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Team: B.A.M.F. NFL Audit. James Corne Bob Edmiston Geoff Kowalski Jon Schultz. Team: B.A.M.F. How does the NFL manage its content portfolio?. Goal: Quality Product to Max Audience Saturation, Breakeven, Allocation Content NOT Distribution?. How has it Worked?. Value Map & Sources
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NFL Audit James Corne Bob Edmiston Geoff Kowalski Jon Schultz Team: B.A.M.F.
How does the NFL manage its content portfolio? Goal: Quality Product to Max Audience Saturation, Breakeven, Allocation Content NOT Distribution?
How has it Worked? Value Map & Sources Silos & Exclusivity Competition
Where is the NFL? Where are the Teams?
History of the NFL Where is the NFL? Media Timeline 1994 1959 Fox lagging in ratings, buy rights to NFL for 1.8 B. CBS picks up NFL 1987 2006 1939 NBC is first network to pick up the NFL ESPN is a nobody, picks up NFL NFL Network Created
History of the NFL Where is the NFL? User Paths to Product
Monetization Strategy: Silo and Exclusivity Per Year: 2011-2014 Per Year: 2009-2012 Per Year: 2006-2013 $1B $622.5M $180M $650M $1.1B $712.5M $3.09B
The NFL is a Content Producer $5M/year $7/month 2.3Subs $3B/yrrv Xbox IPTV $5/sub Opportunity Cost Competition
History of the NFL Where is the NFL? Media Timeline 1994 1959 Fox lagging in ratings, buy rights to NFL for 1.8 B. CBS picks up NFL 1987 2006 1939 NBC is first network to pick up the NFL ESPN is a nobody, picks up NFL NFL Network Created
Why has this Worked? Avoid Costs Mitigate Risk- Quality Control Extract $ from Winners
Investment & Production Costs? $ $ $ $
NFL Mobile 1999 Text, Email, Web Video 2005
History of the NFL Where is the NFL? Media Timeline 1994 1959 Fox lagging in ratings, buy rights to NFL for 1.8 B. CBS picks up NFL 1987 2006 1939 NBC is first network to pick up the NFL ESPN is a nobody, picks up NFL NFL Network Created
NFL Mobile = $720 M/4 years
Will it Continue to Work? Contract Length Tablets Bring In-house?
History of the NFL Where is the NFL? Media Timeline 1994 1959 Fox lagging in ratings, buy rights to NFL for 1.8 B. CBS picks up NFL 1987 2006 1939 NBC is first network to pick up the NFL ESPN is a nobody, picks up NFL NFL Network Created
Moving Forward • New Silo- Wireless • Exclusive? • AT&T? • Wait & See • Emerging or Established? • Develop or License? • Contract • Length vs. Value
History of the NFL Where is the NFL? Media Timeline 1994 1959 Fox lagging in ratings, buy rights to NFL for 1.8 B. CBS picks up NFL 1987 2006 1939 NBC is first network to pick up the NFL ESPN is a nobody, picks up NFL NFL Network Created
Moving Forward into the Future • GoogleTV? • “wait & see” • In-house? • Decrease risk? • Cord-Cutting? • Length? • Reversible?
QUESTIONS? Thank You!
Key is in the Strategy and Contracts • Strategy: Wait & See, Silo & Exclusivity • The NFL is in a financial position that they can afford to wait for a clear winner(s) to emerge before signing content distribution contracts • Puts the NFL in a great position to take advantage of new technology as it becomes established while minimizing their risks and profiting greatly • Contracts: Length of new contracts will be a very telling signal of the future of the NFL content • Long contracts: Signal that the NFL wants to milk the cash from this established distribution because it is established and not at risk of disappearing or being disrupted greatly • Short contracts: Signal that the NFL wants to potentially get in or out of a distribution method • What kill switches are included on behalf of the NFL?
Contract Lengths and End Dates • TV Contracts: • CBS, FOX, NBC, and ESPN expire in 2013 • Started 2006 • DirecTV expires in 2014 • ESPN rumored to be close to a deal to lock up MNF past 2020 – but hasn’t happened yet • In the news January 2011 • Wireless: • Verizon signed a 4 year deal for 2010-2014 • Will be interesting to see who gets and how long new distribution contracts are for? • Depending on how other distribution channels advance and how quickly they become mainstream could affect the new deals of the TV networks, if they even get new contracts.
TV is Still Making Money Off the NFL • Current Profit: • CBS: $146 million • FOX: $107 million • ESPN: $83 million • NBC: $12 million • However, the question is will this last? • Analysts suggest that it will and that these profits will actually grow as well – but analysts have been wrong before • All depends on companies being willing to spend huge $$$$$ on advertisements
Bring Content Distribution In-House • US Pop: 307 million • NFL Revenue: $9.4 billion • Revenue from Networks: approx. $4 billion • 2010 regular season reached 207.7 million unique viewers • NFL games were watched by an average of 17.9 million viewers • $3 billion/207.7 million = $14.44 • Leave ESPN the most profitable contract in place for MNF - $1.1 billion per year • $1.9 billion/ (207.7 million – 17.9 million) = $10.01