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EC4MACS

EC4MACS. Task 3: Ecosystem Impact Assessment by the MNP-Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE). The Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) …. Consists of: Max Posch, Jaap Slootweg, Jean-Paul Hettelingh,

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EC4MACS

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  1. EC4MACS Task 3: Ecosystem Impact Assessment by the MNP-Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  2. The Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) … • Consists of: • Max Posch, • Jaap Slootweg, • Jean-Paul Hettelingh, • Collaborates with Alterra (Wim de Vries and Gert Jan Reinds) on bio-geochamical modelling, • Collaborates with university of Leiden on GIS and ecology. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  3. …Develops methodologies and databases on European critical loads (acidification, eutrophication, heavy metals); deposition below which no adverse effects occur to ecosystems according to current knowledge…, 5th percentile critical loads Eutrophication Acidification Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  4. …and methodologies to assess future effects of changes in the exceedances of critical load (emission scenario dependent)…, Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  5. …in collaboration with 27 National Focal Centres (NFCs),covering about 1,5 million data points on soil-vegetation characteristics within the EMEP modelling domain of GAINS Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  6. …in support of effect-based European air pollution policies; CLRTAP-Oslo protocol (2001), CLRTAP-Gothenburg protocol (1999), EC-NEC directive (2001), EC-Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. Intergovernmental bodies, expert groups and scientific centresUN/ECE-LRTAP Convention International Co-operative Programme on Modelling and Mapping Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  7. …Including scientific consensus under the LRTAP-Convention… Decision on effects basis of protocols. EB WGE Formulate workplan, endorse CCE results. RIVM CCE Methods & data development, reach consensus in ICP M&M, Scientific community & NFCs. Consensus on methods ? UN/ECE workshops, CCE workshops, Conferences. no yes Apply methods; provide data. NFCs Data, and maps verified and ok ? no yes Results (critical loads) in IMPACT module of RAINS and other IEMs. TFIAM Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  8. …implements results in RAINS/GAINS… Critical loads SO emissions S deposition Surface waters 2 for acidification Critical loads NH emissions N deposition Forests soils 3 for nitrogen Critical levels NO emissions O formation Crops x 3 for ozone Secondary Health VOC emissions aerosols guidelines O3 Human health Primary Life Single and Energy PM emissions particles expectancy multiple CH emissions pollutant 4 Agriculture emission CO emissions 2 Industrial controls production Radiative N O emissions Climate 2 forcing/GWP HFC emissions PFC emissions SF emissions 6 Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  9. …focuses in the future on revision processes under CLRTAP and EC (EC4MACS)… • EC-Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution • CLRTAP Gothenburg Protocol Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  10. …Assessing exceedance of critical loads for acidification in e.g.2000, 2010-CLE, 2020-CLE, 2020-MFR 2000 2010-CLE 2020-CLE 2020-MFR Area at risk in EU25: 18%, 11%, 7%, 2% Area at risk in Europe: 12%, 8%, 6%, 1% Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  11. …Assessing exceedance of critical loads for eutrophication in e.g.2000, 2010-CLE, 2020-CLE, 2020-MFR, CLE 2010 2000 CLE 2020 MTFR 2020 Exceedance %: EU25: 65.1 60.3 55.9 25.4 Europe: 45.8 45.6 44.0 13.8 Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  12. …currently extending methods to include biological endpoints also for natura2000 areas… Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  13. …exploring overlays between NFC-sumissions and location of Natura2000 sites…(e.g. Netherlands) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  14. …implemented the CLRTAP and EC4MACS workplan • Track 1: Voluntary Call for Data 2006/07 • Empirical N critical loads: • Should be done by all countries to be able to compare with computed values! • - Update of the critical load of nitrogen: • Application of wide(r) range of critical limits, also addressing biodiversity. • (CCE-Alterra Background Document) • - Dynamic Modelling: • - Enquire availability of data to run more complex (Δ vegetation) models. • Track 2: 2007-future • - Focus on implementation/use of (more complex) modelling of N-effects • on biodiversity (see CCE Background Document) and Natura2000 areas • Under climate change… • Under uncertainty. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  15. …will review results under climate change… • Δ temperature → Δ critical load • Δ precipitation → Δ critical load • … • Δ dispersion → Δ exceedance of critical loads • … • → Δ risk of impacts (magnitude and spatial distribution Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  16. …will review results under uncertainty. • Critical loads cannot be validated (…impacts are in the future…) • …Can be verified by means of “ensemble modelling” (use more than 1 single methodology; e.g. comparing magnitude and spatial distribution of empirical and computed critical loads • …focus on robustness of exceedances… • …by improving knowledge on false positifs (wrongly reject exceedance), and collaborate with the EC4MACS team in identifying no regret scenarios and co-benefits to diminish the “cost” of false negatifs (wrongly reject non-exceedance). Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  17. Thank you www.mnp.nl/cce Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

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