for the first 3 Op. • 3 UMTS licensees • 147Meuros for 20 years • 60% in the beginning • And 4 equal installments • 25% of the population up to 2003 (All Athens 2004 Olympic sites until June 2004) • 50% before Dec 2006 • 10 years study period 2003-2012

  13. Market Evolutionpopulation ~ 11Milion

  14. Market Forecast (1)

  15. Market Forecast (2)Penetration Forecast for different Systems

  16. Market Forecast (3)Mobile Subscriber Penetration Forecast

  17. Financial Results

  18. Financial Results Investments, Revenues, Cash Balance

  19. Information Sources • IST-TONIC websitehttp://www-nrc.nokia.com/tonic/ • Technoeconomic Workshop website • http://www-nrc.nokia.com/tonic/workshop/index.html • Methodologies • G. Gasbarrone, “Beyond third generation wireless communications The European market Business Case modelling”, 4th Workshop on Telecommunications Techno-Economics, Rennes – France, 14-15 May 2002 • http://www-nrc.nokia.com/tonic/ • Other business cases • D. Katsianis et al, “The financial perspective of the mobile networks in Europe”, IEEE Personal Commun. Mag., Dec. 2001 Vol 8, No 6, pp 58-64. • Th. Monath et al, “Economics of Ethernet based access networks for broadband IP services”, ISSLS 2002, 14 –17 April, 2002, Seoul • Books • L.A. Ims, “Broadband Access Networks Introduction strategies and techno-economic evaluation, Telecommunications Technology And Applications Series, Chapman & Hall 1998, ISBN 0 412 828200 • Forecasts • K. Stordahl, L. Rand, "Long term forecasts for broadband demand", Telektronikk, 95, (2/3), 1999.

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