The Texas Dropout Crisis

1. The Texas Dropout Crisis Magnitude and Impact A LEGISLATIVE BRIEFING ON THE TEXAS DROPOUT CRISIS January 23, 2007, 8:15 - 10:00 AM Texas State Capitol, E2.026

2. IDRA Attrition Research 1986 - 2006 Numbers Causes Solutions Dr. Albert Cortez Intercultural Development Research Association

3. Texas Public School Attrition Rates

4. Minorities - Persistently Highest Rates

5. IDRA Estimates of Students Lost To Attrition

6. Cumulative Students Lost 1986 to 2006 2,533,169

7. Texas Graduation Rates:Comparative Data Dr. Eileen Coppola Rice University Center for Education

8. Texas Graduation Rates:Comparative Data Sources: • Texas Education Agency • Editorial Projects in Education Research (Education Week) • University of Texas in Dallas/Brown University • The Civil Rights Project at Harvard University • University of Texas in Austin

9. TEA: Secondary School Completion and Dropouts in Texas Public Schools 2004-2005

10. TEA: Secondary School Completion and Dropouts in Texas Public Schools 2004-05, District Supplement, Large Districts

11. Editorial Projects in Education Research Center: “Diplomas Count” • Used the Common Core of Data, an annual federal census • Cumulative Promotion Index, which tracks grade to grade promotion • The 84.2% statewide graduation rate reported by the TEA is 17 percentage points higher than the rate of 66.8% reported in Diplomas Count

12. Comparison of CPI versus TEA Graduation Rates Statewide and by Ethnicity

13. Comparison of CPI versus TEA Rates for Major Texas Districts

14. The High School Pipeline (CPI)

15. University of Texas in Dallas,Magnus LofstromBrown University, John Tyler • Used longitudinal, student-level data. • A student belongs to the graduating class during the year s/he turns 18. • A student is defined to be a school dropout if s/he is observed enrolled in a Texas public school at age 15 and by the year s/he turns 20 has not yet graduated nor is enrolled. • Study also found that in 1999 GED recipients fared only slightly better than dropouts in the Texas economy.

16. Texas Official Completion Rate Compared to Lofstrom/Tyler Analysis

17. Summary • Statewide, the graduation rate is estimated by researchers as currently about 67%, not the 84% estimated by TEA. • The difference comes from removing missing students from the denominator count, and through use of leaver codes that obscure the extent of the crisis.

18. Summary • For African American, Latino, and Economically Disadvantaged students statewide, the graduation rate is approximately 60%. • In our major urban districts, we see graduation rates that hover around 50%. • In addition, one study by Heilig-Vazquez of UT Austin shows ELL graduation rates as low as 20% for a major urban district. • These figures are consistent with IDRA’s attrition research.

19. The Costs of Dropping Out Frances Deviney, Ph.D., Center for Public Policy PrioritiesAlbert Cortez, Ph.D., Intercultural Development Research Association

20. Cost of Dropping Out • Cost to the Student • Cost to the Education System • Cost to the State

21. Cost to the Individual 2006 Official federal poverty line • Family of 2 < $13,200/year • Family of 3 < $16,600/year • Family of 4 < $20,000/year

22. Cost to the Individual Source: Median Earnings in Past 12 Months for Texas Population 25 and Over, 2005 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

23. Cost to the Individual Texas teens 16-19 years old not in school and do not have a high school degree: Over 98,000 Increase in earnings potential if graduated: Single dropout = $9,211 more / year All dropouts = Over $900 million more / year All dropouts = $3.6 billion more in four years Source: Tables C14005 & B20004, 2005 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

24. Cost to the Education System Student Loss Before Graduation: The Class of 2004 9th & 10th 68,000+ 10th & 11th 26,000+ 11th & 12th 22,000+ 12th & grad 12,000+ Total = Nearly 130,000

25. Cost to the Education System If all 360,857 students originally enrolled in the 9th grade in 2000-2001 stayed in the Texas public school system until graduation in 2004 . . . Cost an additional $1.7 billion This is just the cost for the Class of 2004! And it is a conservative estimate! Source: Deviney, F. P., & Cavazos, L. (2006). The High Cost of Dropping Out: How Many, How Come, How Much. Center for Public Policy Priorities.

26. Cost to the State High school dropouts have greater need for government assistance • 4 in 10 receive government assistance (2001, ages 16-24) • More likely to be unemployed • 8 times as likely to be incarcerated (2006) • Significant loss in tax revenue

27. Cost to the State IDRA analysis of Social Service Costs • Job Training • Adult Education • Unemployment & Job Placement • Crime & Incarceration • Lost Wages • Lost Tax Revenue

28. Cost to the State Over time, dropouts from the Class of 1986 cost Texas: $16.89 billion dollars • $137,504 average earnings loss per dropout • $58,930 average loss in taxes Source: Cardenas, J. A., Robledo, M. R., & Supik, J. D. (1986). Texas School Dropout Survey Project: A Summary of Findings. IDRA.

29. Cost to the State Since their initial study, IDRA estimates 2.5 million students lost Cost of $730.1 billion to Texas! Source: Johnson, R. (2006). Texas Public School Attrition Study, 2005-06. IDRA.

30. Addressing the Dropout Crisis in Texas Principles for Action Dr. Angela Valenzuela, University of Texas, Texas Center for Educational Policy Dr. Robert Sanborn, CHILDREN AT RISK Dr. Albert Cortez, Intercultural Development Research Association

31. Principles for Action Principle 1: All students enrolled in Texas secondary schools should be expected, and must be supported, to graduate from high school with a regular high school diploma. Principle 2: The state must restore the credibility of official dropout counts by accurately accounting for the educational status of every pupil that entered the 9th grade in any Texas secondary school. Principle 3: Using Texas’ excellent student-level longitudinal data, the state should implement a transparent and simple methodology to count and report on dropouts. Reporting should be readily available and easily accessible to the public. Reporting must directly inform communities and parents about the status of the issue and progress being made to address it.

32. Principles for Action Principle 4: State efforts to decrease the dropout rate should recognize and address systemic issues that affect student graduation, documented by research (including teaching quality, curriculum quality and access, student engagement, etc.) and incorporate both dropout prevention and dropout recovery. Principle 5: Ongoing evaluation must be an integral part of any effort at the state and local level to address the dropout problem. Principle 6: In ensuring that all students graduate, schools should incorporate pedagogical changes that allow them to better adapt to the needs and strengths of their students.

33. Principles for Action Principle 7: No single criterion (e.g. high stakes testing) should be used to make high school graduation decisions for any individual student. Principle 8: The state must acknowledge shared accountability for the dropout issue at state, district and local levels by investing the personnel and fiscal resources needed to help schools meet state-established graduation targets. Adequate, equitable funding must be allocated to address this crisis. Principle 9: Any response to the dropout issue must be based on valuing Texas families, educators, communities, and students; no response should promote a “deficit model” or blame.