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The Operational Hurricane Modeling Perspective on the Role of Research

The Operational Hurricane Modeling Perspective on the Role of Research. Naomi Surgi HWRF Project Leader EMC/NCEP NWS/NOAA. NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process. EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations. Applied research Other Agency, Academia.

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The Operational Hurricane Modeling Perspective on the Role of Research

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  1. The Operational Hurricane Modeling Perspective on the Role of Research Naomi Surgi HWRF Project Leader EMC/NCEP NWS/NOAA

  2. NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Applied research Other Agency, Academia Effort Service Centers (TPC) Field Offices EMC NOAA Research (GFDL/URI) NCO EMC Basic Research Observation System Test Beds JHT JCSDA Service Centers Life cycle Support User OPS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 OPS Support Svc Centrs User R&D Operations Delivery 5. Level II:- Preliminary Testing (DA/Higher Resolution) 4. Level I:- Preliminary Testing (Lower Resolution) 6. EMC Pre- Implementation Testing (Packaging and Calibration) 7. NCO Pre- Implementation Testing 1..Identified for Selection 2. Code/Algorithm Assessment and/or Development 3. Interface with Operational Codes 8. Implementation Delivery Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria

  3. Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge-Inundation Coupled Models NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center Atmosphere and Ocean NOS land and coastal waters HWRF SYSTEM NMM hurricane atmosphere NOAH LSM runoff High resolution Coastal, Bay & Estuarine hydrodynamic model surge inundation fluxes Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer radiative fluxes winds air temp. other fluxes elevations currents 3D salinities temperatures SST currents HYCOM 3D ocean circulation model wave spectra WAVEWATCH III Spectral wave model wave fluxes

  4. Examples of basic & applied science issues, for modeling and data assimilation, to accelerate progress on the hurricane intensity and structure forecast problem…….

  5. Science Issues • Fundamental questions (process/sensitivity studies): • Relative role of vortex vs. environment in influencing intensity. • Role of ocean. Role of Oceanic heat content. • Processes within atmosphere-ocean boundary layer on intensity/structure changes. • Determinants of structure and relationship with preexisting wave disturbance. Relationship between structure and intensity.

  6. Role of inner core processes for intensification/weakening, e.g. eyewall replacement cycles, mixing. • Relative role of physics, e.g. Air-sea, microphysics, convection etc. on intensity change in various environments (sheared vs. non-shear)

  7. Some Model Related Issues • Data Assimilation • Assimilation of satellite radiances • Vortex Initialization definition of hurricane “core” circulation where to take obs? difficult for mature storms; more elusive weaker circulations. (obs taken during RAINEX?) • Physics • role of radiation? complexity of microphysics and interaction of microphysics with radiation • atmosphere/oceanic boundary layer for coupled air-sea-wave problem. Momentum (wave induced drag) and enthalpy fluxes (sea spray complexity?)

  8. Resolution - • relative importance of horizontal vs. vertical resolution for modeling intensity/structure (important consideration for ops) • Coupled Ocean - • advancements to support • initialization • vertical mixing • Obs to support effort data assimilation for improved ocean state (discussed at 2003 Air-Sea workshop at EMC) • Land Surface Coupling- • Complexity of coupling w/HWRF? • Sensitivity of LSM for track, structure/intensity, rainfall? • Future coupling with hydrology/inundation models.

  9. Validation/Verification/Diagnostics – • initialization • requirement for development of verification techniques • all stages of storm evolution; varying atmos/ocean environment • required obs to support model diagnoistics and verification, e.g IFEX effort led by HRD • particularly deficient in ocean obs. • temporal and spatial scales?

  10. Development of Advanced Probabilistic Guidance • HWRF Ensembles • Configuration • initial conditions, resolution, members •  Will use of multi model ensembles (MME) be tractable for this problem several years from now as is the use now of MME for track ?   • Value of very hi-resolution deterministic forecasts vs. ensembles?

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