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Conflict, Rationality, and Hope

Psychology of Personal Decision-Making. Conflict, Rationality, and Hope. Agenda. More TED! – Dan Gilbert “Synthesizing Happiness” Cognitive Conflict Group Work Rationality Hope. Cognitive Conflict. Cognitive Conflict = Importance x Uncertainty. “Stress”. Bored/Inaction on a decision?.

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Conflict, Rationality, and Hope

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  1. Psychology of Personal Decision-Making Conflict, Rationality, and Hope

  2. Agenda • More TED! – Dan Gilbert • “Synthesizing Happiness” • Cognitive Conflict • Group Work • Rationality • Hope

  3. Cognitive Conflict • Cognitive Conflict = Importance x Uncertainty “Stress”

  4. Bored/Inaction on a decision? • Create importance/urgency • Think about risks involved • Imagine what happens if worst occurs? • “Lose” time • Create perceived uncertainty • …by getting creative about alternatives

  5. Hyper-aware/paralyzed on a decision? • “Turn down heat” on importance/urgency • Distancing • Put the problem in a friend’s shoes • Easier to see irrationality in others • Schedule time for coffee/reflection • Time = better decisions • Combat complexity/uncertainty • …with cool tools you haven’t learned yet =( • External Memory • Heuristics • Decomposition • Focus on Process instead of outcomes

  6. Group Activity • What types of decision problems in other’s lives… • Result in boredom and consequential inaction? • What’s for dinner? • Taxes?“Routine” not routine • Wasing dishes, cleaning • Planning for the future (money) • Stationary • What to do about your examples? • Result in panic/paralysis and consequential inaction? • Where to travel? • Marriage

  7. Rationality

  8. “Representational” Beliefs • RATIONALLY Reduce Uncertainty • Factual evidence (OBSERVABLE) • Represent reality in an unbiased way • Photos, recordings, dates of happenings • X -> Y • Accepted or Rejected based on observability

  9. “Self-Enhancing” Beliefs • IRRATIONALLY reduce uncertainty • Accepted or Rejected based on • Self Concept • Lifestyle • Feelings

  10. Banjara Ford Pinto Example

  11. Chief Banjara Made a Poor Decision • At risk of reducing uncertainty by: • Shifting responsibility • The researchers made me do it! • Looking for biased info • Subscribes to Pinto Aficionado Magazine • Join the Pinto Club • Weakening other alternatives • Decry Subaru’s as out of touch with tribal values • Creating excess reasons • “Pintos are close to beans, fruit of the earth, also my tribe” • “I like to drive knowing I could die at any instant, I am truly in god’s hands and feel closer to her” • Seek social support • Find other tribe leaders with Pintos

  12. Are you thinking Rationally? • TEST #1: How do you respond to challenging information? • “No sense in talking about that any more” • “There’s no alternative” • “I find this terribly upsetting” • “We’ve been through that and there’s no use spending more time on it”

  13. Are you thinking Rationally? • TEST #2: Are you willing to put your beliefs to the test? Observable?? Falsifiable??

  14. Are you thinking Rationally? • TEST #3: How do you respond to: “If an independent analysis were completed for my alternatives, would I be willing to commit to and actually follow the recommended course of action?” • If “no”, then hooray, you’ve got Hidden Values to explore!

  15. Escalating Commitment • Unwillingness to admit initial decisions were bad • Sunk costs • Affect our feelings of competence

  16. Resolving Escalating Commitment • Set commitment limits in advance • Inform others of maximum commitment level • Discuss with others who have no involvement in alternative • Analyze from a competitors shoes • “The card player up $2000” • Does casino want you to leave?

  17. Hope? Er… “Hope!” • Rational decisions require: • Cognitive conflict (gasoline) • Hope (steering wheel) Hope Defined here is a little different: “Belief that rational, unbiased approach to decision-making will result in best outcomes”

  18. Getting “Hope!” • + Problem solving skills • + Notes and resources • + Knowing how to break problems apart • + Developing good relationships • + Practice/Experience

  19. The “decision experts”(Shanteau, 1988) : • Work with others • Don’t have to be right on the first try • Don’t have to be exactly right, even in the end • Don’t have to think about everything at once • Can learn from our mistakes • Instead of defending ourselves • …or making rationalizations

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