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Source : World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

The External Environment for Developing Countries December 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group. G-3 exports now growing at double digits… a good omen for world trade U.S. - Japan and Germany export volumes, ch % 3m/3m saar. Source : World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

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Source : World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

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  1. The External Environment for Developing CountriesDecember 2009The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

  2. G-3 exports now growing at double digits… a good omen for world trade U.S. - Japan and Germany export volumes, ch% 3m/3m saar Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

  3. Gross capital flows increase rapidly in the final months of 2009 bond issuance, IPOs and syndicated bank lending, 3mma, billions US dollars Source: World Bank, Development Prospects Group.

  4. Industrial countries

  5. U.S. GDP marked down for third quarter to 2.8% on consumer and exportsgrowth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Stocks Government Consumption Investment Net exports Source: Department of Commerce.

  6. Narrowing of job losses in Novemberwith new claims down substantially change in employment (‘000, 3mma) [L]; claims for UNR insurance (‘000, 4wma) [R] change in employment [L] claims for unemployment insurance [R] Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

  7. Housing makes some progress in pulling out of recession– but risks remain new and existing home sales, (ch% 3mma y/y) [L]; “Affordability index” [R] Affordability index [R] Existing home sales [L] New home sales [L] Source: Department of Commerce and National Association of Realtors.

  8. Japan’s GDP growth marked down sharply to 1.3% in Q3-09 on invenstmentgrowth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Net Exports Stocks Consumption Government Investment Source: Japan Cabinet Office.

  9. Japanese exports increase as demand from the U.S. and Europe comes into play U.S. imports, Japan exports, (nominal USD) Japan IP-mfgr, ch% 3m/3m saar Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

  10. Japan’s deflation has yet to abate prompting BOJ liquidity provisionsTokyo consumer prices [left]; corporate goods prices (PPI) [right], ch% y/y corporate goods prices [R] consumer prices [L] Source: Japan Cabinet Office.

  11. Euro Area GDP up 1.5% in Q3-09 (saar) on investment and stocksgrowth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Net Exports Stocks Government Consumption Investment Source: Eurostat.

  12. Drivers for European growth continue mixed & uneven GDP growth, third Quarter 2009 (ch%, saar) Source: Eurostat. * contribution to growth.

  13. Euro Area sentiment buoyed by emergence from recessionIFO survey (overall and expectations) [left]; Euro Area consumer confidence [right] Euro Area Consumer Confidence [R] IFO- expectations [L] IFO- overall [L] Source: IFO and European Commission.

  14. Industrial production

  15. World output recovering at a brisk pacegrowth of industrial production, ch% y/y and saar Momentum (3m/3m saar) Year-on-year growth Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

  16. China’s output growth is slowingindustrial production growth, ch% y/y and saar Momentum (3m/3m saar) Year-on-year growth Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

  17. Brazil’s IP grounded in domestic demandindustrial production growth, ch% y/y and saar Momentum (3m/3m saar) Year-on-year growth Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

  18. International trade

  19. Imports strengthened in high income countries over the third quarterimport volumes, 3 mma seasonally adjusted percent change Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

  20. U.S. trade deficit narrows on stronger exports and lower oil importsbalance of trade (annualized), and deficit minus oil, $ billion Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

  21. Developing countries’ exports return to year-over-year growth in OctoberExport volumes, year-over-year percent change Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

  22. Oil prices

  23. Oil prices and OECD oil stocks $/bbl million bbl OECD stocks [R] Oil price [L scale] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  24. World oil consumption growthmillion barrels per day mb/d

  25. WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX Monthly contract prices to Dec 2014* for select dates in 2009 $/bbl Nov 30 DEC 10 Nov 9 Jul 13 * Futures now extend to December 2018

  26. Non-oil commodity prices

  27. Agriculture prices strengthen on grains and beverages non-oil prices, index 2000=100. (2000=100) Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

  28. Copper prices and LME stocks $/ton ‘000 tons Copper price LME stocks Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

  29. Global steel production rebounds mil tons Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

  30. International Finance

  31. Flows to emerging markets ease to a still-strong $35 billion in November Source: DECPG Finance Team.

  32. Terms of borrowing for EM bond issuance have improvedaverage maturity in years [L]; average launch spreads (bps) [R] cost of borrowing [right] Source: Bloomberg and DECPG staff calculations.

  33. Robust returns to EM equities in 2009 Source: JPMorgan-Chase and Reuters.

  34. Currencies

  35. Dollar jumps in response to favorable jobs numbers and BOJ’s QE USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] USD/Euro (inverse) yen/USD Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  36. Recent pickup in net capital flows to U.S. shows distinct flight to qualitynet flows: U.S. Treasuries, private securities (bn$ 3mma) Total net inflow Treasuries Private sector securities Source: U.S. Treasury TICs Database and JP Morgan-Chase.

  37. EM nominal effective exchange rates move toward appreciation NEERs, index Jan-2007 = 100. Brazil Turkey India South Africa Mexico Source: World Bank, DECPG.

  38. The External Environment for Developing CountriesDecember 2009The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

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