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Paula Jensen February 8, 2012

Paula Jensen February 8, 2012. Forecasting ENGM 745. Agenda. Group Assignments Project 1 assignment Quiz online Discussion with group Figuring out ForecastX - Step by Step in class New Product Forecasting. New-Product Forecasting (growth curve fitting). Gompertz Curve. Logistic Curve.

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Paula Jensen February 8, 2012

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  1. Paula JensenFebruary 8, 2012 Forecasting ENGM 745

  2. Agenda • Group Assignments • Project 1 assignment • Quiz online • Discussion with group • Figuring out ForecastX- Step by Step in class • New Product Forecasting

  3. New-Product Forecasting(growth curve fitting)

  4. Gompertz Curve

  5. Logistic Curve

  6. Bass Model (See Chapter 1,too)

  7. Event Modeling • Event Indices Legend 0. No event present • Free-standing inserts (FSIs) • FSI/radio, television, print campaign • Load (trade promotion) • Deload (month after effect of load) • Thematics (themed adg campaign) • Instant redeemable coupon (IRC)

  8. Forecasting Jewelry Sales using Exponential Smoothing

  9. Forecasting Jewelry Sales using Exponential Smoothing

  10. Forecasting Houses Sold Sales using Exponential Smoothing

  11. Forecasting Houses Sold Sales using Exponential Smoothing

  12. Summary • All basic methods based on smoothing • 1. Moving averages • 2. Simple exponential smoothing • 3. Holt's exponential smoothing • 4. Winters' exponential smoothing • 5. Adaptive-response-rate single exponential smoothing • Use of Deseasonalized Series • techniques not clear winners

  13. Integrative Case: The Gap

  14. Solutions toCase Questions #1

  15. Solutions toCase Questions #3

  16. References Business Forecasting 6th Edition J. Holton Wilson & Barry KeatingMcGraw-Hill

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