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Regional Impacts of State jobs in Denmark The General Interregional Quantity Model

Regional Impacts of State jobs in Denmark The General Interregional Quantity Model. by Bjarne Madsen. Bjarne Madsen. Statslige arbejdspladser – definition & statistik Lidt polemik Konsekvenser af statslige arbejdspladser - mængdemodel 2 gange 2 gange 2 princippet – SAM-K and LINE

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Regional Impacts of State jobs in Denmark The General Interregional Quantity Model

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  1. Regional Impacts of State jobs in DenmarkThe General Interregional Quantity Model by Bjarne Madsen Bjarne Madsen

  2. Statslige arbejdspladser – definition & statistik Lidt polemik Konsekvenser af statslige arbejdspladser - mængdemodel 2 gange 2 gange 2 princippet – SAM-K and LINE Modellering af konsekvenser af statslige arbejdspladser Disposition

  3. Gymnasier fra amtskommuner til staten Sociale institutioner fra amtskommunerne til kommunerne Fordeling af jobs på ejerkode - databrud og kommunalreform

  4. Udvikling i statslige arbejdspladser

  5. Udvikling i statslige arbejdspladser

  6. Table 1. The 10 municipalities with the highest and the 10 municipalities with the lowest share of employment by place of production in state jobs in Denmark in 2008

  7. Direkte konsekvenser Pendling fra arbejdssted til bopæl Bemærk: fra nationalregnskabsbeskæftigelse (arbejdssted) til RAS (Bopæl) Overgang fra produktionssted til bopæl

  8. Table 2. The 10 municipalities with the highest and the 10 municipalities with the lowest share of employment by place of residence in state jobs in Denmark in 2008

  9. Arbejds Marked 2 by 2 by 2-principle Vare- Marked

  10. Arbejds Marked 2 by 2 by 2-principle Vare- Marked

  11. Arbejds Marked 2 by 2 by 2-principle Factor Market Vare- Marked Comm. Market

  12. g x Empl. Unempl. bIC Pop Lab.fo. G Induced effects v Arbejds Marked J pv D H BIC puCP bCP Direct effects SCP Indirect effects BCP SIC Vare- Marked T f

  13. 2 markets (commodity market and market for production factors) 2 actors (producers and institutions) 4 basic regional concepts (Place of production (P), place of factor markets (Q), place of residence of institutions (R) and place of commodity markets (S)) 4 basic SAM-actors (Sectors (J), production factors (G), institutions (H) and commodities (I)) Origin / destination for all flows The ”2 by 2 by 2”-principle

  14. The one-region ”A-model” From the ”A-model” to the ”2 x 2 x 2”-principle-model The point of departure for our model construction is the one-region Leontief quantity model, where gross output is determined by demand: x = Ax + f .................................(1) where x : gross output by sector and region A: intermediate consumption by sector of origin as share of gross output, by purchasing sector and region f : final demand, by sector and region

  15. The one-region ”A-model” From the ”A-technology” to the two by two by two principle f x

  16. the Isard interregional ”A-model” From the ”A-technology” to the two by two by two principle f x

  17. the Isard interregional ”A-model” From the ”A-model” to the ”2 x 2 x 2”-principle-model The interregional quantity model x = Ax + f .................................(1) The analytical solution to the Interregional quantity model is:

  18. The interregional input-output model – the ”ideal” Isard model (SØREN-model (Groes) AIDA-model (Madsen & Jensen-Butler)) Sectors A interregional (from j,r to j,r) x=Ax+f The multiregional input-output model – the ”pool-approach” (Chenery-Moses) model (ASTRID-model (Anne Kaag Andersen)) Sectors Single region A for all regions Pool approach T interregional (from r to r) x=TAx+Tf The ”2 by 2 by 2”-principle – first step: Sectors and commodities Use- (B), Trade- (T) and Make- (D) tables Pool approach x=DTBx + DTf From the ”A-model” to the ”2 x 2 x 2”-principle-modelThe interregional quantity model

  19. x 2 by 2 by 2-principle model B D Arbejds Marked T f Make-Use Approach x=DTBx+DTf x=(I-DTB)-1DTf x=(I+DTB1+DTB2+DTB3+….)DTf instead of x=Ax+f x=(I-A) -1f x=(I+A1+A2+A3+….)f Institutional Approach

  20. bIC x 2 by 2 by 2-principle model BIC D SIC Arbejds Marked f T

  21. g x Empl. Unempl. bIC Pop Lab.fo. G Induced effects v Arbejds Marked J pv D H BIC puCP bCP Direct effects SCP Indirect effects BCP SIC Vare- Marked T f

  22. From the ”A-model” to the ”2 x 2 x 2”-principle-model

  23. From the ”A-model” to the ”2 x 2 x 2”-principle-modelThe price model

  24. From the ”A-model” to the ”2 x 2 x 2”-principle-modelThe price model The analytical solution to the Leontief price model is:

  25. The interregional input-output model - the ”ideal” Isard model (Toyomane & Oosterhaven) Sectors A interregional (from j,r to j,r) p’=p’A+v’(i’-bIC’) The multiregional input-output model – the ”pool-approach” (Chenery-Moses) model (no examples….) Sectors Pool approach T interregional (from r to r) p’=p’TA+Tv’(i’-bIC’) The ”2 by 2 by 2”-principle – first step: Sectors and commodities Use- (B), Trade- (T) and Make- (D) tables Pool approach p’=p’DTB +v’(i’-bIC’) From the ”A-model” to the ”2 x 2 x 2”-principle-modelThe price model

  26. 2 by 2 by 2-principle model v p B D Arbejds Marked T Make-Use Approach p’=p’DTB+v’ p’=v’(I-DTB)-1 p’=v’(I+DTB1+DTB2+DTB3+….) instead of p’=p’A+v’ p’=v’(I-A) -1 p’=v’(I+A1+A2+A3+….) Institutional Approach

  27. This v bIC p 2 by 2 by 2-principle-model BIC D SIC Arbejds Marked T

  28. pvx bIC g p G Arbejds Marked J pgx 2 by 2 by 2-principle-model D H BIC puCP bCP SCP BCP SIC Vare- Marked T

  29. The cost-price model can be solved as follows:

  30. The general interregional quantity model x=QM(f, pv, D, T , SIC , BIC , bIC , SCP , BCP , bCP , J, G, jx) The general interregional price model p=PM(pvx, pvg, D, T , SIC , BIC , bIC , SCP , BCP , bCP , J, G, jx) =General Interregional Model (GIM) Solving and linking the quantity and price models

  31. The quantity model x=QM(f, pv, D, T , SIC , BIC , bIC , SCP , BCP , bCP , J, G, jx) Employment (q), Unemployment (ul) The price model p=PM(pvx, pvg, D, T , SIC , BIC , bIC , SCP , BCP , bCP , J, G, jx) Consumer prices (pCP ) Export prices (pf) Prices on coeffients such as pD,pT, pSIC…. Solving and linking the quantity and price models =General Interregional Model (=GIM)

  32. The quantity model x=QM(f, pv, D, T , SIC , BIC , bIC , SCP , BCP , bCP , J, G, jx) Employment (q), Unemployment (ul) The price model p=PM(pvx, pvg, D, T , SIC , BIC , bIC , SCP , BCP , bCP , J, G, jx) Consumer prices (pCP) Export prices (pf) Prices on coeffients such as pD,pT, pSIC…. Linking the two models The quantity model (QM) f(pf ) D(pD),T(pT), SIC(pSIC)..etc. pv(ul, puCP) f – other than export (EXOGENOUS) The price model (PM) pvx, pvg (EXOGENOUS) Solving and linking the quantity and price models =General Interregional Model (=GIM)

  33. 2 markets (commodity market and factor market) – No factor market in Statistics 2 actors (producers and institutions) 4 basic regional concepts – no place of factor market (Place of production (P), place of factor markets (Q), place of residence of institutions (R) and place of commodity markets (S)) 4 basic SAM-actors (Sectors (J), production factors (G), institutions (H) and commodities (I)) – Consumption components (W) between (H) to (I) ”2 by 2 by 2”-principleFrom GIM to LINE Origin / destination for all flows

  34. From GIM to LINE

  35. From GIM to LINE

  36. From GIM to LINE

  37. From regional A-matrices to data for the 2 by 2 by 2-diagram: Two types of data Top-down data National account data Bottom-up data Register / micro data The 2 by 2 by 2 principle in local economic accounting (SAM-K)

  38. Productions units Bottom-up data 4 P j i 5 P j i 1 P j g Top-down data Factor market 2 P R g 3 R g h House holds 9 R h i 8 R S i 6 P S i Comm. market 7 S P i

  39. Top-down data National account National commodity balances (Make- and Use tables) National supply of commodities National demand of commodities Regional commodity balances Regional supply of commodities Regional demand of commodities The 2 by 2 by 2 principle in local economic accounting (SAM-K) Top-down data

  40. National Commodity Balance and Trade – in commodities, not in sectors: National production +International imports =Supply National demand +international exports =Demand The 2 by 2 by 2 principle in local economic accounting (SAM-K) Top-down data

  41. Regional Commodity Balance and Trade – in commodities, not in sectors: Regional production +Interregional imports +International imports =Supply Regional demand +interregional exports +international exports =Demand The 2 by 2 by 2 principle in local economic accounting (SAM-K) Top-down data

  42. From sectors/wants to commodities: Regional production: Regional Gross Output by sector National Make-matrix (sector x commodity) Regional Gross Output by commodity Regional demand: Regional Intermediate Consumption by sector and Final Demand by component of want National Use matrix (sector/want x commodity) Regional Intermediate Consumption and Final Demand by commodity The 2 by 2 by 2 principle in local economic accounting (SAM-K) Top-down data

  43. Productions units Taxes / subsidies / margins 4 P j i 5 P j i 1 P j g T/S/M Factor market Top-down data T/S/M 2 P R g 3 R g h House holds 9 R h i T/S/M 8 R S i 6 P S i T/S/M Comm. market 7 S P i

  44. T/S/M = Taxes / Subsidies / Margins Taxes / subsidies Non-mobile margins (Retail / wholesale margins) Mobile margins (Transport) 2 by 2 by 2-principle (T/S/M) Top-down data

  45. Taxes / subsidies - 4 types: Production taxes subsidies (PJ) Factor (market) taxes / subsidies (QG) Institutions taxes / subsidies (RS) Commodity (market) taxes (SI) 2 by 2 by 2-principle (T/S/M) Top-down data

  46. Non-Mobile margins - 4 types Commodity margins (Place of production = Place of commodity market = SI) Retail margins Wholesale margins Factor margins (Place of production = Place of factor market = QG) Retail margins Wholesale margins 2 by 2 by 2-principle (T/S/M) Top-down data

  47. Mobile margins - 4 types Commodity transport: Trade (From PJ til SI) Shopping / Tourism (From SI to RH) Commuting From Home to labor market (From RH to QG) From labor market to Production (From QG to PJ) 2 by 2 by 2-principle (T/S/M) Top-down data

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