Chapter 3

1. Chapter 3 Stabilizing Population Growth: The European Experience

2. - Fitting that we go from Africa to the opposite end of the population spectrum… to Europe * have working knowledge of the Demographic Transition Model • Remember that the Model has inherent elements that were true for Europe/MDCs that are not replicable for the LDCs

3. - Among these elements are: contraceptives; medicine and medical technology; technology transfer; global social pressures • Fertility reduction and population control “purchased” at both costs to regional environment and global environment

4. 3.1.2 How do Populations Grow? • The demographic variables: birth; death; migration • Total population change relates these variables: P = (B-D) +/- M (text) POP.K = POP.J + (DT)(BRTH.J+DTHS.J+NMIG.J) [where births, deaths and net migration are measured over the interval .JK]

5. Currently, Europe and the CIS have relatively stable populations • Annual population growth rates are low, ranging from slightly negative – to a positive 1% • National populations tend to be rather static, though a wave of migration, mainly east-to-west, has occurred since the breakup of the Eastern European Centrally Planned Economies [Western Europe is not the ultimate goal of these individuals]

6. Also interesting is Europe’s urban population situation --- apart from the European portion of the former Soviet Union, is relatively densely populated and highly urbanized … Europe’s urban population lived on about 1% of the total land area … 2/3 of western and central Europeans live in urban areas …., thus, rates of urban growth are low

7. Aside A reason I mentioned urban populations was to show you some UN data on resource use / pollutant waste • An average European city of 1 million daily consumes: fossil fuels 12,650 tons water 352,000 tons [approx. 118 mil gal] food 2,200 tons

8. Aside - An average European city of 1 million generates daily: waste water 330,000 tons [approx 110mil gal] solid waste 1,760 tons CO2 27,500 tons (all values UN Environmental Program)

9. 3.2 How and Why Did Europe’s Population Grow? • Association with availability of local resources … overall, resource dependence kept population centers small and dispersed … population densities were low, even in the few urban centers that evolved [cities have been in Europe since about 500 B.C. (Greece) – 400 B.C. to 400 A.D. to diffuse to the rest of the continent] … environmental and human conditions (war; health and hygiene) conspired to limit populations

10. … This was coupled with isolation (frequently self-imposed) and the feudal manor system characterizing the Medieval Period … The Renaissance and the concurrent Age of Exploration would subsequently have global implications for both Europe and the explored regions … rise of technological carrying capacity

11. 3.2.1 Fertility and Marriage • Text tells us that Pre-Industrial European natural increase was characterized by moderate levels of fertility and mortality • In addition to the constraints on population carrying capacity imposed by the environment / resources, Europeans artificially utilized environmental factors by imposition of – “no land, no marriage” - restrictions

12. Aside Europe has historically had two land inheritance systems which in their own ways impacted this aspect of marriage (1) equal distribution (2) primogeniture

13. What resulted was what your editors term the European Marriage Pattern … mean age of women’s marriage was between 23 and 28 yrs; … mean age of men slightly higher, but in general with little age difference between the spouses A form of sexual self-control emerged that must have been an ingrained part of social behavior [suggest you read Reading D]

14. The European Marriage Pattern is in contrast to the non-European pattern: … marriage for women soon after puberty – mean age between 16 and 18 … men also marry young, but at a somewhat later age than women … married couples traditionally took up housekeeping in the home of the husband’s parents--- thus no demand for economic self-sufficiency … editors say that this social pattern insured higher fertility

15. 3.2.2 Mortality Decline • Morality characterized by low life expectancy and high infant and child mortality Text: infectious, endemic and epidemic diseases; fluctuated according to environmental factors (crop failure; climate); warfare * In general, death rates in pre-industrial Europe was lower than death rates elsewhere * • Some diseases were particularly bad for raising mortality: bubonic plague; typhus; small pox; tuberculosis; cholera

16. Overall, mortality rates in Europe fell slowly • Infant morality did not fall until 20th C • Rapid declines in morbidity for society as a whole also did not occur until the 20th C Paradox: In 1900s Europe, economic progression did not equate to mortality declines… in 1982 India longer life expectancies were achieved without the growth of economic development (p. 118)

17. 3.2.4 Emigration • Served as a major means of relieving population pressure during the 19th C period of greatest population increase … part. important in agriculture-to- industrial transition economies • Unlike today, emigration was constrained: … ability to pay for move … short-term geopolitical conflicts • complex immigration policies existing today were lacking during this period • The illegal immigrant was defined by a criminal or medical context

18. Post-WWII European emigration has been intra-regional rather than inter-regional [this may again change as responses from immigrants of new democratic countries of former Eastern Europe indicate a strong preference for immigration to the U.S.] • This changes somewhat if we expand our definition to Europe to include former colonies [“mother-country” citizenship]

19. Conversely, destination locations experienced significant natural increase population: (1) fertile age populations are the primary migrants (2) significant numbers of children associated with these migrating populations… provided foundation for follow-up population natural increase Migration breaks easily into three population age patterns

20. These populations frequently added population stress to destination locations … inflation; social services … urban population migrations-housing; sanitation … over exploitation of resources / env degradation … unfavorable dependency ratios … political instability … law of diminishing returns for marginal resources … population growth inevitability leads to surplus labor force, increasing unemployment / underemployment * Interesting that we migrate to maximize opportunity *

21. Population decrease is a real threat to the global standing of origin states (1) population implications … failure to replace aging population … failure to support existing aging population … upsets sex ratio of society (2) economic implications … loss of productivity and human skills … shift in Law of consumption (3) social implications

22. Additionally, MDCs with declining populations and declining birth rates must face the problem of changing dependency ratios … shift from a child-dependency-ratio [ratio of <15 yrs of age – to – remainder of pop.] … to an elderly-dependency-ratio [ratio of >65 yr of age – to –remainder of pop.] UN predicts that by 2025 heavy child-dependency-ratio of LDCs will ease somewhat … elderly-dependency-ratio of MDCs will grow

23. 3.3.1 Decline of Mortality in the Twentieth Century • Worldwide, the most dramatic declines in mortality have occurred in the 20th C. --- significant contributor has been reduction in infant and child deaths [declined no.s of “security children”] - Continued improvements in standard-of-living; medical advances (esp. infectious disease); etc., brought rapid decline in deaths

24. Exception to this trend seemed to have been Eastern Europe where life expectancy values stagnated or fell --- associated with living conditions; environmental pollution; employment conditions; societal stress / alcoholism - Text: one of the most significant aspects of this medical/life-expectancy improvement, are the advances that are taking place in older populations

25. A mention of two interesting individuals - William Petty - Johann Sussmilch

26. 3.3.3 Fertility Trends from the 1930s to the Present • While we frequently parrot economic development and income growth as the underlying reasons for fertility decline, we still do not fully understand it • We must include aspects of: culture social standing education legal standing Text cites that withdrawal and abstention rather than contraception were primary birth control methods [hence the attitudes of Reading D]

27. Text: “Fertility continued to decline steadily in the 20th C. In almost all parts of Europe and by the 1930s very low levels had been reached • We know that during the inter-war period many states moved into NPG population dynamics • Gave rise to: … whether populations of countries could sustain themselves … issues of maintaining positions of world power and the institution of mercantile colonialism … what about the maintenance of social status

28. Many states promoted pronatal population policies meant to encourage populations to have children • Any fears Europeans had of disastrous population declines disappeared post-WWII (aa) almost universal fertility increase “baby boom” (bb) reversal of out-migration patterns [European status now on par with U.S.; emigration from newly independent colonies]

29. 3.3.4 Reasons for Present Low Rates of Fertility • I would offer my own interpretation of this affect – based by Terry Jordan * The Western Technological “Solutions” (1) voluntary birth control (2) proposals for incentives (3) laws changing basic traditions

30. 3.4 The Impact of Europe Upon the World We have made mention of the role of the rest of the world as an outlet destination and support hinterland for a growing European population We are seen how this European population growth was itself a product of this globalization --- ultimately, both processes will lead to the population growth pattern seen in the LDCs

31. 3.4.1 The Demographic Impact • Exploration was of great importance in establishing European prosperity … realistically did not involve the mass movement of Europeans – with a few exceptions Additionally, European colonized regions remained a source of: (1) basic and specialty items.. esp: complementary items (2) industrial raw materials (3) luxury items

32. 3.4.3 Trading Relationships Today (1) independence policies (2) recent LDC development