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Cassandra Smart statistics for policy support

Cassandra Smart statistics for policy support. Computer ASSisted ANalysis using Dynamic Regression Algorithms. JRC / EUROSTAT common activities on Big Data analytics. The challenge. VVVs of data. Evidence based policy making. Nowcasting: estimate current value of indicator.

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Cassandra Smart statistics for policy support

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  1. Cassandra Smart statistics for policy support Computer ASSisted ANalysis using Dynamic Regression Algorithms JRC / EUROSTAT common activities on Big Data analytics

  2. The challenge VVVs of data Evidence based policy making

  3. Nowcasting: estimate current value of indicator

  4. SARIMA approach

  5. Now-casting = forecasting r periods after TS r=3 • Current solution • Machine learning • Limited "new" sources • r between 1 and 6 • Confidence interval depends on use Conf. interval r=1 t Time series

  6. Cassandra: Now-casting Flexible, modular structure

  7. Finding structural breaks = "forecasting" last TS value • Current solution • Only "simple" model • r is 1 • Confidence interval depends on how sensitive Conf. interval r=1 t Time series (to t-1)

  8. Real life application: structural break in inflation?

  9. Cassandra: Tailored visualisation tools

  10. Cassandra: flexibility in input, methods, output • New sources of data • Text mining

  11. Cassandra team EUROSTAT Dario Buono Bogomil Kovachev Loredana Di Consiglio Fernando Reis JRC Panos Christidis Andris Peize Alexis Bolivar and growing! Contact: Panayotis.Christidis@ec.europa.eu

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