CHFP Objectives

1. CHFP Objectives • Provide baseline assessment of seasonal prediction capabilities using the best available models and data for initialization • Provide experimental framework for focused research on how various components of the climate system interact and affect one another • Provide a test bed for evaluating IPCC class models in seasonal prediction • Provide framework for assessing current and planned observing systems • Integrate process studies/field campaigns into model improvements

2. Seasonal Prediction 1st WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop • International, multi-model experiment incorporating all • elements of the climate system Kirtman and Pirani (2009) Maximum predictability not yet achieved

3. Experiment Protocol • Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization of all the Components of Climate System • Role for each of core WCRP projects • Key: No future information after initialization • Seven Month Lead Ensemble (10 member) Fully Interactive Predictions of the Climate System • Predictions Initialized Four Times per Year for Each Year 1979- • Some Groups Extend to Decadal (JSC crosscut) • Agreed upon output (variables, frequency, …) • International Multi-Institution Participation • Diagnostic sub-projects • will involve extensive interactions among WCRP project panels

4. Status Several groups “done” with baseline. Data needs to be transferred to servers!!! at CIMA, APCC ENSEMBLES (All will be linked from CHFP website) Participating Groups • EU ENSEMBLES • APCC • NOAA-NCEP • NOAA-GFDL • NASA-GMAO • COLA-UMiami-NCAR • BMRC • JMA • CCCma • CPTEC • IRI

5. Significant role for land-atmosphere coupling in seasonal predictability GLACE-2 Goal of determining prediction skill associated with accurate initialization of land surface states Links across WCRP • Coordinated set of experiments involving 12 models • Twin experiments using realistic/unrealistic land initialization • Difference indicates skill due to land-atmosphere coupling • Complements CHFP protocol (no future information included) • Data available from NASA GSFC

6. Additional predictability likely associated with stratospheric dynamics Stratosphere resolving HFP Goal of quantifying skill gained initializing and resolving stratosphere in seasonal forecast systems Links across WCRP • Parallel hindcasts from stratosphere resolving and • non-resolving models • Action from WGSIP-12: Endorse as subproject of CHFP • SPARC to recommend diagnostics

7. Several areas of potential collaboration: • CHFP protocol encourages interactive ice models: additional • experiments with diagnostics for cryosphere • Sea ice prediction and initialization • Spring snow melt into soil moisture and influence on spring • temperature anomalies • Proposal: WGSIP-CliC Experimental Protocol Team • WGSIP: Doblas-Reyes, DeWitt??? • CliC:?? Links across WCRP Explore seasonal predictability associated with snow and sea ice

8. Links across WMO Several areas of potential collaboration: • CHFP protocol encourages interactive ice models: additional • experiments with diagnostics for cryosphere • Sea ice prediction and initialization • Spring snow melt into soil moisture and influence on spring • temperature anomalies (with GEWEX: proposal being • developed) Potential for coordinated, ISO hindcast experiments Explore seasonal predictability associated with snow and sea ice

9. Decadal Predictions CMIP5 Protocol • CMIP-WGCM-WGSIP group to oversee this framework • WGSIP is active participant in upcoming CLIVAR AIP • workshop on ocean initialization for decadal predictions

10. Applications Working Directly with Users CHFP Workshop (WGSIP/CIMA) • Objective: • Increase visibility of CHFP to Latin American scientists • Increase regional capacity through training on the use of CHFP data for applications • August 2010 – University of Buenos Aires • 2 weeks of lectures (a.m.) & computing laboratory (p.m.) • 50-70 participants: • Students or young scientists from all the countries in Latin America and the Caribbean • Interest from IRI and CPTEC -- will likely participate in the content design and lecture work

11. CHFP 3. Issue recommendations for CHFP participants on how to upload new versions of data or replace/disable old versions. 4. Each CHFP contributing group should provide a contact person to the data servers for technical issues. 5. Determine whether there will be a common registration approach for accessing CHFP data to acquire information on the use and dissemination of the CHFP data. Need to give guidelines on the CHFP website on how to acknowledge the data origin. Circulate a draft data policy to WGSIP for endorsement. 6. Circulate proposal for course on the CHFP, seasonal prediction and applications that is being organized by CIMA in Buenos Aires in March 2010 for endorsement by WGSIP (C. Vera). 7. Confirm whether groups contributing CHFP data to the APCC server can send a wider list of variables including metadata than those outlined in the APCC proposal (W.-J. Lee). 8. Develop interactions with CLIVAR regional panels to develop CHFP diagnostic sub projects. • Develop a clearing-house of applications-relevant tools, scripts, etc. for evaluating CHFP datasets (A. Pirani, A. Morse). These Actions Need to Be Revised?