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MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1

MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1. Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation for Asia and Pacific Countries 20~24 March 2006 Jakarta, Indonesia. 1. What is it?.

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MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1

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  1. MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1 Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation for Asia and Pacific Countries 20~24 March 2006 Jakarta, Indonesia

  2. 1. What is it? • A coupled gas-cycle/climate model (MAGICC) that drives a spatial climate change scenario generator (SCENGEN); • MAGICC: Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change; SCENGEN: SCENario GENerator; • Enabling non-expert users to investigate the implications of alternative emissions scenarios for future global and regional climate change; • Allowing the exploration of emissions scenarios and scientific uncertainties in projecting future global and regional climate change; • An upgraded version of MAGICC/SCENGEN2.4; • Model developed by Tom Wigley, GUI by Seth McGinnis, funded by U.S. EPA through Stratus Consulting

  3. THE MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 : MAGICC Library of Emissions Scenarios Gas Cycle Models User Choices of Model Parameters Atmospheric Composition Changes Global-mean Temperature And Sea Level Model User Choices Of Model Parameters Global-mean Temperature and Sea Level Output SCENGEN

  4. THE MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 : SCENGEN Global-mean Temperature fromMAGICC Library of GCM Data Sets User Choices GCMs to use, Future time slice, Region,… Regionalization Algorithm Library of Baseline Climatology Data (1961-90) Regional Climate or Climate Change Output

  5. Using MAGICC/SCENGEN

  6. MAGICC: Selecting emissions scenarios

  7. MAGICC: Selecting emissions scenarios (continued)

  8. MAGICC: Selecting Forcings

  9. MAGICC: Displaying Results

  10. MAGICC: Displaying Results (continued)

  11. Running SCENGEN

  12. Running SCENGEN (continued)

  13. SCENGEN: Analysis

  14. SCENGEN: Model Selection

  15. SCENGEN: Area of Analysis

  16. SCENGEN: Select Variable

  17. SCENGEN: Emissions scenario

  18. SCENGEN: Map Results

  19. SCENGEN: Numerical Results INTER-MOD S.D. : AREA AVERAGE = 5.186 % (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA) INTER-MOD SNR : AREA AVERAGE = -.067 (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA) PROB OF INCREASE : AREA AVERAGE = .473 (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA) GHG ONLY : AREA AVERAGE = -.411 % (FOR SCALED DATA) AEROSOL ONLY : AREA AVERAGE = -.277 % (FOR SCALED DATA) GHG AND AEROSOL : AREA AVERAGE = -.687 % (FOR SCALED DATA) *** SCALED AREA AVERAGE RESULTS FOR INDIVIDUAL MODELS *** (AEROSOLS INCLUDED) MODEL = BMRCD2 : AREA AVE = 2.404 (%) MODEL = CCC1D2 : AREA AVE = -5.384 (%) MODEL = CCSRD2 : AREA AVE = 6.250 (%) MODEL = CERFD2 : AREA AVE = -2.094 (%) MODEL = CSI2D2 : AREA AVE = 6.058 (%) MODEL = CSM_D2 : AREA AVE = 1.245 (%) MODEL = ECH3D2 : AREA AVE = .151 (%) MODEL = ECH4D2 : AREA AVE = -1.133 (%) MODEL = GFDLD2 : AREA AVE = 1.298 (%) MODEL = GISSD2 : AREA AVE = -3.874 (%) MODEL = HAD2D2 : AREA AVE = -5.442 (%) MODEL = HAD3D2 : AREA AVE = -.459 (%) MODEL = IAP_D2 : AREA AVE = -.088 (%) MODEL = LMD_D2 : AREA AVE = -6.548 (%) MODEL = MRI_D2 : AREA AVE = .065 (%) MODEL = PCM_D2 : AREA AVE = -3.451 (%) MODEL = MODBAR : AREA AVE = -.687 (%)

  20. To obtain the MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 software, please contact Dr Tom Wigley National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Boulder, Colorado U.S.A E-mail: wigley@ucar.edu http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/wigley/magicc/index.html

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