Part I: Studying World Politics

1. Part I: Studying World Politics Chapter I. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Chapter II. Old and New Questions in World Politics: Understanding the Cold War and Promoting Democracy

2. Chap I. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change (Outline) World Politics: Then and Now Case Study: Cold War World Politics Headlines Post-Cold War Politics Headlines Beneath the Headlines Studying World Politics: Policy Makers and Analysts Differing Perspectives The Force of Habit and the Dilemma of Change (continued)

3. Chap I. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change, cont. Policy Makers: Learning by Analogy The Search for New Analogies Analysts: Learning from Theory Methodology Theory Between Celebration and Despair Conclusion

4. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Introduction. �World Politics: Then and Now.� We are witnesses of a tremendous time of change in world politics. The Cold War is over and we have uneasily transitioned from the Cold War era into . . .? The authors use the phrase �post-Cold War� era which is descriptively accurate. Others have called it the New World Order (G.H. Bush, 41), New World Dis-Order, Complex Interdependence, globalization, etc. Importantly, they note that while things have changed considerably, when one focuses one�s attention sufficiently, one finds there remain similar features as well. [Change (discontinuity) vs. Continuity.]

5. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Cold War Politics Headlines June 25, 1950: NYT article notes that �The Russian-sponsored North Korean Communists invaded the American-supported [South Korea].� Statements from State Dept. holding the Soviets responsible; Republicans linking invasion w/ �weak� US foreign policy in Asia (recall, �Who lost China?�); General criticism of America�s non-military intelligence community�then only the CIA for most Americans; General speculation about spillover/dominos UN Security Council identifying N. Korea as aggressor Truman apparently sending US troops (unclear link to UN) What conclusions should one draw from looking at headlines from the Cold War and post-CW eras? a.There are no similarities between the two periods � b.There has been very little change between the two periods�things stay exactly the same � c.Theorist and policymakers really differ very little in their approaches to international politics � d.The events raise different types of issues for analysts vs. policymakersWhat conclusions should one draw from looking at headlines from the Cold War and post-CW eras? a.There are no similarities between the two periods � b.There has been very little change between the two periods�things stay exactly the same � c.Theorist and policymakers really differ very little in their approaches to international politics � d.The events raise different types of issues for analysts vs. policymakers

6. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Cold War Politics Headlines Europeans Unite in Customs Union & Atom Agency (EURATOM), March 26, 1957. The Treaty (treatises) of Rome (c. 1957) W. Germany, France, Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands and Luxembourg (U.K. notably absent) joined in the birth of �a European Federation of States�; sometimes referred to as a United States of Europe Combination of European Steel & Coal Community, EURATOM and the European Economic Community (EEC) into the European Community (EC) We will discuss later said unification into today�s EU (following Maastricht Treaty, 1991) Which of the following desribe(s) difference(s) in the way policymakers and analysts view int�l politics? a.Analytic models (theories) tend to be more abstract than those used by policymakers (analogies) � b.Analysts criticize policymakers for failing to see connections between events and issues � c.Policymakers tend to have a shorter time period in which to operate � d.All of the above � Save answer  Question 3� �(2 points)Why might one expect the �Vietnam analogy� to lose power in the future? a.A new generation of policymakers will arise for whom Vietnam in is not an event they actually remember � b.the end of the Cold War failed to cause policymakers to reexamine their old assumptions and the dynamics of international politics � c.the war is likely to be reinterpreted by policymakers as a clear victory � d.all of the above � Save answer  Question 4� �(2 points)Which of the following is not characteristic of the rational choice model of decisionmaking? a.matching goals and solutions � b.complete and comprehensive information before decisions are made � c.consideration of alternative options � d.clear and articulated goals as the basis of cost-benefit analysis � Save answer  Question 5� �(2 points)What �lessons� have past policymakers drawn from the �Munich analogy�? a.States should not get involved in civil wars � b.There is little to be gained by appeasing an aggressor state � c.Appeasement early in a conflict offers a good alternative to war � d.Moral behavior has no place in int�l politics � Save answer  Question 6� �(2 points)Theories are thought to provide which of the following benefits? a.theories, ideally, help us to explain as well as describe events � b.by providing us with patterns, theories sometimes allow us to predict future events � c.theories direct our attention to specific factors, held to be important, thus helping to simplify reality � d.all of the above � Save answer  Question 7� �(2 points)Which of the following theoretical perspectives would most likely look at global environmental issues in terms of potential conflict over scarce or finite resources? a.Realism � b.Neoliberalism � c.Feminism � d.Post-Modernism � Save answer  Question 8� �(2 points)Which of the following items was introduced to rebuild Europe after WWII? a.Eisenhower Doctrine � b.Reagan Doctrine � c.Marshall Plan � d.NATO � Save answer  Question 9� �(2 points)This school of thought claims that the USSR was forced into the Cold War by aggressive US policies and actions? a.Revisionist � b.Democratic � c.Behavioralist � d.Sophomoric � Save answer  Question 10� �(2 points)Over time, during the Cold War, a set of rules emerged between the US and USSR for preserving their respective interests. Which of these was not among the a rules that emerged? a.use nuclear weapons only as deterrence � b.avoid economic competition � c.avoid direct military confrontation � d.respect each other's spheres of influence � Save answer  Question 11� �(2 points)Whose famous telegram comprised what would become the basis of US policy vis-�-vis the USSR? a.George Williams � b.Kennan Waynes � c.George Kennan � d.William George � Save answer  Question 12� �(2 points)The author of the US policy of Containment, ultimately complained that: a.US policymakers relied too much on Containment � b.Containment was abandoned by Reagan � c.Presidents had come to overemphasize the military component of Containment � d.Containment worked in theory only and never should have been applied in practice � Save answer  Question 13� �(2 points)Which one of the following is seen as a failure of d�tente (c. 1970s)? a.its inability to expel ruling Communist governments from power � b.its inability to expel China (the PRC) from the UN � c.its inability to establish agreed-upon rules to govern superpower behavior in the developing world � d.its inability to establish arms controls mechanisms � Save answer  Question 14� �(2 points)Which of the following events is considered, by our authors, as signaling the end of the CW (c. 1989)? a.the rise of the Solidarity movement in Poland � b.the Pope�s visit to his homeland, Poland � c.the successful transition to democracy of Pakistan, Brazil, and Argentina � d.the fall of the Berlin Wall � Which of the following desribe(s) difference(s) in the way policymakers and analysts view int�l politics? a.Analytic models (theories) tend to be more abstract than those used by policymakers (analogies) � b.Analysts criticize policymakers for failing to see connections between events and issues � c.Policymakers tend to have a shorter time period in which to operate � d.All of the above � Save answer Question 3� �(2 points)Why might one expect the �Vietnam analogy� to lose power in the future? a.A new generation of policymakers will arise for whom Vietnam in is not an event they actually remember � b.the end of the Cold War failed to cause policymakers to reexamine their old assumptions and the dynamics of international politics � c.the war is likely to be reinterpreted by policymakers as a clear victory � d.all of the above � Save answer Question 4� �(2 points)Which of the following is not characteristic of the rational choice model of decisionmaking? a.matching goals and solutions � b.complete and comprehensive information before decisions are made � c.consideration of alternative options � d.clear and articulated goals as the basis of cost-benefit analysis � Save answer Question 5� �(2 points)What �lessons� have past policymakers drawn from the �Munich analogy�? a.States should not get involved in civil wars � b.There is little to be gained by appeasing an aggressor state � c.Appeasement early in a conflict offers a good alternative to war � d.Moral behavior has no place in int�l politics � Save answer Question 6� �(2 points)Theories are thought to provide which of the following benefits? a.theories, ideally, help us to explain as well as describe events � b.by providing us with patterns, theories sometimes allow us to predict future events � c.theories direct our attention to specific factors, held to be important, thus helping to simplify reality � d.all of the above � Save answer Question 7� �(2 points)Which of the following theoretical perspectives would most likely look at global environmental issues in terms of potential conflict over scarce or finite resources? a.Realism � b.Neoliberalism � c.Feminism � d.Post-Modernism � Save answer Question 8� �(2 points)Which of the following items was introduced to rebuild Europe after WWII? a.Eisenhower Doctrine � b.Reagan Doctrine � c.Marshall Plan � d.NATO � Save answer Question 9� �(2 points)This school of thought claims that the USSR was forced into the Cold War by aggressive US policies and actions? a.Revisionist � b.Democratic � c.Behavioralist � d.Sophomoric � Save answer Question 10� �(2 points)Over time, during the Cold War, a set of rules emerged between the US and USSR for preserving their respective interests. Which of these was not among the a rules that emerged? a.use nuclear weapons only as deterrence � b.avoid economic competition � c.avoid direct military confrontation � d.respect each other's spheres of influence � Save answer Question 11� �(2 points)Whose famous telegram comprised what would become the basis of US policy vis-�-vis the USSR? a.George Williams � b.Kennan Waynes � c.George Kennan � d.William George � Save answer Question 12� �(2 points)The author of the US policy of Containment, ultimately complained that: a.US policymakers relied too much on Containment � b.Containment was abandoned by Reagan � c.Presidents had come to overemphasize the military component of Containment � d.Containment worked in theory only and never should have been applied in practice � Save answer Question 13� �(2 points)Which one of the following is seen as a failure of d�tente (c. 1970s)? a.its inability to expel ruling Communist governments from power � b.its inability to expel China (the PRC) from the UN � c.its inability to establish agreed-upon rules to govern superpower behavior in the developing world � d.its inability to establish arms controls mechanisms � Save answer Question 14� �(2 points)Which of the following events is considered, by our authors, as signaling the end of the CW (c. 1989)? a.the rise of the Solidarity movement in Poland � b.the Pope�s visit to his homeland, Poland � c.the successful transition to democracy of Pakistan, Brazil, and Argentina � d.the fall of the Berlin Wall �

7. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Cold War Politics Headlines June 2, 1973: West yields to OPEC. West (especially US)-OPEC problems since 1967 Israeli-Arab war (Six Day War) Would degenerate further in the fall (Yom Kippur War) resulting in an OPEC boycott 8 of 11 OPEC members joined to compel higher prices for their oil and �punish� America�s support of Israel The $US devalues dramatically relative to other currencies and the dollars special place in jeopardy Western countries feel their vulnerability to �Third World countries�; conversely, said countries feel their power for one of the first times

8. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Cold War Politics Headlines September 12, 1973: Allende out in Chile followed by his �suicide� and an Armed Forces coup (Gen. Pinochet). An elected president of Chile is oppossed by American government (Nixon/Kissinger) and a few key American companies What would become an rounding up and execution of �leftist� opponents, students, intellectuals, etc. Pinochet�s reign of authoritarianism, pro-US policies begins Evidence would later be revealed of CIA�s efforts well before Allende elected to forestall his election and various �dirty tricks� Nixon: get rid of him. Kissinger: �I don�t see why we have to stand by and watch a country go communist due to the irresponsibility of its people.�

9. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Post-Cold War Politics Headlines August 3, 1990: Iraq invades Kuwait & its oil; US condemns attack, urges UN action NYT describes Iraq�s invasion as �Naked Aggression�; enjoins President Bush to �collective action,� meaning coalition involving UN Bush Administration freezes Iraq�s assets in US a Bush claims �This will not stand. This aggression will not stand.�* Manifold fears in West/US: difficulty of reversing invasion; Iraq�s intentions vis-�-vis S. Arabia; fear of dramatic rise in oil prices; effects on US economy; failure to act and its effects on upcoming Republican elections (domestic politics)

10. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Post-Cold War Politics Headlines May 10, 1993: Mysterious Disease Kills dozens in Zaire Africa NYT (buried on p. 14) warns of �emerging virus� in Africa WHO investigates mysterious illness and other �hemorrhagic viruses� State Dept. warns Americans not to travel to region America�s Centers for Disease Control gets involved Westerners become familiar with Ebola and other highly lethal, highly communicable viruses Supplemental: similar responses to SARS in Spring �03

11. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Post-Cold War Politics Headlines May 26, 1997: Afghan North falls to the Taliban US govt., who fears Shiite �revolution� in neighboring Iran (recall 1979) initially supportive of Taliban The reality of unintended consequences of previous foreign-policy choices: CIA actions in Iran (c. 1950s); US support for mujahedeen in Afghanistan to stymie Soviets in Afghanistan US CIA and others arm Muslim fighters in Afghanistan by setting up shop in neighboring Pakistan; US arms anti-Soviet Muslim fighters by arming with Stinger Missiles & other shoulder-fire weapons, small arms, etc. US would later come to rue the day it helped create an anti-Soviet Muslim fighting force

12. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Post-Cold War Politics Headlines October 24, 1997: Hong Kong Stock Market Plunges�after massive devaluations in other SEA countries Currency devaluations began in 1996 in Thailand, Viet Nam, etc. The 10.4% fall in overall value of Hong-Kong traded stocks results in sell offs in Japan, Europe, US US concern over trade deficit growing with said countries as US products become that much more expensive to SE Asians and said countries� exports becoming that much cheaper for Americans Lack of �forceful� US response raises questions re America�s influence

13. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Post-Cold War Politics Headlines May 25, 2000: House vote (237-197) to normalize trade status of China Some 20 years of annual �certification� of China in order for China to gain Most Favored Nation (MFN) status overturned What China saw as a humiliating certification process led to improving bilateral relations Clinton Administration move alienates US Left (environmental, labor, and human rights SIGs) and Right (human rights in �Socialist States� SIGs)

14. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Post-Cold War Politics Headlines Sept. 12, 2001: US Attacked US govt. had feared such an attack (likely w/ weapons of mass destruction) for years and had been after al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden Few Americans who didn�t study int�l politics had never heard of either and were stunned [Bolton: US foreign policy begins first �substantive� changes in some fifty years as result]

15. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change!!!! Beneath the Headlines Significance of the Headlines: Consideration of said headlines highlights at least 3 significant aspects of int�l politics Complexity and dynamism of world politics: similarities and differences between Cold War and post-Cold War eras (see next slide) (see next slide)

16. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change (Supplemental)

17. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Beneath the Headlines Significance of the Headlines Headlines engender different questions, issues for policymakers vs. scholars, vs. students: authors note that when India re-tested nuclear weapons (compelling Pakistan soon to follow suit): policymakers� need for policy-relevant responses; scholars look for theoretical �cummulation�; students simply wish to make sense of it Complexity and dynamism of world politics: similarities and differences between Cold War and post-Cold War eras (see next slide)

18. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Beneath the Headlines Significance of the Headlines The complexity/diversity of above headlines raises manifold questions re how to study, understand such disparate events

19. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Studying Politics: Policymakers and Analysts: authors note that it is this very mix of �newness� and �continuity� that makes int�l politics so challenging. Thus the remainder of the chapter will explore �ways in which policy makers and analysts put together the mental maps they use to understand world politics� (p. 11)

20. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Studying World Politics: Policy Makers and Analysts Differing Perspectives: as noted, policymakers and scholars (analysts) use/create different mental maps for understanding world politics predicated on their ultimate goals. Policymakers: following, say, 9/11 they understandably sought meaningful responses, standard operating procedures/routines (SOPs), analogies from which to draw options

21. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Studying Politics: Policymakers and Analysts Differing Perspectives: as noted, policymakers and scholars (analysts) use/create different mental maps for understanding world politics predicated on their ultimate goals. Scholars/Analysts: effort aimed at generalizable theory building that apply to disparate events and lead the analyst to be able to �describe,� �explain,� and ultimately �predict� behavior in int�l politics

22. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Studying Politics: Policymakers and Analysts Differing Perspectives. Bridging the Gap: authors note that A. George (scholar) has suggested the following: General conceptualization of strategy Generalizations re scope conditions: conditions under which strategies-policies likely to succeed Actor specific knowledge about specific potential adversaries; i.e., other states and non-state actors who might present future threats/opportunities

23. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Studying Politics: Policymakers and Analysts The Force of Habit and the Dilemma of Change: Like most of us, policymakers, scholars, analysts and students are creatures of habits. Cold War Era: balance-of-power; zero-sum, militaristic, sometimes ideological interactions in which respective allies were expected, if not compelled, to behave according to their bloc�s operating rules.

24. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Studying Politics: Policymakers and Analysts 2. Post-Cold War Era: aforementioned behavior has been replace by unpredictable, sometimes chaotic, behaviors in which state preeminence has been diminished by non-state actors (IGOs, NGOs), terrorist groups, and �clashes of civilizations.� The end of the Cold War has resulted in optimists who see the basis for new ways of participating in int�l politics as well as pessimists, some of whom miss the predictability of bipolarity (Condominium controlled by two superpowers).

25. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Policy Makers: Learning by Analogy Learning by Analogy: �Policymakers learn by matching the present to the past.� As challenges, threats, even opportunities arise, policymakers�consciously and subconsciously�search for parallels/analogies to guide them. Frequently, the threat arises in the context of incomplete, sometimes information. Woodrow Wilson incorrectly imagined the US and UK would go to war, early in WWI, over US insistence of freedom of navigation. He reasoned that a previous president, Madison, also a Princeton alumnus, in similar circumstance (albeit 1812) made likely a similar outcome some hundred years later.

26. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Policy Makers: Learning by Analogy 2. The Cuban Missile Crisis. The authors note that JFK (it was actually his brother the Attorney General) invoked Pearl Harbor and its putative �infamy� as justification for refusing a �surgical� air strikes�the consensus option early in the crisis.*

27. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Policy Makers: Learning by Analogy The authors take the opportunity to consider decision-making in some detail. They introduce �rational-choice� decisionmaking. Accordingly, the cite 5 requisite steps. Collectively these steps constitute rational-choice decisionmaking: Clearly articulated goals Complete information Subdivision of problem into specific tasks/issues Consideration of alternative solutions Matching solutions with values

28. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Policy Makers: Learning by Analogy The point of stressing decisionmaking is to return to the importance of analogies. They �are relied on so heavily . . . as the starting point for evaluating information and solving foreign policy problems. . . .� They then enumerate the �tasks� analogies perform for decisionmakers: Define the situation by providing a point of reference (no tabula rasa); Give decisionmakers a sense of the stakes involved (by comparison); Suggest possible solutions; similarly, point to the likely success/failure of specific options; Warn decisionmakers of possible dangers in specific options.

29. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Policy Makers: Learning by Analogy To illustrate, they consider several standard�and generational�analogies: Munich: which has affected the generation of decisionmakers who came of age during WWII; Vietnam: the Vietnam syndrome that G.H.W. Bush (41) so famously asserted the US had finally �kicked�; Lebanon: an analogy about assuming one�s enemies view one�s troops as �peacekeepers,� despite how one views them; Grenada: post-Vietnam, pro-use-of-force analogy [subject to massive misinterpretation]

30. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Policy Makers: Learning by Analogy Learning by Analogy: Summary. Wars are particularly powerful sources of historical analogies. [The expression: generals are always fighting the last war . . . .] Critically, choosing an historical analogy is not a �passive act.� As well as situational context, several factors affect which analogy a decisionmakers may choose.

31. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Policy Makers: Learning by Analogy Learning by Analogy: Summary. I�ve already discussed situational context. The authors note three additional factors in choice of historically relevant analogy: Ease of recall (in other words chronological proximity or how widespread a particular analogy is [Munich]); First-hand personal experiences (GHW Bush v. W, etc.); Seeming fit with problem at hand.

32. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Policy Makers: Learning by Analogy The Search for New Analogies: Generally, as generational shifts occur, other factors become increasingly important as ease of recall is lessened with time. Witness the lessening of the Munich analogy compared to the Vietnam one. Similarly, another generational shift has occurred and fewer decision-makers recall Vietnam ahead of, say Gulf War, etc.

33. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Analysts: Learning from Theory Introduction. Unlike policymakers / decision-makers, analysts (scholars) tend to search for generalizable patterns. A bias of sorts exists that things do not happen for no reason; similarly, things do not happen because of some metaphysical, providential entity. Otherwise there would be no reason to study int�l politics.

34. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Analysts: Learning from Theory Methods/Methodology: How does one know what one knows? (Seemingly unimportant but it turns out to be very important.) What are the rules of evidence? The authors discuss the Traditionalist method vs. the Behavioralists approaches. The former old as antiquity while the latter emerged in the 1960s on: paralleled the use of computers.

35. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change

36. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Alternative metaphor:

37. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Analysts: Learning from Theory, cont. Traditionalists: Behavioralists:

38. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Analysts: Learning from Theory, cont. A raging debate in the late 20th Century occurred between the two approaches.

39. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Analysts: Learning from Theory, cont. Eventually, a compromise/truce surfaced wherein Behavioralists guarded against �barefoot empiricism� and Traditionalist sought more explicit, generalizable answers. The authors also raise the �level-of-analysis� issues�graphically above. It�s more than merely academic since it may well determine what question the analyst-scholars asks. As will be seen shortly, level of analysis is explicitly related to theory.

40. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Analysts: Learning from Theory, cont. Finally, the authors raise the Postmodernist approach which rejects either of the aforementioned approaches in favor of understanding �context and perspectives in lieu of pursuit of scientific objectivity.� Indeed, no �truth� can be found. Instead, one may only seek to promote dialogue in order to discover hidden assumptions & distorted assumptions. As will be seen shortly, level of analysis is explicitly related to theory.

41. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Analysts: Learning from Theory Theory: The authors finally get to the issues of �theory.� Heretofore, we�ve talked of mental maps, analogies, etc. However, theories are of importance to both policymakers and analysts-scholars, albeit relevance with respect to the former only insofar as they can be employed in a timely way for policymaking.

42. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Analysts: Learning from Theory Theory: �Theories are mental maps that help us understand world politics in ways that take us beyond the limits of intuition and the listing of information� (p. 20). My own definition is: a set of interrelated assumptions and propositions or hypotheses used to describe, explain, and predict international phenomena.� (Bolton.)

43. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Analysts: Learning from Theory Theory: The authors do get to most of what is contained in my working definition by specifying four important tasks theory attempt: Describe what is happening; Explain what is happening; Predict what is happening; Prescribe solutions to problems (especially relevant to policymakers and noticeably absent from my definition)

44. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Between Celebration and Despair: The authors discuss the schisms between schools�methods, theory, approach�and conclude by suggesting there exist bridging points.

45. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Analysts: Learning from Theory Theory: Discussion of what the authors call Realism (a.k.a. Realpolitik, Realpolitique) vs. Idealism. It�s a relatively good discussion of this debate�in contrast to methods�that raged in the 20th Century. Discussion leads to neo-Realism vs. neo-Idealism (known more as neo-Liberalism in the literature and in class) Finally, the authors discuss Feminist Theory which, as was the case w/ Postmodernism, I shall not highlight in this course. (Students should familiarize themselves w/ Table 1.1.)

46. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Between Celebration and Despair: [Supplemental] I would like to briefly describe an analytic construct (or framework) here that is not a theory per se but, rather, permit theories to be fitted into the construct. J. Rosenau�s (et al.) comparative, foreign-policy analysis construct. The authors bring it up later in Part II, Chapter V.

47. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Conclusion We conclude where we began: world politics are undergoing dramatic, often rapid change at the dawn of this century. �The catalyst for these changes was the sudden and unexpected ending of the Cold War� (p. 29). Hereafter, the authors shall avoid arguing for a particular approach�the student, nonetheless needs to know how we got where we are�but, rather, to make two main points. (Next slide.)

48. Studying World Politics in A Time of Change Conclusion First, to understand world politics today it requires an appreciation of the past and present & a concern for the future. Consequently, Chap. 2 will provide an overview of 2 topics addressed in the extensive int�l politics literature: the Cold War; and building Democracy. Second, the complexity of int�l politics is such that the authors contend no single approach is adequate. �Answers must be grounded in an appreciation for the context within which the problem is taking place. For the authors, this means focusing�later in the book�on regions, regionalism [and what has been called the clash civilizations].

49. Part I: Studying World Politics World Politics: Then and Now Case Study: Cold War World Politics Headlines Post-Cold War Politics Headlines Beneath the Headlines The End

50. Part I: Studying World Politics Next . . . Chapter II. Old and New Questions in World Politics: Understanding the Cold War and Promoting Democracy (Intro Slide).

51. Part I: Studying World Politics: Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics (Outline) Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics: Understanding the Cold War and Promoting Democracy (Outline). The Cold War The Cold War (Intro) The Cold War: A Narrative Summary The Cold War: An Analytic Summary Why Did It Begin? How Was It Played? Was it War or Peace?

52. Part I: Studying World Politics: Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics (Outline) Chap II, Old and New Questions in World Politics: Understanding the Cold War and Promoting Democracy (Outline). Cold War Why Was There No World War III? Why Did It End? Building Democracy: Problems and Prospects The Democratic State Liberalism and Perpetual Peace Support for Liberal Peace Challenges to Liberal Peace

53. Part I: Studying World Politics: Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics (Outline) Chap II, Old and New Questions in World Politics: Understanding the Cold War and Promoting Democracy (Outline). Building Democracy: Problems and Prospects The Democratic State Liberalism and Perpetual Peace Support for Liberal Peace Challenges for Liberal Peace Building Democracy: Causes Building Democracy: Foreign Policy Initiatives Foreign Aid Protection of Human Rights Intervention Support for Social Forces Conclusion

54. Part I: Studying World Politics: Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Chapter I: Studying World Politics

55. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics The Cold War Intro: We�ve now seen a variety of approaches, methods, theories, etc. Often said approaches are driven by world events more than policymakers� or analysts� �mental maps.� They cite OPEC�s rise in the 1970s, e.g., as foisting �economic issues� to the forefront of IR studies. In this chapter we shall consider two issues that have driven IR studies over the past several generations: the Cold War; Democratization. We begin with the Cold War, the dominant issue of the 20th Century.

56. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics The Cold War: A Narrative Summary: Recall that during WWII the Soviets were allies of the UK, France, and the US. How did a former ally of WWII so quickly become America�s most significant 20th Century enemy. Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Through 2.6

57. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics

58. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics

59. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics

60. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics The Cold War: A Narrative Summary. [Supplemental, slides: 63-69.] Before following the text, I want to spend a few minutes discussing Russia�s and America�s worldviews (ethos) respectively. The following comes from Walter S. Jones, The Logic of International Relations, (NY: Longman, 1997). As will be seen, the chapter shall discuss views of the Cold War and�as the aforementioned questions posed implied�the potential relevance of ethos. Thus this short departure should be useful.

61. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics The Cold War: A Narrative Summary. Terms, Concepts, Important Dates: WWII Allies (victors); Yalta; Potsdam; Truman Doctrine; Marshall Plan; NATO; Warsaw Treaty Organization (Warsaw Pact); Containment; SALT I & SALT II. Bay of Pigs, Cuban Missile Crisis, Viet Nam, China Card, D�tente; various presidential doctrines (Truman and Reagan in text); the Soviet�s Viet Nam;

62. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics The Cold War: An Analytic Survey. Ultimately, it is too soon to conclude anything definitively regarding the Cold War. As we shall see, question remain regarding why it began, how it was played, why it ended, etc.? The authors note that most scholarship regarding said questions rely on Western sources and American-Western biases. As archives are opened in the former USSR, understanding of the Cold War is surely to change!

63. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Why Did Cold War Begin? Three Basic Schools Discussed. Realist View and Variations thereof. Revisionist View. Behavioralist View. [Others]

64. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Why Did It Begin? Three Basic Schools Discussed. Realist View and Variations thereof. They cite Thucydides and the Peloponnesian Wars in 5th Century B.C. Accordingly, �what made war inevitable was the growth in Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta� (p. 44). [Discuss.]

65. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Why Did It Begin? Three Basic Schools Discussed. Realist View and Variations thereof. Balance of power Security dilemma Note: states are trapped in a spiraling conflict over which they had little control. In other words, specific decisionmakers made little difference. The USSR set about an expansionist policy�which may have been defensive�that was necessarily perceived by the US as offensive (hence dilemma).

66. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Why Did It Begin? Three Basic Schools Discussed. Revisionist View. Essentially the same with the protagonist and antagonist reversed. For reasons of military-political and economic preservation, the US took actions to preclude USSR success in needed markets and/or political proxies.

67. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Why Did It Begin? Three Basic Schools Discussed. Behavioralist View. Metaphors such as balance of power are imprecise and defined in multiple ways resulting in lack of conceptual clarity. States have decisionmakers who makes decisions, some of which lead to war others not. O. Holsti. Misperceptions Ethos. (Implication of Holsti.)

68. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics How Was It Played? Additionally, they cite research�premised on assumptions of Realpolitik�regarding Soviet behavior: Soviet crisis behavior was generally cautious and conservative; Soviet risk taking was largely a function of military capabilities (i.e., when they perceived themselves as having an advantage), not hostile attitude; The riskier the crisis, the more cautiously the Soviets behaved; The greater the parity in military terms, the less risky Soviet behavior proved to be.

69. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Why There Was No World War III? Modernity: economic interdependence accelerated by the Industrial Revolution and hastened yet again at the beginning of the Cold War, then near the end. The Importance of Nuclear Weapons (The Balance of Terror): [Discuss deterrence briefly.] Note: necessary and sufficient conditions raised here.

70. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Why Did It End? Containment Reagan (simply a refinement of Containment) Soviet Domestic Politics

71. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Building Democracy: Problems and Prospects The Democratic State: What is Democracy? More than academic since, as we have seen, conceptual clarity is important. [OED. demos: the commons, the people + craty: rule, sway, authority, governance.] Originated in the Greek City State. Romans borrowed and embellished. Liberal democracy: from Enlightenment and Liberal Europe from whence Republics replaced Monarchy. The individual is the preeminent actor and, thus, governments are established at the person�s (a collection thereof�a state�the peoples�) behest. It contains basic requisites of competition for political power (esp., elections), freedoms of association, speech (press) and religion, from arbitrary arrest, checks and balances.

72. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Building Democracy: Problems and Prospects Liberalism and Perpetual Peace: This section predicated on I. Kant �Perpetual Peace,� thesis and modern scholarship testing proposition from said thesis. Basic Proposition: Democratic States almost Never Go to War with Each Other. Why? The price for war is paid by citizens in a democracy; war is cost prohibitive. Govt�s that choose war in such a system are typically punished during elections; institutional constraints (checks and balances of Liberal Democracies; bureaucratic constraints of competing bureaucracies (DoD vs. DoS); liberal norms, only in states where citizens allowed to maximize their interests (Classical Liberalism); finally, the spirit of commerce trumps war.

73. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Building Democracy: Problems and Prospects Support for Liberal Peace: Two types of studies: Historical studies Testing hypotheses of causal logic Democracies do not fight one another: contradictory evidence but largely confirmed. The counterfactual (US and UK in 1812) is not sound counterfactual since only after the Reform Act (c. 1832) did UK become a liberal democracy

74. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Building Democracy: Problems and Prospects Challenges to Liberal Peace: critiques of thesis in three forms: The Liberal Peace does not exist: no agreed definition of Liberal Peace/Democracy The Liberal Peace is insignificant: statistically insignificant�chance may better explain Realism better explains state behavior: systemic conditions�international anarchy�better explain

75. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Building Democracy: Causes Simple discussion again about operationalizing variables and indicators. Authors discuss Y-Variables (dependent or endogenous) vs. X-Variables (independent or exogenous) S. Huntington. Four broad categories of influences�independent variable clusters�important in developing democracy (dependent variable) Economic Social External Cultural

76. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Building Democracy: Foreign Policy Initiatives Foreign Aid: does foreign $ hasten democracy or dependency? Protection of Human Rights: seen not as causal but as moral imperative Intervention: Japan/German; Haiti, Iraq? Support for Social Forces: support for NGOs and other non-governmental institutions (SIGs) that compete politically (pluralism).

77. Chap. II, Old and New Questions in World Politics Conclusion: you should now better understand the frustration of policymakers, analysts, scholars, students. Contradictory evidence, different operationalization of variables�if operationalized at all. For our purposes, we need to be familiar with different approaches, how they sometimes lead to asking different questions, hence, different answers, and lack of �cumulation.�