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An Overview of Cumbria for Impact Housing Thursday 19 th June 2008

An Overview of Cumbria for Impact Housing Thursday 19 th June 2008. Dr. Dan Bloomer, Senior Policy Officer – Information and Intelligence. Overview – 7 themes. Life expectancy Demographic Change Health Educational and skills Wages and employment

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An Overview of Cumbria for Impact Housing Thursday 19 th June 2008

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  1. An Overview of Cumbriafor Impact HousingThursday 19th June 2008 Dr. Dan Bloomer, Senior Policy Officer – Information and Intelligence

  2. Overview – 7 themes • Life expectancy • Demographic Change • Health • Educational and skills • Wages and employment • Satisfaction and Community Cohesion • Mental Health and Suicide

  3. Theme 1:Life Expectancy

  4. Life expectancy at birth – Cumbria (04-06) Source: ONS

  5. Life expectancy in Cumbria Source: ONS

  6. Life expectancy – a summary • Life expectancy is increasing nationally for both men and women • The gap between life expectancy for men and women is shrinking • There are significant variations in life expectancy around Cumbria • Level are lowest for men in Barrow and for women in Allerdale and Copeland • Life expectancy in Eden and South Lakeland are amongst the highest in the country

  7. Theme 2:Demographic Change

  8. ONS Population Forecasts Cumbria’s Population by Age Group 2004-2029

  9. GP Registrations Cumbria – Net Internal (E&W) Migration, 1997-2006

  10. ONS Cumbria Population – Longer Term Trends “Known” Forecasted

  11. Demographic change – a summary • Cumbria’s population is growing but more slowly than nationally • Overall growth masks demographic changes within the total population • District trends vary. Eden’s population in fast growth, Barrow’s and Copeland’s populations declining • These trends are forecast to continue • Migration is a key control on past and future demographic structure

  12. Theme 3:Health

  13. Limiting long term illness - numbers Source: ONS

  14. Healthy life expectancy – Cumbria (2001) South Lakeland England Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden Source: ONS

  15. PCT Alcohol related hospital admissions - under 18s 2nd in England 3rd in England

  16. ONS Teenage Pregnancy rates

  17. Health – a summary • Cumbria has higher levels of limiting long term illness than nationally • The picture varies around the county – higher proportion in Barrow • Similarly “healthy” life expectancy varies across Cumbria • Eden and South Lakeland out perform England • Demographic change can be expected to drive health changes • Health status related to levels of satisfaction

  18. Theme 4:Education and Skills

  19. Source: APS Qualification levels

  20. Source: DCSF Range of GCSE Attainment - 2007 England av = 46.8% County av = 45.7%

  21. Education and skills – a summary • Cumbria has fewer people with no qualifications than nationally • However county also has lower proportion of its workforce qualified to degree level • More “lower level” qualifications • Education attainment in the county is increasing • Gap between attainment by boys and girls is increasing • Significant range of attainment across the county’s secondary schools

  22. Theme 5:Wages and Employment

  23. Theme 6:Satisfaction and Community Cohesion

  24. Source: BVGUSS Issues – safer & stronger communities

  25. Can influence decisions in your local area Level of crime needs reducing

  26. QoL Survey 2006 Satisfaction with local area

  27. Theme 7:Mental Health and Suicide

  28. Source: Kings Fund Mental Health Problems

  29. Source: Kings Fund Mental Health Problems Costs: 2007 = £15bn 2026 = £35bn

  30. Source: Cumbria PCT Suicide in Cumbria by age

  31. Source: Cumbria PCT Suicide in Cumbria • Average of 56 suicides in Cumbria each year (11.6 per 100,000 population) • Suicide levels in Cumbria are higher than in E&W • Men are more likely to commit suicide than women • Carlisle and Allerdale have suicide rates higher than national average (Carlisle = double) • Causes: disability; illness (physical or mental); alcohol and drug misuse; stress (e.g. job loss, bereavement) – often a combination

  32. Mental health & suicide – a summary • Forecasted increase in numbers of people suffering from mental health problems • Increases driven largely through a growth in the size of the overall population • Increases in level of dementia, however, driven by the aging of the population • Higher rates of suicide than the national average • Much more common in men than women

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