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Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Rain

2004 APOGCE Meeting Needs – Leading Change 19 October 2004 1400-1530. Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Rain. Special Session Future Trends. Speaker. Annimac www.annimac.com.au. The Three Wise Monkeys.

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Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Rain

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  1. 2004 APOGCE Meeting Needs – Leading Change 19 October 2004 1400-1530 Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Rain Special Session Future Trends Speaker Annimac www.annimac.com.au

  2. The Three Wise Monkeys • The Oil Companies : - hear no depletion • Governments & International Agencies : - see no depletion • And all agree it would be best to : - talk no depletion

  3. Norway (North Sea) Typical Oil Depletion Curve Werner Zittel , LBST

  4. The Saudi Reserves are Seriously Overstated Matthew Simmons. February 2004 2004 www.SimmonsCo-Intl.com

  5. Study : World oil forecast beset with reserves shortfalls Oil & Gas JournalApril 12, 2004 Douglas - Westwood Ltd Cambridge UK 2004 2016

  6. Oil discovery Oil production Forecast ? ASPO Newsletter 40, April 2004www.PeakOil.net Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

  7. Francis HarperASPO 2004, Berlin IHS and O&GJ Remaining Reserves www.PeakOil.net Data from IHS Energy and OGJ annual reports

  8. Why are oil depletion forecasts • being down played? • " Do you wish to : • Kill your career • Head the redundancy list • Be blamed for starting the panic ? " Chris Skrebowski Institute of Petroleum www.PeakOil.net

  9. every 5 seconds : new web site every 5 minutes : new technology every 5 days : new product / service Amount of change now in one day our Grandparents had in one year Rate of Change

  10. Technology: in 2020 70 % of types of jobs do not exist now because 80% of technology not yet conceived Driving all Drivers of Change

  11. Gap widening : Knowledge Haves / have nots Age generations Globally networked Speed of Change : Social Trends

  12. Based on Technology Access Skill Not wealth 50 % population no phone call Gap : Haves - Have Nots

  13. Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds • Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism • authority : in - defer • economic rationalists : profit • material values : tangibles • science as religion : rational • Generation X 30 – 45 yrs • clones of Boomers : materialists • copy younger : sustainability

  14. Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds • DotComs 15 - 30 yrs Sustainability • global identity • co opitalism • relationships • holistic win - win – win • Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual • no limits no boundaries • parallel universes • beyond our imagining • create what need

  15. Gap : Globally Networked • access all knowledge • empowered • confident • passionately committed • global view future

  16. Impact for OG Industry • transiting two worlds - accelerating • values attitude shifts sustainability • Big Rollover value driven • cooperation not competition • young non negotiators • relationships : consumers partners innovators

  17. Thank youwww.annimac.com.au

  18. Very special note of appreciation to Bruce Robinson www.STCwa.org.au for his impeccable knowledge regarding global Oil Depletion and his generosity in sharing it. Thank you, Bruce. annimac

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