1 / 22

Faking it: How accepted practice in project scoping and assessment has conned us

Faking it: How accepted practice in project scoping and assessment has conned us. John Smyrk Visiting Fellow School of Management, Marketing & International Business ANU College of Business & Economics AIPM Conference Hobart 2007. Theme.

wayde
Download Presentation

Faking it: How accepted practice in project scoping and assessment has conned us

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Faking it:How accepted practice in project scoping and assessment has conned us John Smyrk Visiting Fellow School of Management, Marketing & International Business ANU College of Business & Economics AIPM Conference Hobart 2007

  2. Theme • Conventional practice ignores target outcomes in projects. • Two unsatisfactory consequences: • Criteria for gauging project success are flawed. • There is no reliable method for solving the scoping problem. • Both problems can be addressed with the author’s ITO model. John Smyrk: Australian National University

  3. The conventional test for project success • A project: • Is successful if it meets its objectives. • Has three objectives: • To deliver outputs of agreed quality. • To do this on time. • To do this within an agreed budget. • Is therefore successful if outputs are delivered with agreed quality, on time and within budget. • This test is provably flawed. John Smyrk: Australian National University

  4. Assessing a project • Ex ante • Assessment is called appraisal. • Used to inform the funding decision. • Documented in a business case. • Ex post • Assessment is called evaluation. • Used to gauge project success. • Documented in a closure report. John Smyrk: Australian National University

  5. The ultimate test for project success • Would the funder have approved the project knowing in detail how it turned out? • If yes, the project is successful. • If no the project is unsuccessful. • A project’s “equation of worth”: • Worth = F(benefits, disbenefits, cost) • Benefits ~ magnitude & timing • Disbenefits ~ magnitude & timing • Costs ~ magnitude & timing John Smyrk: Australian National University

  6. Ex ante: Target outcomes Expected undesirable outcomes Anticipated cost Anticipated timeframe Risk (a measure of the reliability of these parameters). Ex post: Actual desirable outcomes Actual undesirable outcomes Actual cost Actual timeframe Outputs delivered fit-for-purpose (binary). A project’s assessment parameters John Smyrk: Australian National University

  7. The flaw in conventional evaluation • How would a funder view a project in which: • Outputs were delivered: • Fit-for-purpose. • Under budget. • Within an agreed timeframe. • No desirable outcomes were realised. • Undesirable outcomes were unacceptable. • Under the previous rule this project would be judged a failure—but conventional wisdom classifies it as successful. John Smyrk: Australian National University

  8. Project scope • Under the conventional view, scope: • Has to be set. • Is about constraining the work in a project. • Determined by the project’s deliverables. • I propose the following scoping principle: • A project is scoped if and only if its outputs are defined. • A project’s outputs are defined when: • They are listed. • Their fitness-for-purpose features are set. John Smyrk: Australian National University

  9. The scoping problem • A proposed project has a tentative list of outputs: A, B, C & D—but: • “Output E” has been proposed for addition to the existing scope. • “Output A” has been proposed for removal from the existing scope. • How are these issues to be resolved? • The conventional wisdom appears to say “Ask someone”! John Smyrk: Australian National University

  10. The central role of target outcomes • The concept of target outcomes is central to: • Judging a project (ex ante & ex post). • Solving the scoping problem. • Target outcomes are: • Are the desired end-effects we seek from the project. • Effectively the same thing as benefits. • Intangible but measurable. John Smyrk: Australian National University

  11. The IPO model of a project • The conventional view of a project is based on an IPO (Input-Process-Output) model: INPUTS PROJECT OUTPUTS Resources Work Products John Smyrk: Australian National University

  12. Incorporating outcomes into a project ITO = “Input-Transform-Outcome”. OUTCOMES INPUTS PROJECT UTILISATION OR CONSUMPTION OUTPUTS John Smyrk: Australian National University

  13. Stakeholding and the ITO model • The Project Owner is accountable (to the Funder) for the realisation of target outcomes. • In utilising outputs, the Project’s Customers “cause” outcomes to emerge. • The Project Manager is accountable to the Project Owner for delivery of project outputs. John Smyrk: Australian National University

  14. Expressing outcomes & outputs • Outputs: • Deliverables are always “things” (artifacts). • Always expressed as nouns. • Can be guaranteed (because the work is controllable). • Outcomes: • Changes in measurable characteristics of the world. • Usually expressed as nouns —qualified by an “–ed” word. • Increased efficiency. • Improved access. • Cannot be guaranteed (because utilisation is not controllable). John Smyrk: Australian National University

  15. Appraising a project • Target outcomes drive benefits. • Undesirable outcomes drive disbenefits. • Outputs drive work. • Work drives timeframes and costs. • Uncertainty about the above parameters drives risk. John Smyrk: Australian National University

  16. Scoping a project with the ITO model • A statement of scope for a project: • Lists its outputs. • Lists its target outcomes. • Provides an overarching statement of objective. • Issues: • How are we to confirm that the list of outputs and the list of outcomes are internally consistent? • Can the ITO model be used analytically? John Smyrk: Australian National University

  17. List of outputs List of target outcomes The structure of a statement of scope • Statement of objective: • Short • Begins with “To …” • Outcomes oriented. • Indicates intent John Smyrk: Australian National University

  18. Scoping with the ITO model • The Customer Map is a model of Utilisation in the ITO model in which: • Columns are associated with target outcomes. • Rows are associated with outputs. • Entries identify those customers who utilise the outputs on the left to generate the outcomes at the top. • The CM quickly reveals “surplus” or “missing” outcomes John Smyrk: Australian National University

  19. The customer map (CM). Names of outcomes go in here Names of linking customers (only) go in here Names of outputs go in here John Smyrk: Australian National University

  20. Entries in the Customer Map • Each cell contains a list of the customers who utilise the output on the left to make an appreciable contribution to the outcomes above. • Three sorts of entry: • Null (empty). • One customer. • Multiple customers. John Smyrk: Australian National University

  21. Significant patterns of entries • The one (and only one) customer appears in all cells—trivial model. • A row is empty: • Implications? • Qualifications? • A column is empty: • Implications? • Qualifications? John Smyrk: Australian National University

  22. Conclusions • Conventional approaches to gauging success and project scoping are both flawed. • The ITO model points to approaches that can resolve both issues. John Smyrk: Australian National University

More Related