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Chapter 13

Chapter 13. Capital Budgeting: Decision Criteria. Capital Budgeting: An Overview. Search for investment opportunities . This process will obviously vary among firms and industries. Estimate all cash flows for each project .

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Chapter 13

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  1. Chapter 13 Capital Budgeting: Decision Criteria

  2. Capital Budgeting: An Overview • Search for investment opportunities. This process will obviously vary among firms and industries. • Estimate all cash flows for each project. • Evaluate the cash flows. a) Payback period. b) Net Present Value. c) Internal Rate of Return. d) Modified Internal rate of Return. • Make the accept/reject decision. • Independent projects: Accept/reject decision for a project is not affected by the accept/reject decisions of other projects. • Mutually exclusive projects: Selection of one alternative precludes another alternative. • Periodically reevaluate past investment decisions.

  3. Estimating Incremental Cash Flows • Only changes in after-tax cash flows that would occur if the project is accepted versus what they would be if the project is rejected are relevant. • Initial Outlay: Includes purchase price of the asset, shipping and installation, after-tax sale of asset to be replaced if applicable, additional required investments in net working capital (e.g., increases in accounts receivable and inventory less any spontaneous increases in accounts payable and accruals), plus any other cash flows necessary to put the asset in working order.

  4. Differential Cash Flows Over the Project’s Life: Change in revenue - Change in operating expenses = Change in operating income before taxes - Change in taxes = Change in operating income after taxes + Change in depreciation = Differential cash flow

  5. Note: Interest expenses are excluded when calculating differential cash flow. Instead, they are accounted for in the discount rate used to evaluate projects. • Terminal Cash Flow: Includes after-tax salvage value of the asset, recapture of nonexpense outlays that occurred at the asset’s initiation (e.g., net working capital investments), plus any other cash flows associated with project termination.

  6. Capital Budgeting Evaluation Techniques • NPV • IRR • MIRR • Profitability Index • Payback • Discounted payback

  7. Steps in Capital Budgeting • Estimate cash flows (inflows & outflows). • Assess risk of cash flows. • Determine r = WACC for project. • Evaluate cash flows.

  8. Independent versus Mutually Exclusive Projects • Projects are: • independent, if the cash flows of one are unaffected by the acceptance of the other. • mutually exclusive, if the cash flows of one can be adversely impacted by the acceptance of the other.

  9. 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 10% 10% S’s CFs: L’s CFs: -100.00 -100.00 70 10 60 50 20 80 Cash Flows for Franchise L and Franchise S

  10. N CFt Σ NPV = (1 + r)t t = 0 Cost often is CF0 and is negative. N CFt Σ - CF0 NPV = (1 + r)t t = 1 NPV: Sum of the PVs of all cash flows.

  11. 0 1 2 3 10% L’s CFs: -100.00 10 60 80 9.09 49.59 60.11 18.79 = NPVL NPVS = $19.98. What’s Franchise L’s NPV?

  12. -100 10 60 80 10 CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3 I/YR NPV = 18.78 = NPVL Calculator Solution: Enter values in CFLO register for L.

  13. Rationale for the NPV Method • NPV = PV inflows – Cost • This is net gain in wealth, so accept project if NPV > 0. • Choose between mutually exclusive projects on basis of higher NPV. Adds most value.

  14. Using NPV method, which franchise(s) should be accepted? • If Franchise S and L are mutually exclusive, accept S because NPVs > NPVL . • If S & L are independent, accept both; NPV > 0.

  15. 0 1 2 3 CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3 Cost Inflows Internal Rate of Return: IRR IRR is the discount rate that forces PV inflows = cost. This is the same as forcing NPV = 0.

  16. N CFt Σ = NPV (1 + r)t t = 0 IRR: Enter NPV = 0, solve for IRR. N CFt Σ = 0 = 0 (1 + IRR)t t = 0 NPV: Enter r, solve for NPV.

  17. 0 1 2 3 IRR = ? -100.00 10 60 80 PV1 PV2 PV3 Enter CFs in CFLO, then press IRR: IRRL = 18.13%. IRRS = 23.56%. 0 = NPV What’s Franchise L’s IRR?

  18. 0 1 2 3 -100 40 40 40 INPUTS 3 -100 40 0 9.70% N I/YR PV PMT FV OUTPUT Or, with CFLO, enter CFs and press IRR = 9.70%. Find IRR if CFs are constant:

  19. Rationale for the IRR Method • If IRR > WACC, then the project’s rate of return is greater than its cost-- some return is left over to boost stockholders’ returns. • Example: WACC = 10%, IRR = 15%. • So this project adds extra return to shareholders.

  20. Decisions on Projects S and L per IRR • If S and L are independent, accept both: IRRS > r and IRRL > r. • If S and L are mutually exclusive, accept S because IRRS > IRRL .

  21. Construct NPV Profiles • Enter CFs in CFLO and find NPVL and NPVS at different discount rates:

  22. L Crossover Point = 8.7% S IRRS = 23.6% IRRL = 18.1% NPV Profile

  23. NPV ($) IRR > r and NPV > 0 Accept. r > IRR and NPV < 0. Reject. r (%) IRR NPV and IRR: No conflict for independent projects.

  24. NPV r < 8.7: NPVL> NPVS , IRRS > IRRL CONFLICT L r > 8.7: NPVS> NPVL , IRRS > IRRL NO CONFLICT IRRS S % 8.7 IRRL Mutually Exclusive Projects

  25. To Find the Crossover Rate • Find cash flow differences between the projects. See data at beginning of the case. • Enter these differences in CFLO register, then press IRR. Crossover rate = 8.68%, rounded to 8.7%. • Can subtract S from L or vice versa, but easier to have first CF negative. • If profiles don’t cross, one project dominates the other.

  26. Two Reasons NPV Profiles Cross • Size (scale) differences. Smaller project frees up funds at t = 0 for investment. The higher the opportunity cost, the more valuable these funds, so high r favors small projects. • Timing differences. Project with faster payback provides more CF in early years for reinvestment. If r is high, early CF especially good, NPVS > NPVL.

  27. Reinvestment Rate Assumptions • NPV assumes reinvest at r (opportunity cost of capital). • IRR assumes reinvest at IRR. • Reinvest at opportunity cost, r, is more realistic, so NPV method is best. NPV should be used to choose between mutually exclusive projects.

  28. Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) • MIRR is the discount rate which causes the PV of a project’s terminal value (TV) to equal the PV of costs. • TV is found by compounding inflows at WACC. • Thus, MIRR assumes cash inflows are reinvested at WACC.

  29. 0 1 2 3 10% -100.0 10.0 60.0 80.0 10% 66.0 12.1 10% 158.1 -100.0 TV inflows PV outflows MIRR for Franchise L: First, find PV and TV (r = 10%)

  30. 0 1 2 3 MIRR = 16.5% -100.0 158.1 PV outflows TV inflows $158.1 (1+MIRRL)3 $100 = MIRRL = 16.5% Second, find discount rate that equates PV and TV

  31. To find TV with 12B: Step 1, find PV of Inflows • First, enter cash inflows in CFLO register: • CF0 = 0, CF1 = 10, CF2 = 60, CF3 = 80 • Second, enter I/YR = 10. • Third, find PV of inflows: • Press NPV = 118.78

  32. Step 2, find TV of inflows. • Enter PV = -118.78, N = 3, I/YR = 10, PMT = 0. • Press FV = 158.10 = FV of inflows.

  33. Step 3, find PV of outflows. • For this problem, there is only one outflow, CF0 = -100, so the PV of outflows is -100. • For other problems there may be negative cash flows for several years, and you must find the present value for all negative cash flows.

  34. Step 4, find “IRR” of TV of inflows and PV of outflows. • Enter FV = 158.10, PV = -100, PMT = 0, N = 3. • Press I/YR = 16.50% = MIRR.

  35. Why use MIRR versus IRR? • MIRR correctly assumes reinvestment at opportunity cost = WACC. MIRR also avoids the problem of multiple IRRs. • Managers like rate of return comparisons, and MIRR is better for this than IRR.

  36. Normal vs. Nonnormal Cash Flows • Normal Cash Flow Project: • Cost (negative CF) followed by a series of positive cash inflows. • One change of signs. • Nonnormal Cash Flow Project: • Two or more changes of signs. • Most common: Cost (negative CF), then string of positive CFs, then cost to close project. • For example, nuclear power plant or strip mine.

  37. Inflow (+) or Outflow (-) in Year

  38. 0 1 2 r = 10% -800 5,000 -5,000 Enter CFs in CFLO, enter I/YR = 10. NPV = -386.78 IRR = ERROR. Why? Pavilion Project: NPV and IRR?

  39. NPV Profile NPV IRR2 = 400% 450 0 r 100 400 IRR1 = 25% -800 Nonnormal CFs--two sign changes, two IRRs.

  40. Logic of Multiple IRRs • At very low discount rates, the PV of CF2 is large & negative, so NPV < 0. • At very high discount rates, the PV of both CF1 and CF2 are low, so CF0 dominates and again NPV < 0. • In between, the discount rate hits CF2 harder than CF1, so NPV > 0. • Result: 2 IRRs.

  41. Finding Multiple IRRs with Calculator 1. Enter CFs as before. 2. Enter a “guess” as to IRR by storing the guess. Try 10%: 10 STO IRR = 25% = lower IRR (See next slide for upper IRR)

  42. Finding Upper IRR with Calculator Now guess large IRR, say, 200: 200 STO IRR = 400% = upper IRR

  43. 0 1 2 -800,000 5,000,000 -5,000,000 PV outflows @ 10% = -4,932,231.40. TV inflows @ 10% = 5,500,000.00. MIRR = 5.6% When there are nonnormal CFs and more than one IRR, use MIRR:

  44. Accept Project P? • NO. Reject because MIRR = 5.6% < r = 10%. • Also, if MIRR < r, NPV will be negative: NPV = -$386,777.

  45. Profitability Index • The profitability index (PI) is the present value of future cash flows divided by the initial cost. • It measures the “bang for the buck.”

  46. Project L: 0 1 2 3 10% 10 60 80 9.09 49.59 60.11 118.79 Franchise L’s PV of Future Cash Flows

  47. PV future CF $118.79 PIL = = Initial Cost $100 PIL = 1.1879 PIS = 1.1998 Franchise L’s Profitability Index

  48. What is the payback period? • The number of years required to recover a project’s cost, • or how long does it take to get the business’s money back?

  49. 2.4 0 1 2 3 CFt -100 10 60 80 -30 Cumulative -100 -90 0 50 2 + 30/80 = 2.375 years PaybackL = Payback for Franchise L

  50. 1.6 0 1 2 3 CFt -100 70 50 20 Cumulative -100 20 40 -30 0 1 + 30/50 = 1.6 years PaybackS = Payback for Franchise S

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