WWF

1. WWF Climate Change & Carbon Price Study amr contacts Amanda Coombeamanda.coombe@amrsydney.com.au Oliver Freedmanoliver.freedman@amrsydney.com.au WWF Contacts Phil FreemanPFreeman@wwf.org.au Kellie CaughtKCaught@wwf.org.au 18th April, 2013

2. Background & Method Background • This study explored perceptions and support of Carbon Pricing and Climate Change, as well as the factors which have impacted peoples perceptions over the past year. Method • An online survey was conducted among Australians aged 18+. • Fieldwork ran from March 25th – 27th. • The survey captured the views of 1295 respondents. • Respondents were representative of the Australian population in terms of their age and gender by each major city.

3. Sample Sizes Darwin (n=7**) Brisbane (n=215) Perth (n=143) Sydney (n=338) Adelaide (n=148) ACT (n=48*) Melbourne (n=383) Hobart (n=13*) *Small sample size/ ** Extremely small sample size Base: All respondents (n=1295) Question: S6 “Which area do you currently live in?”

4. Key Findings • Once given basic information about the Carbon Price, only a third of people still want it repealed. The number in favour of the repeal was significantly lower among the one in five Australians who are unsure of their voting intention with only 19% wanting the Carbon Price repealed. Conversely, support of the repeal is higher among the 38% of Australians who would vote for the Liberal Party. • The key reason given for why the Carbon Price should be repealed is that it has increased cost of living. When asked why the Carbon Price should stay, people state it is a real incentive for big polluters to change. Behavioural economic theory suggests that promoting messages of the Carbon Price benefits whilst ignoring the negative messages surrounding it is likely to have the biggest improvement on support. Almost three quarters of Australians feel that humans are contributing to climate change, with the next largest group unsure about human contribution. Those under the age of 50 have a higher belief in the human contribution to climate change, along with females. Among those who feel humans are contributing to climate change, extreme weather events are resonating and impacting their opinions most. Conversely, those who are more certain that humans are not contributing recall being most impacted by the media.

5. Once informed about the Carbon Price only one third of Australians are in favour of its repeal. • Although the percentage of those unsure remained the same the make up of those is different. Almost a quarter of those who were previously unsure were in favour once informed and some of those who wanted it repealed became unsure. The Carbon Price 5% 4% 3% “The Carbon Price/tax will eventually make renewable energy cheaper than traditional coal, and over the next 5 years, $5 billion dollars raised from the Carbon Price will be invested in large scale renewable energy development.“ Base: All respondents (n=1295) Question: G3“The Carbon Price/tax has applied to major carbon polluting businesses since the middle of 2012. Which of the following comes closest to your view on how Australia should handle carbon pricing?”G4“The Carbon Price/tax will eventually make renewable energy cheaper than traditional coal, and over the next 5 years, $5 billion dollars raised from the Carbon Price will be invested in large scale renewable energy development. Now knowing this do you think...”

6. Unsurprisingly those who would vote for the Liberal Party are most in favour of repealing the Carbon Price, whilst Labour and Green supporters are least in favour. The other group which does not support the repeal is the 20% of Australians who are undecided about their voting intention. The Carbon Price - Informed Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by Federal Election first preference G6 Question: G4 “The Carbon Price/tax will eventually make renewable energy cheaper than traditional coal, and over the next 5 years, $5 billion dollars raised from the Carbon Price will be invested in large scale renewable energy development. Now knowing this do you think...”

7. Melbourne is most in favour of giving the Carbon Price an opportunity to work. However all cities have more positivity than negativity towards the Carbon Price. The Carbon Price - Informed Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by Location S6 Question: G4 “The Carbon Price/tax will eventually make renewable energy cheaper than traditional coal, and over the next 5 years, $5 billion dollars raised from the Carbon Price will be invested in large scale renewable energy development. Now knowing this do you think...”

8. The key reason given for repealing the Carbon Price is “increased cost of living”. Almost half of those against the Tax still want to address Climate Change but do not feel Carbon Pricing is the best policy. Although instinct may be to counter this message, behavioural economics has shown that to advocate a counter message only reinforces the original message. This is the result of two key behaviours; firstly, people tend to remember things they have heard not in full but truncate what they hear. Whilst the original message may be “The Carbon Tax will not increase cost of living” people after a while recall “Carbon Tax” “cost of living”. This then compounds the issue as we are biased to believe things we hear most often. Reasons for repealing the Carbon Price Base: Those who think the carbon tax should be repealed G4 (n=438) Question: G5 “Why do you favour repeal of the Carbon Price laws?

9. The incentive for big polluters to reduce their pollution is the main reason for supporting the Carbon Price. According to the behavioural economic theories, focusing on the positive outcomes of the Carbon Price (such as the incentive for big polluters) and ignoring any negative messages spread by those against it is most likely to encourage support. Reasons for giving the Carbon Price an opportunity to work Base: Those who think the carbon tax should be given an opportunity to work G4 (n=598) Question: G5a “Why do you think we should give the Carbon Price an opportunity to work?”

10. The vast majority of Australians believe humans are contributing to climate change. Belief in human contribution is becoming stronger for over a quarter of Australians, while only 4% are more sure that humans are not impacting climate change. Views towards climate change 72% of Australians believe humans are contributing to climate change whilst 13% deny that humans have any impact. Base: Total n=1295 Question: G1. “Which of the following best describes your view towards climate change?”

11. Belief in climate change is more prevalent among younger age groups with approximately 80% of all those under 50 believing that humans contribute to climate change. Views towards climate change Base: Total n=1295 Question: G1. “Which of the following best describes your view towards climate change?”

12. Females are more likely to believe that humans are contributing to climate change. Views towards climate change Base: Total n=1295 Question: G1. View towards climate change

13. About 20% of Australians can not recall their opinion on climate change being impacted at all in the last year. The most common sources of influence are extreme weather events and information from scientists. Which have impacted on your opinion on climate change Base: Total n=1295 Question: G2. “Which have impacted on your opinion on climate change?”

14. Among those Australians who are becoming more certain about the human contribution to climate change, the number one factor strengthening this view is extreme weather events. Which have impacted on your opinion on climate change Base: Humans are contributing and I am more certain n=369, Humans are not contributing and I am more certain n=47 Question: G2. “Which have impacted on your opinion on climate change?”

15. Appendix

16. Those who are more certain about humans contributing to climate change recall being impacted by extreme weather events and the media. Which have impacted on your opinion on climate change Base: All respondents (n=1295) Question: G2“Which of the following have impacted your opinion towards climate change?” Question: G1“Which of the following best describes your view towards climate change?”

17. Of those who DON’T believe humans are contributing toclimate change, things heard through the media and environmental groups are cited as having the biggest impact on their views. Which have impacted on your opinion on climate change Base: All respondents (n=1295) Question: G2“Which of the following have impacted your opinion towards climate change?” Question: G1“Which of the following best describes your view towards climate change?”

18. What impacts views on climate change Which have impacted on your opinion on climate change Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by location S6 Question: G2 “Which of the following have impacted your opinion towards climate change?”

19. What impacts views on climate change Which have impacted on your opinion on climate change Base: All respondents (n=1295)cut by Federal Election first preference G6 Question: G2 “Which of the following have impacted your opinion towards climate change?”

20. Views on climate change Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by Federal Election first preference G6 Question: G1 “Which of the following best describes your view towards climate change?”

21. Views on climate change Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by location S6 Question: G1 “Which of the following best describes your view towards climate change?”

22. Views on the Carbon Price - Uninformed Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by location S6 Question: G3 “The Carbon Price/tax has applied to major carbon polluting businesses since the middle of 2012. Which of the following comes closest to your view on how Australia should handle carbon pricing?”

23. Views on the Carbon Price - Uninformed Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by Federal Election first preference G6 Question: G3 “The Carbon Price/tax has applied to major carbon polluting businesses since the middle of 2012. Which of the following comes closest to your view on how Australia should handle carbon pricing?”

24. Authors: Amanda Coombeamanda.coombe@amrsydney.com.auOliver Freedmanoliver.freedman@amrsydney.com.auP: 61 2 9020 6735