Urban Energy Systems: Challenges & Opportunities

1. Urban Energy Systems: Challenges & Opportunities ArnulfGrublerIIASA and Yale University

2. GEA Chapter 18 Urban Energy Systems Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

3. Population by Settlement Type/Size Number ofagglomerationsin 2005 growthdominatedby small &medium sizedcities!

4. GEA Chapter 18 Urban Energy Systems Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

5. Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energyred= above national average, blue = below national average n=132

6. Non-Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energyred= above national average, blue = below national average n=68

7. Direct and Embodied Urban Energy

8. GEA Chapter 18 Urban Energy Systems Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

9. China - Air Pollution (SO2) Exposure

10. Urban Energy and Exergy Efficiency Vienna 2007

11. GEA Chapter 18 Urban Energy Systems Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

12. Stylized Hierarchy in Urban Energy/GHG • Spatial division of labor(trade, industry structure, bunkers) • Income (consumption) • Efficiency of energy end-use(buildings, processes,vehicles, appliances) • Urban form(density↔publictransport↔carownership↔functional mix) • Fuel substitution (imports) • Energy systems integration(co-generation, heat-cascading) • Urban renewables Increasing level ofurban policy leverage Decreasing orderof importance

13. SynCity Urban Policy Leverages

14. GEA Chapter 18 Urban Energy Systems Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

15. GEA Chapter 18 Urban Energy Systems Lead Authors:XuemeiBai, Thomas Buettner, ShobhakarDhakal, David J. Fisk, ArnulfGrubler (CLA),Toshiaki Ichinose, James Keirstead, GerdSammer, David Satterthwaite,NielsB. Schulz, NilayShah, Julia Steinberger, Helga Weisz Contributing Authors: Gilbert Ahamer*, Timothy Baynes*, Daniel Curtis*, Michael Doherty, Nick Eyre*, Junichi Fujino*, Keisuke Hanaki, MikikoKainuma*, Shinji Kaneko, Manfred Lenzen, Jacqui Meyers,HitomiNakanishi, Victoria Novikova*, Krishnan S. Rajan, SeongwonSeo*,Ram ManoharShrestha*, P.R. Shukla*, Alice Sverdlik (*Contributors to GEA KM18 city energy data base) Resources:Online: www.globalenergyassessment.orgChapter 18 (main text)Supporting material: GEA KM18 working papers and city energy data base A. Grubler and D. Fisk (eds), Energizing Sustainable Cities:Assessing Urban Energy, Earthscan (2012)