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Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC. Climate Change: Interface with Plant Sciences. Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011

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  1. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

  2. Climate Change: Interface with Plant Sciences Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Plant Science Institute Iowa State University Ames, IA 26 October 2007

  3. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2007 380 ppm

  4. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2050 550 ppm

  5. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gifhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

  6. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

  7. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

  8. Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving Mitigation Possible Adaptation Necessary IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

  9. Tin and Seager

  10. Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) • Longer frost-free period (high) • Higher average winter temperatures (high) • Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) • More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) • Lower mean summertime daily max temperature • Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) • More (~10%) precipitation (medium) • More variability of summer precipitation (high) • More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) • Higher episodic streamflow (medium) • Longer periods without rain (medium) • Higher absolute humidity (high) • Stronger storm systems (medium) • Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by modelsNo current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

  11. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

  12. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

  13. North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program Linda O. Mearns,National Center for Atmospheric Research Principal Investigator Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

  14. NARCCAP PLAN A2 Emissions Scenario HADAM3 link to EU programs GFDL CCSM CGCM3 Provide boundary conditions 2040-2070 future 1960-1990 current RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HADRM3 Hadley Centre WRF NCAR/ PNNL MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL RSM Scripps NARCCAP IAMAS 2005

  15. Potential Plant-Climate Research Issues • Plants that adapt to climate change • Higher yield (seed and/or biomass; above-ground and/or below-ground) • Drought tolerance • Disease resistance • Resilient to water logging • Plants that mitigate climate change • Carbon sequestration • Plants for fuels • Artificial photosynthesis (?)

  16. Potential Plant-Climate Research Issues • Plants that deliver environmental services • Stimulate rainfall, enhance recycling ratio • Protect soil from erosion • Better use of early season PAR

  17. Recycling ratio, R = PL/P PL = precipitation from local sources P = total precipitation Amazon: R ~ (0.24 - 0.56) Upper Mississippi River Basin: R~ (0.2-0.24)

  18. May June Jul Jul

  19. ISU Climate Science and Impacts Initiative Open invitation to faculty, staff, and graduate students to discuss opportunities for collaboration on basic science and applications of climate change and climate variability Monday November 26 4:00-5:30 PM 3140 Agronomy Hall (?) Overview of regional climate science at ISU (10 min) Proposals submitted Funding opportunities available

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