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Country perspectives on PRIMES - Sweden

Country perspectives on PRIMES - Sweden. Anna Engleryd Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. PRIMES. Strengths: Same assumptions for all countries Possibilities for a ”balanced picture” over EU Weaknesses: Incomplete picture of the national energy system

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Country perspectives on PRIMES - Sweden

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  1. Country perspectives on PRIMES- Sweden Anna Engleryd Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Naturvårdsverket | Swedish Environmental Protection Agency

  2. PRIMES • Strengths: • Same assumptions for all countries • Possibilities for a ”balanced picture” over EU • Weaknesses: • Incomplete picture of the national energy system • Poor or no insight in assumptions • Lack off consultations and feed-back on comments. • Black Box Naturvårdsverket | Swedish Environmental Protection Agency

  3. Most important SE comments to the PRIMES version spring 2007 • Nuclear power assumed to be phased out too quickly • Highly unlikely with a big incerase of coal for electricty production • Too pessimistic view on windpower • Total energy demand in industry underestimated • Energy demand and electricity demand in the residential and service sector is too high • Big differences concerning fuel mix in the transport sector. Naturvårdsverket | Swedish Environmental Protection Agency

  4. Electricity & Steam consumption (GWh) Industry: PRIMES has now increased substantially = not so good match Residential and services: bigger difference Naturvårdsverket | Swedish Environmental Protection Agency

  5. Electricity production (GWh) Nuclear and coal/linite: the big differences are now corrected Windpower: still too pessimistic Biomass and waste: very big and unlikely difference Natural gas: SE is higher but the match is better in the revised version Naturvårdsverket | Swedish Environmental Protection Agency

  6. Steam supply (GWh) CHP: better match for 2015, bigger discrepancy for 2025 District heating: PRIMES has lowered the number for 2015 = better match Naturvårdsverket | Swedish Environmental Protection Agency

  7. In summary • New usages for the model means new demands • Important to build trust – consultations and responses • Better match for Sweden, but still some divergences of importance • Fuel mix in the transport sector still very different • SE encourage continued co-operation with the PRIMES team • National effort is also needed Naturvårdsverket | Swedish Environmental Protection Agency

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