Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada

1. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Growth and Yield Xinbiao Zhu CIF-NL-AGM St John’s, NL November 12–14, 2014

2. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Forest Planning System Forest inventory (stand type, site quality…) AAC Stocking level Species composition Age structure Harvest schedule Decision variables LP Objective functions (management goals, Constraints) Planning periods (5yrs) Planning horizon (160 yrs) Management strategies Coefficients G & Y curves

3. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service GIS forestry inventory

4. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Sources of forest growth & yield curves Stand table projection model (stand simulator): • Best possible regression equations link growth and influencing factors derived from PSP data, and calibrated using TSP data. • Calculate periodic recruitment, increment and survival of tree cohort (defined by species, DBH, and age). • Project overall stand development over time based on characterising the stand structure at the start of the projection period (initial condition). • A conventional stand table format is used to define structure of a stand on a specific site at any point in time. • Simplicity, relative accuracy in prediction of volume growth, largely used in forest industry for timber supply analysis and management planning. • Require no climate data in projection of stand development (assuming that tree growth conditions remain constant over time).

5. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Process-based forest growth model • Physiological process-based growth model: • Key physiological processes are driven by climate and soil variablesthat define tree growth and biomass yield. • Complex data of many parameters for calibration, validation, and prediction. • Don’t have the same accuracy as empirical G & Y model. • Need professional expertise to calibrate and use. • Useful tools in research of climate change impacts, but rarely suitable for practical forestry. • Forest gap model: • Key physiological processes are simplified and driven by climate and soil variablesthat define tree growth and biomass yield. • Less parameters for calibration, validation, and prediction. • Don’t have the same accuracy as empirical G & Y model. • Need professional expertise to calibrate and use. • Popular tools in research of climate change impacts, but rarely suitable for practical forestry.

6. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Jabowa III forest gap model Initial Stand Condition (PSPs) DBH, Height, Species Site Conditions (PSPs) Elevation, Latitude, Soil texture, Soil rock percentage, Soil depth, Soil fertility status, Root depth, Depth of water table Historical weather records Future climate change scenarios Temperature Precipitation

7. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Composition of the Atmosphere and Radiative Forcing PERMANENT GASESVARIABLE GASES Gas Percent Gas Percent PPM (by volume) (by volume) Dry air N2 78.08 H2O 0 to 4 O2 20.95 CO2 0.0391 391 Ar 0.93 (<1%) CH4 0.00017 1.7 Ne 0.0018 N2O 0.00003 0.3 He 0.0005 O3 0.000004 0.04 H2 0.00006 *CFCs 0.00000002 0.0002 Xe 0.000009 *F-gases (HFC, PFC, SF6)

8. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service IPCC scenario development process • Socio-economic scenarios • Population • GDP • Energy • Industry • Transportation • Agriculture • … • Emission scenarios • GHGs Aerosols & VOCs… • Land use & land cover Radiative forcing scenarios to GCM • Atmospheric concentration • Global carbon cycle • Atmospheric chemistry • Global climate model (GCM) scenarios • Temperature • Humidity • Soil moisture • Extreme events • … IPCC Assessment Reports:1990 SR90, 1992 IS92, 2000 SAR, TAR, 2007 AR4, 2013 AR5 Others: academic (1/2/4xCO2), Stabilization Pathways (S, SRE, SP), etc.

9. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service GCM calibration IPCC AR5 Report

10. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service IPCC 2013 AR5 Scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (Moss et al., Nature 2010, IPCC AR5 2013)

11. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Outputs from GCMs

12. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Outputs from GCMs

13. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service GCM Resolution • CGCM3T47 has a resolution of 4.7o Latitude x 4.7o Longitude (map grids) • Wood supply analysis is based on ecoregion.

14. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service GCM Outputs vs. Observed Data Corner Brook Port Aux Basque Deer Lake St. Anthony

15. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service GCM Outputs vs. Observed Data Corner Brook Port Aux Basque Deer Lake St. Anthony

16. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service A Downscaling Technique (Weather Generator) Inputs: historical weather records (30 years) Solar radiation air temperature precipitation Distribution of dry & wet days Mean temp standard deviation dry/wet days Distribution of dry & wet length Seasonal cycles of MEANS and STDEVs are modeled with Fourier Series Outputs: synthetic surface weather (30 years) Solar radiation air temperature precipitation

17. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Downscaled Minimum Temperature Corner Brook Port Aux Basque Deer Lake St. Anthony

18. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Downscaled Precipitation Corner Brook Port Aux Basque Deer Lake St. Anthony

19. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Spatial interpolation of downscaled climate data • Prepare database (daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation*) for all sites. • Temperature adjustment based on the lapse rate (6 oC/km ) before and after applying the GIS surface interpolation.

20. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Converting data to the required format for JABOWA III forest gap model Deer Lake – Baseline – 1961-1990

21. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Jabowa III forest gap model Initial Stand Condition (PSPs) DBH, Height, Species Site Conditions (PSPs) Elevation, Latitude, Soil texture, Soil rock percentage, Soil depth, Soil fertility status, Root depth, Depth of water table Historical weather records Future climate change scenarios Temperature Precipitation

22. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Model calibration and simulation Historical climate data 1960 - 2011 AR5 climate change scenarios 2008 - 2100 PSP tree list JABOWA-III Gap Model Initial stand condition Calibration Simulated growth – RCP 2.6 Simulated growth – RCP 4.5 PSP growth data – historical Simulated growth – RCP 6.0 Simulated growth – Historical Simulated growth – RCP 8.5

23. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Model Calibration Balsam fir Immature balsam fir (Plot number 187005, District 14) White birch Balsam fir

24. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Simulated basal Area Balsam fir – Avalon Ecoregion Simulation Period (1 = 5 yrs)

25. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Simulated stand volume Balsam fir – Central Ecoregion Simulation Period (1 = 5 yrs)

26. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Estimate of climate change impacts Historical climate data 1960 - 2011 AR5 climate change scenarios 2008 - 2100 PSP tree list JABOWA-III Gap Model Initial stand condition Calibration Simulated growth – RCP 2.6 Simulated growth – RCP 4.5 PSP growth data – historical Simulated growth – RCP 6.0 Simulated growth – Historical Simulated growth – RCP 8.5 Calculation of climate change modifiers Strata-based climate change modifiers– RCP 2.6 Strata-based climate change modifiers– RCP 4.5 Strata-based climate change modifiers– RCP 6.0 Strata-based climate change modifiers– RCP 8.5

27. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Climate Change Modifiers Province Average

28. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Climate Modifiers

29. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Climate Modifiers

30. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Yield curves x Climate modifiers Original yield curves Climate modifiers

31. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Climate-modified yield curves

32. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Forest Planning System Forest inventory (stand type, site quality…) AAC Stocking level Species composition Age structure Harvest schedule Decision variables LP Objective functions (management goals, Constraints) Planning periods (5yrs) Planning horizon (160 yrs) Management strategies Coefficients Modified G & Y curves

33. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Acknowledgement • CFSI and IBES funded the project through graduate student fellowship • UNB colleagues provide supervision of graduate student activities • NRCan colleagues provide downscaled climate change scenarios data

34. CFS Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada Canadian Forest Service Thank You!