National Integrated Drought Information System – NIDIS December 1, 2011 – Lake Lanier Resort

1. Current Drought Impacts and Mitigation Options for the Agriculture Sector Brenda V. Ortiz Assistant Professor Department of Agronomy and Soils Auburn University National Integrated Drought Information System – NIDIS December 1, 2011 – Lake Lanier Resort

2. Drought conditions were prone during the summer months in the Southeast Animation from October 2011 back to March 2011

3. Row Crops Agricultural Statistics in Alabama and Georgia by November 2011 27 % of crops in poor and very poor conditions Source: NASS- USDA 2011 winter wheat had a record yield because it received enough rainfall during the winter and very early spring Current Drought Impacts and Mitigation Options for the Agriculture Sector – NIDIS, December 1, 2011

4. 2011 Drought Impact on Row Crops production in Alabama and Georgia Peanut Crop Situation – Data from Georgia • Delayed planting, especially non-irrigated acreage. Less than 70% by May 31 when should be 95%+ • Delayed emergence, especially in non-irrigated fields. • Highly reduced plant stands • Areas re-planted, some as late as early July, too late to plant peanut. • Above normal irrigation amounts. • Irrigation usage for germination and trigger plant emergence • Many producers had to irrigate just to germinate seed. • Some producers irrigated as much as 16-20 inches at about $12.00 per acre-inch • Excessive heat delayed fruit set and maturity. • Temps >>> 104 oF (40 oC) will cause pollen sterility. Temp. of 130 - 140 oF at mid afternoon were measured between rows of non-lapped peanut. • Fruit set was severely delayed and dramatically reduced. • Delay reaching physiological maturity before cold temps in the late fall caused a cessation of maturity, resulting in unrealized yield loss (300 - 500 lbs/acre or more???). Current Drought Impacts and Mitigation Options for the Agriculture Sector – NIDIS, December 1, 2011

5. 2011 Drought Impact on Row Crops production in Alabama and Georgia Peanut Crop Situation – Data from Georgia • 5) Higher incidence of calcium deficiency symptoms ("pops" and/or pod disease). Lack of moisture in top 3" of soil resulted in inability of Ca to move (direct diffusion) into the developing fruit. • 6) Excessive heat resulted in the "white mold" disease. • 7) Increased number of abandoned fields that due to extremely low yield potential. • Field with zero yield potential • On farm trials where the crop insurance adjuster estimated at 52 lbs/acre (~3,200 lbs/acre ) • Three of the six non-irrigated on-farm trials had to be abandoned. • 8) Decrease in the use of fungicide to control diseases - the only "positive" to the drought. • NOTE: • Growers with irrigation ended up making some of the highest yields they've ever made! • Grower without irrigation had some of the lowest yields they've ever made. Current Drought Impacts and Mitigation Options for the Agriculture Sector – NIDIS, December 1, 2011

6. 2011 Drought Impact on Row Crops production in Alabama and Georgia Cotton Crop Situation – Data from Alabama • Slow crop growth early in the season due to cool temperatures in June and drought • Many fields completely missed the tope crop reason why there were several 1 bale fields • 3) Increase of Corynespora leaf disease (in Baldwin County caused leaf defoliation) • -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  • SE AL: Very low yields to zero yield because of extreme drought and heat • SW AL: Decent year – Historic higher yield due to Gulf moisture during the growing season • Central AL: Good yield where it rained / Near disaster where the drought conditions prevailed • Corridor along I-85  3 major rain/storm events ~ late July and early August 2 bale cotton. In that area, even where the drought was so bad, many farmers made a bale/acre • North AL: Northeast AL around Cherokee County had a lot of 2+ bale cotton. Current Drought Impacts and Mitigation Options for the Agriculture Sector – NIDIS, December 1, 2011

7. 2011 Drought Impact on Row Crops production in Alabama and Georgia Corn Crop Situation – Data from Alabama • Slow crop growth early in the season due to drought • Plants do not respond to top dress nitrogen application due to drought. • Above normal irrigation amounts. • Because of irrigation used early in the season, some farmers did not have enough water to irrigate corn during the period of high water demand (tasseling/grain filling – June) • Excessive heat delayed caused pollen sterility and grain filling. • Higher incidence of Aflatoxin due to the heat and drought • Abandoned fields and extremely lower yield under dryland conditions. Current Drought Impacts and Mitigation Options for the Agriculture Sector – NIDIS, December 1, 2011

8. 2011 Drought Impact on Row Crops production in Alabama and Georgia Corn Crop Situation – Data from Georgia • Dryland corn – Failure on coastal plain soils (severe drought in amount and duration) • Irrigated corn – Yields were variable • Pivot irrigation – Highest yield ever (Irrigation reduced in-canopy temperatures) • Irrigation management was key - Corn yields under pivots that did not meet the water demand were about 10 to 20% below the pivot average yield. • Reduced availability of water for surface irrigation for corn. Corn yields were good when these limited water sources were held and used from pre-tassel to early dough. • North Georgia mountain valley farms received some timely rainfall in the summer. Coupled with higher than normal solar radiation, it led to good dryland production for a small segment of dryland producers. Current Drought Impacts and Mitigation Options for the Agriculture Sector – NIDIS, December 1, 2011

9. Mitigation Strategies Farmers’ climate education and DST Discussion of current conditions and climate forecast Changes in agronomic management strategies Water Management

10. 1. Farmers’ climate education and DST Tristate Climate Working Group For Row Crop Agriculture -FL, GA, AL GOAL: To explore how participatory processes enhance the capacity of local stakeholders to learn from one another and collaboratively prepare for climate variability and change

11. 1. Farmers’ climate education and DST Tristate Climate Working Group For Row Crop Agriculture (FL, GA, AL ) • Methodology For Engaging Stakeholders • Listen to stakeholder priorities: Identify immediate interests vs. long-term concerns • Use tools such as timelines to reveal past experiences of coping with change • Present data on historical climate extremes and trends • Demonstrate decision-support tools (AgroClimate) • Small group discussions to brainstorm responses /adaptations to hypothetical climate situations • Identify constraints and opportunities for future adaptation Current Drought Impacts and Mitigation Options for the Agriculture Sector – NIDIS, December 1, 2011

12. 1. Farmers’ climate education and DST Agroclimate workshops for Stakeholders

13. Drought DS Tools in Agroclimate

15. 2. Water Management

17. 2. Water Management Current Drought Impacts and Mitigation Options for the Agriculture Sector – NIDIS, December 1, 2011

18. 3. Discussion of current conditions and climate forecast • Formal presentations during farmers meetings, farmers’ magazine reports and internet climate and Agroclimate outlooks • Current conditions and ENSO-based climate forecast • No skill on ENSO-based climate forecast during summer months. • For Agricultural Applications Monthly and Decadal forecasts are necessary, especially for irrigation management • If planting dates are going to be adjusted based on forecasted climate conditions  forecast must be issued at least three months in advance Current Drought Impacts and Mitigation Options for the Agriculture Sector – NIDIS, December 1, 2011

19. 4. Management Practices Evaluate and compare different planting densities and planting dates as potential adaptation strategies to reduce the risk for pre-harvest aflatoxin. 2010 Data

20. Thanks Brenda Ortiz bortiz@auburn.edu 334-844-5534